Michigan State vs Purdue Odds & Pick: Target This Total

The Michigan State Spartans likely cemented themselves in the field of 68 with a win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. Now, the Spartans will take on top-seeded Purdue. The Boilermakers, led by Zach Edey, have been steady at the top of the Big Ten.

Michigan State ranks 304th in Adjusted Tempo on defense. The Spartans average 18.4 seconds per possession and Purdue typically uses up almost 18 seconds per possession on offense, prime indicators that this game may have a slow pace.

The Spartans love to shoot mid-range jumpers and, as a result, their 3-point attempt rate is minimal and ranks in the bottom 45 in college hoops. However, Michigan State is shooting a touch below 51% from 2-point range, and even though the Boilermakers struggle defending the mid-range, they do own a top-six Rim and 3 Rate. In short, Purdue’s defensive process is sound and will limit Michigan State's ability to launch efficient shots.

Yes, Michigan State shoots over 36%, but taking so few shots from deep does the Spartans a disservice.

The Spartans rank 150th and 157th in offensive and defensive rebounding. Edey’s presence gives Purdue a boost on the glass and allows the Boilermakers to rank in the top 20 in rebounding — both on offense and defense. Michigan State actually outrebounded Purdue offensively in their most recent matchup and a repeat performance would be hugely beneficial.

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Purdue shoots 54% from 2-point range, but Michigan State usually forces teams to shoot the deep ball. The Spartans are holding opponents to 47.3% shooting from 2-point range and rank within the top 70 in Rim and 3 Rate on defense (ShotQuality).

If Purdue does shoot from outside, it'll cause concern for Michigan State's defense as Purdue is shooting over 40% from 3-point land.

Purdue ranks in the top 15 in both offensive free-throw attempt rate and defensive free-throw attempt rate. That's usually a result of Edey getting fouled, but Purdue also gets a ton of favorable calls at home (i.e. against Northwestern).

Meanwhile, Michigan State doesn't get to the line much but does foul often. All that considered, this game is on a neutral court, which could help Michigan State commit fewer fouls.

Purdue has had issues with turning the ball over this season, but Michigan State doesn't fare well in transition and prefers to keep the game in the half-court.

Neither team shoots many 3s and if Michigan State is able to limit Purdue on the glass, second-chance points could be at a premium. This game should be slower-paced than the last time these teams met, so bet the under down to 142.5.

Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 142.5)