2022 Final Four Odds, Prediction: 58% Profitable 1st Half Under System Applies to Duke vs. UNC
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Krzyzewski
Duke Blue Devils vs. UNC Tar Heels Final Four Odds
|North Carolina Odds||+4|
|Time||8:49 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.|
The first half under has netted bettors millions of dollars in profit this tournament — and especially since the Sweet 16.
The Elite Eight and Sweet 16 saw first half unders go 11-1 combined.
Overall, 1H unders are 38-25-1 this March Madness for a profitability rate of roughly 60%.
A $100 bettor would be up over $950 in just under two weeks of work.
While that’s been a small sample size, there’s historical precedent for picking first half unders, too.
And that historical precedent specifically applies to Duke vs. UNC on Saturday night.
Since 2005, when an NCAA Tournament game has seen public action on the over, first half unders win 58% of the time. (Hat tip to The Action Network’s Director of Partnerships Bryan Mears for creating this system.)
“Public action on the over” occurs when the game’s total moves up by a point or more from its opening mark.
Duke vs. UNC has seen the total move from its opening line of 150 to a current market consensus of 151.5.
The rationale for this parameter is simple: Retail bettors adore overs — especially in massive games — and often inflate their value. Sometimes sportsbooks have to adjust their lines accordingly, providing potential edges to the under.
For Duke vs. UNC, the majority of retail bettors are on the over, but sharp bettors and 69% of the total money are on the under.
In addition, the first half under must be between 63 and 74.5 in order to temper variance. Duke and UNC’s is 71 as of Friday afternoon.
This first half under system has a 10.1% ROI since 2005. Since then, if you had bet $100 on each of the roughly 17 tournament games per year that this betting system fits, you’d be up almost $3,000.
As aforementioned, that’s a 58% win rate over a lengthy sample size. For reference, bettors must hit at 52.4% just to break even on standard wagers.
Data h/t to The Action Network’s Director of Research Evan Abrams.