Morehead State vs Illinois Pick & Prediction for Thursday

The Illinois Fighting Illini come into the NCAA Tournament as a juggernaut on offense. They rank third overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, but below 90th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

They will take on the champs of the Ohio Valley Conference — the Morehead State Eagles — in this first-round matchup.

Morehead State is very balanced, ranking 124th and 120th in offense and defense, respectively. The Eagles like to slow the game down and are efficient from deep.

That said, they have some question marks when it comes to turning the ball over and fouling, and Terrence Shannon Jr. might be the best transition player in the country.

The Eagles aren't a bad team, but bear in mind, they lost to Alabama by 32 points to open the year. They then lost to Purdue the next week. Illinois is much closer in talent level to those two teams.

On the other hand, Morehead shoots a ton of 3s. The Eagles rank in the top 25 in 3-point attempt rate and hit over 35% of 3s they take. The Illini usually limit 3-point attempts — ranking in the top 10 defensively in 3-point attempt rate — but opponents are shooting 34.3% on Illinois from outside.

Also, Morehead has issues with turning the ball over, ranking 278th in offensive turnover rate. Illinois doesn't turn the ball over much itself, but the Illini rank 360th defensively in forced turnover rate.

Simply put, the Eagles need to get out of their own way, and they can compete.

The Illini are really good when it comes to getting to the foul line, as they rank in the top 60 in free-throw attempt rate offensively. They also don't foul other teams a lot (top-45 on defense).

Morehead State fouls opponents frequently and doesn't draw much contact, which is likely because of how many 3s the Eagles take. This could create a massive gap between these two teams.

In transition, Shannon will impact the game immensely, and Morehead State is not great at defending this area of the game. The Illini should get points in transition and at the line, which will lead to a win.

Illinois also can shoot, hitting 35% of its 3s and 54.6% from 2-point range. Morehead holds opponents to under 32% from 3-point distance and 46% from 2-point distance.

Per ShotQuality, the Eagles rank 51st in Open 3 Rate on defense and 12th in Rim and 3 Rate. They don't allow opponents to have efficient shot opportunities.

The issue with Morehead State is it hasn't shown it can hang with the big dogs in college basketball. Illinois is a proven team and is battle-tested in the Big Ten.

The Illini should come away with a win, but the Eagles can keep this one close for a while and cover the spread.

It wouldn't be shocking if this game is close at halftime.

Take the Eagles to +10.

Pick: Morehead State +11.5 (Play to +10)