NC State vs Texas Tech Odds, Prediction & Pick: Why to Bet Red Raiders

The NC State Wolfpack had a terrific run in the ACC tournament, knocking out Duke and UNC en route to a championship. They have the pleasure of taking on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who had a strong season out of the Big 12.

A notable nugget from the matchup is that the public perception of teams who win their conference tournament garners a lot of betting attention. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Wolfpack have taken in most of the bets as 5.5-point underdogs.

Another interesting trend to consider comes from VSIN:

Be aware of a total opportunity when No. 6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more, as unders are 19-5 (79.2%) in such games since 2009, with games producing just 128.7 PPG on average and totals of about 138.2.

The Wolfpack ripped through the ACC tournament like a chainsaw through butter, which nobody in America saw coming. They were a 10.5-point underdog to the Tar Heels in the title game and an underdog in all previous rounds, except against Louisville.

The best part of the run? Head coach Kevin Keatts earned a two-year extension and a bonus salary for winning the championship.

It's safe to say the Pack are on fire at the right time of year, but there are legitimate questions entering this matchup with the Red Raiders.

First and foremost, the perimeter is a massive key to the game.

The Pack have their hands full with a terrific 3-point shooting Red Raiders team, and they've allowed their opponents to shoot 35% from deep. They're also 286th in opposing field goal percentage, which is bad news against a terrific Red Raiders offense.

Offensively, they'll continue to ride DJ Burns Jr. and DJ Horne. The duo provides incredible consistency from inside and beyond the arc, and the Pack rode their coattails all throughout the conference tournament.

As good as the Wolfpack have been offensively, the Red Raiders are 45th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It's not the best matchup on paper, as Texas Tech is holding its opponents under a 50% field goal rate.

What also alarms me is that conference champions have a history of fading quickly in the NCAA tournament.

Per Evan Abrams of our Action Network team, in the Round of 32 or earlier, underdogs are 107-134-3 ATS (44.4%) since 2005. When those teams receive 60% or more, they're 34-48-2 ATS (41.5%).

It was a great run for the Wolfpack, but I think they're headed for an early exit in the Big Dance.

It wasn't a fun Big 12 tournament for the Red Raiders, as they were beaten badly by Houston, 82-59. They're a talented team, and I expect a chip on their shoulder heading into the matchup.

They're top 45 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, which illustrates the balance of their team. Not only are they balanced, but they shoot 78% from the charity stripe.

The biggest question for the Red Raiders is the health of big man Warren Washington. If they're without him, they could very well get abused inside by Burns.

Pop Isaacs and Darion Williams are a stronger duo than Horne and Burns. The Red Raiders have a thin bench, but that's not a factor given the Wolfpack are identical in the depth department.

Defensively, the Red Raiders are stingy enough to contain the Wolfpack offense, and even if Washington doesn't play, I think they're good enough to win the game.

The Red Raiders are flying under the radar in this matchup because of recency bias.

If the Red Raiders slow the game down to a crawl, it could get ugly rather quickly.

I like the Red Raiders to cover the number, and I’ll love them even more if Washington is healthy. It was a great run for the Wolfpack, but the gas tank must be empty at this point.

Teams entering the NCAA Tournament off a loss of 20+ points are 23-10-1 ATS (70%) in the Round of 64 since 2005.

Considering the public is all over the Wolfpack, that statistic is even more of a reason to swallow the points with the Red Raiders.

Pick: Texas Tech -5.5 (Play to -6)