Kansas vs. UNC Odds: Bill Self’s Experience Historically Profitable Against Rookie Coaches in National Championship Game
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Self (Kansas)
Kansas Jayhawks vs. UNC Tar Heels Odds
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(Hat tip to The Action Network's Director of Research Evan Abrams for the data in this story.)
Bill Self's experience will come in handy in tangible and intangible ways on the court. Off the court, for you, the reader, it's the source of a betting trend that's good — for your wallet.
History is on the side of the more experienced coach in the national championship game. While that shouldn't be a surprise to any seasoned college basketball fan, that trend applies against the spread (ATS), too.
This is Bill Self's third national championship game. It's Hubert Davis' first — and his first season as a coach overall.
Coaches entering their third or greater championship game are 19-7 overall since the tournament began in 1939.
And coaches with title game experience are 29-16 straight up against coaches with zero national championship game experience.
The Action Network's historical betting data dates back to 1978. Since then, coaches are 13-11 against the spread and 14-10 straight up.
Since 2000, coaches with more experience are 8-3 in the final game of the year and 7-4 against the spread. A $1,000 spread bettor would have netted about $2,400 since then.
Self is 1-1 in national title games and also 1-1 ATS. He covered as an underdog during an overtime victory over Memphis in 2008. Kansas lost by eight as six point underdogs against Kentucky in 2012.
And as aforementioned, Davis has had no head coaching experience before this season. He had spent the previous nine years as a UNC assistant, which had followed a 13-year NBA career.