Friday NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds, Picks and Predictions for Iowa State vs. Miami (March 25)

Friday NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds, Picks and Predictions for Iowa State vs. Miami (March 25) article feature image

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State)

  • The 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones and 10-seed Miami Hurricanes meet on Friday night in an unexpected NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup between highly improbable double-digit seeds.
  • Iowa State vs. Miami opened near a pick'em at most sportsbooks, but the betting market has taken a clear side: The current point spread makes Miami -3 or -3.5 across the betting market.
  • The question is: Should you follow that line movement, or lay off? Read on to find out how to bet Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) to cap Friday night's Sweet 16 college basketball slate.

Iowa State vs. Miami Odds

Friday, March 25
9:59 p.m. ET
Iowa State Odds
-110o / -110u
Miami Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Iowa State Cyclones and the Miami Hurricanes will shockingly match up in the Sweet 16.

Iowa State touts a top-five adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while Miami (FL) boasts a top-20 offense. On the flip side of the ball, the Cyclones have major issues scoring while the Canes have struggled defensively.

Miami is a bit better when it comes to distributing the ball, and has three talented guards. Iowa State relies on Izaiah Brockington and isolations relatively often.

With contrasting styles of play, I'll give the edge to the dominant defense and the team that has proven it can consistently control the pace of their games.

Iowa State should cover the short spread.

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Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State forces plenty of turnovers on the defensive end, as it ranks fourth in the NCAA in turnover rate at 24.7%, per KenPom.

Even though the Clones have issues on the offensive end, they should be able to keep pace with Miami (FL) due to their defense.

The Clones turned over one of the most disciplined teams in the country in Wisconsin 17 times. Miami needs to hope Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong and Kameron McGusty remain discipline — as they have through two tournament games so far.

The Cyclones also have an elite 3-point defense, as they are holding teams to under 29% from beyond the arc. Miami manufactures points inside the paint, but 28.1% of its points have come from downtown this season (KenPom).

This means McGusty, Moore and Sam Waardenburg will be forced to drive.

The Clones have a slight rebounding advantage. Per ShotQuality, the Cyclones rank 200th and 218th in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively. The Canes rank 340th and 318th in the same categories.

Miami Hurricanes

Miami can turn opponents over, too, so Iowa State will need to take care of the ball. Brockington is predictably the ball carrier more often than not, but if Iowa State is knocking down 3s, it will offset some of these mistakes.

Per ShotQuality, Miami ranks 337th in defending Catch & Shoot 3s, 160th in Open 3 Rate and 289th in Rim & 3 Rate. This says that even if Iowa State has been abysmal on the offensive end at times this season, it will have opportunities with open shots.

Gabe Kalscheur has been underwhelming from 3 this season for the Cyclones, but Caleb Grill, Aljaz Kunc and Brockington all shoot above 35% from deep. This should provide enough of a jolt to the Cyclones to take advantage of the open shots left by Miami.

Finally, the most efficient shots Iowa State takes are off cuts to the rim. Miami is horrid when defending cuts to the basket (ShotQuality) — ranking 227th —  so even if Iowa State misses 3s, it can find a way to manufacture points another way.

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Iowa State vs. Miami Betting Pick

Essentially, the only thing holding back the Cyclones is their lack of offense. Their defensive attack should reign supreme, and since they have shown to slow the pace of games, they should do the same against Miami.

The Hurricanes will allow plenty of open shots for the Clones, so expect Brockington to have a strong game. If Iowa State can have the edge beyond the arc and surprise the Hurricanes into making mistakes — like ISU did vs. Wisconsin — it will be primed for a cover, and perhaps a victory.

If Iowa State actually has a rebounding edge — where it has not succeeded all season — that is just an added bonus.

Take the Cyclones at +2.5, and play it to +1.5. This game should come down to the very end.

Pick: Iowa State +2.5 (Play to +1.5)

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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC