NC State vs UNC Odds, Pick & Prediction: In-State Rivalry

On Monday, North Carolina got all it could handle from a short-handed Miami team. However, All-American candidate RJ Davis set a Dean Smith Center record with 42 points and led the Tar Heels to a 75-71 victory.

With the win, North Carolina improved to 22-6 overall and 14-3 in the ACC. It holds a one-game lead over Duke in the conference, and it'll head to Durham for the rematch next Saturday. However, first, it'll welcome another in-state rival to Chapel Hill.

NC State fell 90-83 at Florida State for its seventh loss in its last 11 games. At 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the ACC, NC State is a long shot to make the NCAA tournament. However, it does have the opportunity for top-10 wins at North Carolina and against Duke on Monday, but it won't be favored in either game.

North Carolina has dominated this series of late, winning 37 of the last 43 meetings and 10 of the last 13 since head coach Kevin Keatts took over at NC State. It won the first meeting this season, 67-54, in January.

There may be a bit more points on the board this time around.

If NC State is going to upset its arch-rival, its offense will likely have to lead the way. Since the first meeting with the Tar Heels, NC State is averaging 76.3 points per game. Guard DJ Horne leads the way at 17.5 points per game and three made 3s per game while shooting just about 43% from deep.

The double transfer will be looking for a better showing against UNC after he shot just 2-for-16 in the first meeting. However, he'll be coming in hot, having scored 20 points in six of his last eight games.

Jayden Taylor, Casey Morsell and D.J. Burns Jr. are all double-digit scorers as well. Taylor and Morsell join Horne in averaging over a steal per game.

As a team, the Wolfpack average 7.6 steals and force 13.3 turnovers per game. They rank 71st in turnover percentage nationally.

However, NC State excels at protecting the ball. It averages just 9.6 turnovers per game and ranks 10th in the nation in turnover percentage. Ironically, in the first meeting, NC State turned the ball over 10 times and forced 13 UNC turnovers, essentially hitting its averages on the nose.

While taking care of the ball has helped, NC State hasn't been able to consistently get stops this season. It ranks ninth in the ACC in scoring defense (72.1 PPG) and 188th in the country. It's also 84th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and it'll have its hands full slowing down this North Carolina offense.

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Last Saturday at Virginia, Davis went just 1-for-14 from the field. Though the make was a 3, it snapped a 23-game streak of consecutive games with multiple made 3s.

Davis, who's sixth in the country at 21.7 points per game, has to be ecstatic watching the NC State film. The Wolfpack rank 268th in 3-point percentage defense, and Davis made four 3s in the first meeting despite not having his best shooting night.

Cormac Ryan is another candidate to attack NC State from the perimeter. Though he hasn't been as consistent as Davis this season, he's made four 3s in three of his past four games. He was UNC's primary offensive source in the victory over Virginia.

Armando Bacot is back for another battle with the Wolfpack, and he'll tie the ACC record with his 161st game played on Saturday. At 14.1 points and 10.5 rebounds, he's averaging a double-double for the third consecutive season.

NC State will look to keep him off the glass, but it may have to worry more about Harrison Ingram.

The junior forward set a career high with 19 rebounds in the first meeting, and it's also the most rebounds by a single player in series history.

Ingram is averaging 12.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season. However, he's had 10 rebounds in 12-of-17 ACC games this season. NC State is 192nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 181st in defensive rebounding percentage, so North Carolina should be able to control the glass on both ends.

Dominating the glass will help UNC get out in transition as often as possible. Freshmen point guard Elliot Cadeau has been a primary factor in North Carolina getting back to playing its preferred rapid pace, as it was known for during Roy Williams' tenure.

North Carolina is 38th in Adjusted Tempo this season, and Cadeau leads the team with 4.1 assists per game.

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If you followed last Saturday's best bets column, you would know that I was on the under in UNC's game at Virginia. It cashed comfortably as the game sailed under by 32 points.

While UNC-UVA games tend to go under, UNC's matchups with NC State tend to go over. Six of the last 10 meetings in this series have gone over, as well as four of the last five in Chapel Hill.

While the first meeting this season didn't, the two teams combined to shoot under 33% from the field , 22% from 3 and also missed 13 free throws. Considering their season-long percentages, there should be positive regression on both sides in a game with a lot of possessions.

Both average under 17 seconds per offensive possession and are in the top 100 in shortest possession length.

Additionally, NC State has allowed 83 points or more in three of its past five games. Its average game this season has had 148 points.

Considering UNC averages 81.5 points per game this season, getting to 153 total points shouldn't be too difficult with better shooting performances from both sides.

Pick: Over 152.5 (Play to 154.5)

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