March Madness National Championship Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Connecticut and Purdue. We are down to two for the National Championship! The NCAA Tournament has been a spectacle full of memorable moments. Let's finish strong.

Welcome to the March Madness National Championship edition of Action Network's betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, April 7, 9 p.m. ET.

• UConn: 5-0 ATS
• Purdue: 5-0 ATS

This is the first National Championship where both teams are 5-0 ATS or better in the NCAA Tournament entering the game.

In 1981, both title teams were undefeated ATS at 4-0 ATS each.

If UConn closes this tournament out 6-0 ATS, it will be an absurd 12-0 ATS in consecutive tournaments and back-to-back national champions — putting the Huskies in a class of their own.

Connecticut or Purdue would join these teams as going undefeated against the spread (6-0), en route to a title since the tournament added a first round in 1983:

Of course, that also means UConn would go 12-0 ATS combined in consecutive NCAA Tournaments, winning back-to-back titles. In March Madness history, seven different schools have won back-to-back titles, with there being a total of 12 instances of back-to-back titles being won, including UCLA winning seven titles in a row between 1967-73.

UConn in 2023-24 would be the first instance of a team covering the spread in each of its tourney wins en route to the back-to-back titles.

• Florida: 2006-07
• Duke: 1991-92
• UCLA: 1967-73
• UCLA: 1964-65
• Cincinnati: 1961-62
• San Francisco: 1955-56
• Kentucky: 1948-49
• Oklahoma State: 1945-46

Largest scoring margin entering National Champ Game…

• 1999 Duke: +126
• 2024 UConn: +125
• 2016 Villanova: +121
• 1996 Kentucky: +120

Purdue is at +98. This is the first title game since 1960 where both teams enter having outscored their opponents by 19+ PPG in NCAAT.

The Connecticut Huskies won the national championship last year, were the betting favorites entering this year's tournament with a chance to repeat, and were still the favorites entering the Final Four.

Since 1976, the 2024 Huskies were the seventh team to be favored to repeat entering the following tournament. The last was Florida in 2007, which completed the task and repeated. Of the previous six teams, Florida (2007) and Duke (1992) were the only two to go back-to-back.

Let's start with Dan Hurley. His 14-3 ATS (82.4%) record is the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979.

• UConn is the first team in seeding era ('79) to win and cover 10 and 11 in a row.
• The Huskies are on a 27-6 ATS run in the dance since 2009 (covered by double-digits in 14 games).

Most Consecutive NCAAT ATS Covers Since 1979

• WVU 12 (1998-08)
• UConn 11 (2023-24)
• Villanova 11 (1985-88)

We have 1-seed history in this year's Title Game.

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Including the 6.5-point spread in the Title Game, Connecticut has been favored by a combined 78 points including the NCAA Championship — that is tied for the 7th-highest mark in the past 50 years.

• 1999 Duke -134
• 1996 Kentucky -103
• 2021 Gonzaga -88
• 2001 Duke -88
• 1985 Georgetown -83
• 1997 Kentucky -79.5
• 2024 Connecticut -78

Overall, favorites in the National Championship game are 40-13 straight up and 31-22 against the spread dating back to 1970.

ATS records for both teams this season:

Connecticut: 27-12 ATS (36-3 SU)
Purdue: 22-16 ATS (34-4 SU)

If UConn wins it all and goes 2-0 ATS in the Final Four, it would finish 28-12 ATS (70%). That would tie 2018 Villanova for the highest ATS win percentage for a national champion since 1995.

• 2018 Villanova 28-12 ATS (70%)
• 2023 Connecticut 27-12 ATS (69.2%)
• 2019 Virginia 24-12 ATS (66.7%)
• 2006 Florida 21-11-1 ATS (65.6%)
• 2021 Baylor 17-9 ATS (65.4%)

Connecticut is a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread in national title games. That's the best win percentage in national title games, and the most wins, among all programs.

UConn is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in the Final Four in program history.

If you add up the Huskies men's titles and women's titles in basketball, they have 16 total national championships. Second on the list is UCLA with 11 men's titles (no women's), followed by Kentucky with eight men's and Tennessee with eight women's titles.

The only program with two or more titles in men's and women's is Connecticut.

