ETSU vs Samford Odds & Pick for SoCon Championship

As many No. 1 seeds in conference tournaments have fallen victim to early upsets, Samford has taken care of business and is now one game away from clinching an NCAA tournament bid.

East Tennessee State is preparing for its first SoCon tournament title game since the COVID year of 2020. The Buccaneers had arguably their most successful year in program history that season, finishing the SoCon tournament with a victory over Wofford to move to 30-4 under Steve Forbes.

ETSU will again be playing the role of spoiler after upsetting UNC Greensboro and Chattanooga on its path to the SoCon title game.

A win for Samford would not only clinch an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament — it would also clinch Samford's first conference tournament title since the Bulldogs won the Trans America Athletic Conference title in 2000.

ETSU's conference tournament run has been largely a result of coach Brooks Savage completely letting guard Quimari Peterson play without reigns.

Peterson took 14 3-point attempts in the semifinal round against Chattanooga. He wasn't the most efficient in his shot selection, making only five of those 14 attempts in a total shooting performance that resulted in an 8-of-24 final tally.

33% from the floor isn't the exact formula Savage was likely looking for from Peterson, yet he understands that for ETSU to make a tournament run — as it's making now — he needs to allow his best players to play without looking over their shoulders.

Peterson began his career in 2022 at Indiana State. He barely played, failing to make even one 3-pointer the entire season.

After a jarring initial collegiate experience, Peterson then decided to play a year of basketball at the community college level at John A. Logan. Prior to Peterson committing to play at ETSU, three previous players had taken the direct path from John A. Logan to becoming a Buccaneer.

Peterson has been a phenomenal surprise for Coach Savage, leading ETSU's backcourt by playing over 80% of all minutes for the Bucs this season.

While Peterson has scored 17 and 27 points in the two most recent upset victories in the SoCon tournament, he hasn't done it alone.

Ebby Asamoah has tallied double-digit point totals in every game for the Buccaneers since Valentine's Day. Asamoah spent his first four collegiate seasons at Delaware before deciding to use his COVID year of eligibility to help ETSU attempt to make a run back to the NCAA tournament.

The combination of Peterson and Asamoah presents a great counter to the Samford backcourt of Rylan Jones and Jaden Campbell.

The more difficult matchup for ETSU will be the Bulldogs' Achor Achor.

Achor is a 6-foot-9 skilled forward who made the trek from Melbourne, Australia, to play college basketball at Samford.

He has recently battled a foot and ankle injury that caused him to sit out consecutive games in late February. The Bulldogs split the games in which Achor was absent, losing to Wofford but also managing to breeze to an 87-71 victory against the very same Buccaneers they're set to face in this title game.

ETSU will likely throw one or both frontcourt options it has at Achor to attempt to slow him down. Jadyn Parker and Jaden Seymour are listed at 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-8 respectively, yet neither would really classify as phenomenal defenders.

The taller Parker is a much better shot-blocker, entering Monday with a solid 9.3% block rate on the season. Still, he lacks the lateral quickness to keep Achor from getting by him consistently, which will likely cause help defenders to collapse, leaving open shooters for Achor to find.

Samford's backcourt combination of Jones and Campbell caught fire in the aforementioned 87-71 win over ETSU. The pair finished a combined 9-of-16 from 3-point range, showing no signs of any struggle to get open against ETSU's backcourt of Peterson and Asamoah.

With Achor now back in the lineup and potentially drawing multiple defenders on the interior, open looks for Jones and Campbell could spell trouble for ETSU.

ETSU didn't earn a bye, meaning this will be the team's fourth game in as many days. Samford did have the benefit of a bye after winning the SoCon regular season title and earning the No. 1 seed, so this will be only its third game in as many days.

The market has already priced in the rest advantage for Samford. KenPom makes the presumed spread for this game approximately Samford -8, making the current line of -10.5 seem a little pricey.

Having already beaten the Bucs 87-71 without Achor, I'm still interested in taking the Bulldogs at this price.

However, I will instead endorse taking the Samford team total over. I think Achor's presence will give Samford and Bucky McMillan's brand of basketball affectionately called "Bucky Ball" a plethora of scoring options against a fatigued ETSU defense.

Pick: Samford Team Total Over 78 (Play to 79.5)