LSU-Yale Betting Odds: Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

LSU-Yale Betting Odds: Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament article feature image

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LSU Tigers guard Tremont Waters (3).

#3 LSU vs. #14 Yale NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

  • Spread: LSU -8
  • Over/Under: 160.5
  • Date: Thursday, March 21
  • Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
  • Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
  • TV: truTV

LSU’s Statistical Profile

LSU won the SEC regular season championship with a 16-2 conference record, but faces some off-the-court controversy regarding head coach Will Wade’s reported involvement in negotiating payments for player commitments. Wade has since been suspended from coaching the Tigers with assistant Tony Benford taking the reigns as interim head coach.

LSU stumbed in the SEC Tournament, falling to Florida as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday, leading to even more questions regarding what we can expect come NCAA tourney time.

Should the Tigers find a way to right the ship, they could provide the ultimate contrarian option for both college basketball bettors and those who play in bracket pools. — PJ Walsh

  • Record: 26-6
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 17
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 11
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 60
  • Tempo Rank: 72

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Yale’s Statistical Profile

Though most would prefer Harvard over Yale in terms of academics, ‘twas Yale that reigned supreme in the Ivy League Tournament. A fast-paced team (top-50 in the nation), they nearly scored 100 points vs. the Crimson in the Ivy League final. However, oddsmakers were able to keep up with their pace throughout the year, as their games actually went under more often than over.

Though they’ve been around for a long time, they’ve had little success on the hardwood. Well, that is if you ignore the four times the Premo-Porretta Power Poll named them national champions between 1896 and 1900. This is just their fifth NCAA Tournament appearance ever and second in the past fifty years. They actually managed to win a game last go ‘round in 2016 when they topped #5 Baylor by four points in the first round. — Mark Gallant

  • Record: 22-7
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 84
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 64
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 121
  • Tempo Rank: 44

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

LSU-Yale Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

Of course this is an incredible talent mismatch, and of course LSU is a big favorite to advance, but in terms of the spread there are some interesting things here.

The Tigers’ profile away from home this season was to play incredibly close, nip-and-tuck games. They blew almost no one out and had a lot of luck in overtime to get their record where it’s at in conference play.

And this is a big number. Ivy League teams typically play major conference teams very close in this spot because they tend to shoot well and not turn the ball over. Yale was first in the Ivy League in eFG% and TO%. No one on LSU has been in this spot before, and without its coach in unfamiliar surroundings, I think it’s more than likely this game gets sketchy late. I like LSU to win but Yale to stay within the number.

Early ATS lean: Yale
Early bracket pick: LSU — Locky

Sean Koerner’s LSU-Yale Projections

Sean Koerner’s proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

  • Spread : LSU -10.5
  • Total : 151.5
  • Proj score: LSU 81 | Yale 70.5
  • Win Probability: LSU 85.7% | Yale 14.3%
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