How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — impact results? Dan Hurley is the only coach in the field with Final Four experience.

Dan Hurley: 2nd
Matt Painter: 1st

• In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 118-69 SU in the Final Four and National Championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 74-46 SU.
• Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach is 69-44 SU and 60-52-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 43-31 SU and 38-35-1 ATS.

Connecticut entered the Final Four as a big favorite …

• The Huskies were -190 to win it all (2nd-highest price since 2000 behind '21 Gonzaga).
• History said UConn or Purdue would win. They were right. The top-two title odds favorites entering Final Four have now won it all in 19 of the past 20 tournaments ('14 UConn).

Purdue is a 6.5-point underdog against Connecticut in the National Championship game — that is the Boilermakers biggest line as an underdog this season and their biggest line since November 15, 2022 against Gonzaga (they were +6.5 and lost by 18).

That game vs. Gonzaga is Purdue’s only game above a 6-point underdog since January 2021.

Purdue hasn't closed as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament since 2019.

Since Matt Painter took the Purdue job in 2005, here are the most profitable CBB coaches ATS in the NCAA Tournament — Painter is No. 4 of 353 coaches in that span after Purdue's cover against NC State:

It's all up to Purdue. The Big Ten conference hasn't won a title since Michigan State won it all in 2000.

This is the conference's biggest title drought in tournament history. The second-biggest was between 1960-1976 and ended with Indiana's perfect season.

A tale of the first men’s 1-seeds to lose to a 16-seed. Can Purdue match Virginia?

2018: 1 Virginia loses to 16 UMBC
2019: Virginia wins national title

2023: 1 Purdue loses to 16 Fairleigh Dickinson
2024: Purdue is in the National Championship Game

Going a step further — 36 top-three seeds have lost in the Round of 64 since 1985 (including 2024 Kentucky and 2023 Purdue). Six have made it to the Final Four the following season and three won the title: 2019 Virginia, 2015 Duke, 1987 Indiana. Purdue can join this list with one more win.

Here is a betting system curated through Bet Labs that details underdogs in the NCAA Tournament who are coming off of a good defensive performance. In the Sweet 16 or later, this system is 67-35-1 ATS (66%) since 2005.

In this year's NCAA Tournament, favorites have dominated, especially the later rounds.

In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 27-28-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game.

In this year's tournament, the public has been on a ride.

• Overall, the public is 44-21 ATS (67.7%) in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
• In the First Four, Round of 64 and 32 combined, the public went 38-13 ATS (74.5%) — best public tourney start.
• In the Sweet 16 or later, the public has gone just 6-8 ATS.

When looking at the biggest public sides in that span, they are 0-3 SU and ATS in the Final Four. No team has closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher since 2008.

Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005

Connecticut has played 33 non-conference games over the past two seasons …

• It is 32-1 SU and 28-5 against the spread
• When the line is -20 or less, the Huskies are 21-1 SU/ATS

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UConn is 33-0 SU this season when leading at halftime.

Over the last three seasons, they are 82-4 SU (72% ATS) when leading at the half.

Once again, UConn trumps the trend. After teams score 80+ in the dance and have to have a quick turn to their next game, historically they have been a bit overvalued, covering under 45% of games since 2005.

This trend was .500 ATS or worse ten straight years entering this year. In 2024, these teams are 13-10 ATS — but it's UConn doing the damage. The Huskies are 8-0 ATS in this spot since the 2009 dance.

The Final Four is in Phoenix, Arizona at State Farm Stadium, which also hosted the 2017 Final Four — the only college basketball event of note at the arena.

In the three games in 2017, the second half under went 3-0, going under the total by 7.3 PPG.
In the Final Four this year, the second half under went 2-0, going under the total by 19.5 PPG.

In the national championship game since 2011, the second half under is 9-3, going under the total by 3.1 PPG and one of the three losses was the Virginia-Texas Tech overtime game.

In the Elite Eight or later, the second half under is 59-31 (66%) since 2011.

The NCAA Tournament is all about prep. Here are the most profitable coaches ATS in the dance on two days rest or less. Which is the Round of 32, Elite Eight and National Championship. Painter and Hurley right at the top.

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