Marquette-Murray State Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

#5 Marquette vs. #12 Murray St. NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

• Spread: Marquette -4.5
• Over/Under: 148.5
• Date: Thursday, March 21
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Hartford, Conn.
• TV: TBS

Marquette's Statistical Profile

Marquette began the season hovering around the back end of the AP Top 25. Two early losses to Indiana and Kansas didn’t help the Eagles’ cause, but they then put together a nice string of wins and never really looked back … until the final four games of the regular season.

After putting themselves in position to take the Big East regular season crown, the Eagles dropped each of their last four games (against Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall and Georgetown), and fell one game behind ‘Nova to end the season.

That shouldn’t discredit what Marquette was able to do mid-season, though, as the Golden Eagles put together wins against Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo and won their home matchup with Villanova.

This is their second tournament appearance in three years, and 10th since 2006. They’ve gone 7-10-1 against the spread in the Big Dance over that span. — Danny Donahue

• Record: 24-9
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 27
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 26
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 35
• Tempo Rank: 116

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Murray State's Statistical Profile

Murray State punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament with a 77-65 win over Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game. The Racers are headed back to the Big Dance for a second consecutive year.

The team is led by projected lottery pick Ja Morant. The sophomore guard averages 24.6 points and 10.0 assists per game. Morant is the only player in the country averaging at least 20 points and eight assists per game.

The Racers offense is averaging 81.6 points per game, which is 11th best in the country. Murray State ranks 52nd overall in KenPom and 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Murray State has played in six tournament games since 2005 and has gone 1-5 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. With one of the most talented players in the country the Racers will look to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time program history. — John Ewing

• Record: 27-4
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 51
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 40
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 79
• Tempo Rank: 98

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Sean Koerner's Marquette-Murray State Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: Marquette -5
• Total: 144.5
• Proj Score: Marquette 75 | Murray State 70
• Win Probability: Marquette 66.1% | Murray State 33.9%

Marquette-Murray St. Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

Ja Morant versus Markus Howard in the first round is a TV ratings bonanza. These teams are going in separate directions, with Murray State winning 11 straight games and Marquette losing five of the past six. There are statistics that suggest Marquette can be exposed.

The Golden Eagles rank 240th in turnovers, 147th in offensive rebounds and 331st in opponent steal percentage. Murray State should create havoc on Marquette, ranking 109th in steals and more importantly fourth in the nation against 3-point percentage. Murray State's offense will have no problems keeping up, entering the tournament 22nd in effective Field Goal percentage and 53rd in offensive rebounding.

In summary, Murray State has the supporting cast around its superstar to win this game.

Early ATS lean: Murray St.
Early bracket pick: Murray St. — Collin