Colorado vs. Georgetown Odds, Early Analysis & Pick For NCAA Tournament First Round

Colorado vs. Georgetown Odds, Early Analysis & Pick For NCAA Tournament First Round article feature image
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AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah Stevens

#5 Colorado vs. #12 Georgetown Odds

Georgetown Odds +5
Colorado Odds -5
Moneyline +180 / -220
Over/Under 138
Time Saturday, 12:15 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings

Georgetown is going to be a popular “upset” choice as the 12-seed over 5-seed Colorado after winning the Big East Tournament. I’m not buying into this Hoyas team and still believe in the Buffaloes even after they lost the Pac-12 Tournament Championship to Oregon State. I see this as a good buy-low opportunity for Colorado and a sell-high opportunity with Georgetown.

Patrick Ewing deserves all the credit in the world for what this Hoyas team did in the Big East Tournament. They finished the season 9-12 before ripping off four wins in a row over some of the top teams in the conference such as Villanova, Seton Hall, and Creighton.

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Georgetown is a tough team to pin down as it plays out of control at times. It ranks 309th in the country in turnovers, coughing it up 21.7% of their offensive possessions, according to KenPom. The Hoyas can also catch fire from behind the arc, as they connected on 36.7% of their 79 3-point attempts in the Big East Tournament.

Colorado is led by McKinley Wright IV, a senior guard who did it all for the Buffaloes and put up 15.5 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game. He’s the type of player who should be getting national attention, but this may be his coming out party if he can lead the Buffaloes to a deep run.

Colorado owns an adjusted efficiency margin of 23.11 and is an overall well-rounded team that has the pieces to make a deep run.

The Hoyas will need to catch fire from behind the arc to take down a team like Colorado. Although that feat is a possibility, I like this Colorado team to give Florida State a run for its money in the next round.

— Kyle Remillard

How Colorado & Georgetown Match Up

Colorado
vs.
Georgetown
280
Tempo
113
82
eFG%
192
64
TO%
309
81
OR%
45
216
FTR
204
65
DeFG%
82
112
DTO%
313
86
DR%
151
90
DFTR
46
All stats via KenPom.

What To Know About Colorado

A rank of 11th in NET heading into the postseason is masked by a 7-0 record in Quadrant 2 victories. Remove two victories over USC, and the Buffaloes would have no Quadrant 1 wins on their resume. Despite the lack of heavy-hitting wins on the schedule, Colorado finished as the top team in the nation in free-throw percentage, knocking down 83.4% of attempts. Tad Boyle’s team has an equal point distribution from free throws, 3-pointers and inside the arc while excelling in ball protection.

This is one of the most experienced rosters in the nation at a rank of 30th. McKinley Wright is 20th in the nation in assist rate and makes Colorado a dark horse Final Four contender. Advancing in the tournament requires great guard play and hitting free throws, making any opponent that fouls at a high rate a great target for a first round game with the Buffaloes. They are also right in that sweet spot of having an offensive and defensive efficiency rank that sum up to less than 50.

This team can shoot, defend, rebound and take care of the ball. When you do those four things and can close out games with nearly automatic free throw shooting, you have a chance of making a run. Colorado’s compact-ish defense does lead to plenty of outside shots for its opponents, which does leave them a bit more vulnerable to variance if a team gets red hot from beyond the arc. — Collin Wilson

What To Know About Georgetown

Despite losing Mac McClung to the transfer portal, Georgetown came out of absolutely nowhere to win the Big East Tournament, capping it off with a blowout win over Creighton in the final. The Hoyas have senior-laden talent in Jahvon Blair and Jamorko Pickett, but it’s the emergence of another senior, Chudier Bile, that has really unlocked their potential.

Georgetown has size for days so it can dominate on the offensive glass, yet it is much more efficient from the 3-point line in part because it gets those open looks on second-chance opportunities. Turnovers have been a major weakness this year for Town, but freshman point guard Dante Harris really cleaned things up in the Big East Tournament.

I do still think the Hoyas are very vulnerable against pressure defenses, but this won’t be a fun 12-seed to play. After not holding a single Big East opponent to under 60 points in the past three seasons, Georgetown did it three times in four days to punch its ticket. Amazing. — Stuckey

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