Odds, Pick, Model Prediction for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma: Sooners Will Cruise in Big 12 Tournament

Odds, Pick, Model Prediction for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma: Sooners Will Cruise in Big 12 Tournament article feature image
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Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Brady Manek.

  • Oklahoma is a double-digit favorite over Iowa State on Wednesday night in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.
  • The Cyclones are 0-18 in Big 12 play this season, finishing in the bottom half of the league in just about every metric. But Oklahoma has lost four straight and will want to get right before the NCAA Tournament.
  • See how we're betting this conference tournament game below:

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Odds

Iowa State Odds
+11.5
Oklahoma Odds
-11.5
Moneyline
+540 / -835
Over/Under
140.5
Time | TV
Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings.

Oklahoma looks to avoid an upset in the first round of the Big 12 tournament when it battles last place Iowa State.

It’s been a nightmare season for the Cyclones, who have two total wins and finished 0-18 in the Big 12. There are not many positives they can take away from 2020-21, but at least they’ll get their best player Rasir Bolton back for the conference tournament.

Oklahoma is in free fall heading into the postseason, as they’ve gone from No. 7 in the nation to losing four straight games to end their regular season. A loss to a 2-23 Iowa State squad would no doubt drop out of the six seed they’re currently projected to get.

When Iowa State has the ball

Not a whole lot has gone right for Iowa State on either end of the floor, but the offense has been particularly bad. The Cyclones averaged only 0.91 points per possession during the Big 12 regular season because they can’t do anything right. They are in the bottom three of the conference in every offensive metric, except for free throw percentage (which they somehow lead the league in). However, they have the lowest free throw rate in the Big 12, so it doesn’t really do you much good to shoot a high percentage from the charity stripe if you can’t get there.

In both games versus Oklahoma this season Iowa State struggled from all over the court and averaged only 0.95 points per possession. They likely have more struggles on Wednesday, as Steve Prohm’s group looks like they just want this season to be over.

Oklahoma has been really average defensively all season long, but does not have any glaring weaknesses. However, the Sooners should be able to shut down Iowa State’s anemic offense again.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma’s offense has also been pretty average all season long, averaging 1.04 points per possession during the Big 12 regular season. But hey, the good news is they’ll be facing the Big 12’s worst defense, as Iowa State is allowing 1.09 points per possession. In both meetings, Oklahoma dominated the Cyclones in the paint, shooting 60% from 2-point range, which is where Oklahoma likes to do most of its scoring.

The Sooners shoot almost 51% from 2-point range and a whopping 61.8% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. However, the biggest problem that has plagued the Sooners is they’ve been really poor from beyond the arc, shooting only 32.3% from 3-point range. Iowa State, despite their defensive struggles, has actually been really good at defending the perimeter, allowing only 32.8% during conference play.

Oklahoma should be able to dominate the Cyclones down low and really shouldn’t need to rely on the 3-pointer too often.


Betting Analysis & Pick

This should be a routine win for Oklahoma without a lot of sweating. The Sooners failed to beat Iowa State by more than 11 points in either meeting, but their matchup inside is too favorable to ignore. Additionally, even though Bolton is back in the lineup, the Iowa State offense has been so inefficient and likely wont be able to keep up with Oklahoma’s offense.

I have the Sooner projected as -12.96 favorite in the first round, so I think there is a small amount of value on them at -11.5 (FanDuel) or better.

Pick: Oklahoma -11.5

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