NCAAB Best Bets | Picks for Tuesday Night’s Conference Tournament Games
Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images. Pictured: WAC logo
Here at the Action Network, we have you covered with everything you need to know for the college basketball postseason.
ACC first-round best bets? We have it. Early Tuesday conference tournament games? Yeah, we have that, too. And the biggest conference final on Tuesday between Saint Mary's and Gonzaga? We also have that covered.
In this particular piece, our staff has seven (!) best bets for the conference tournament games on Tuesday night.
So, dive in now and get the top NCAAB conference tournament odds, best bets and picks, including Utah Tech vs. Stephen F. Austin.
NCAAB Conference Tournament Best Bets
Tuesday, Mar. 7 · Evening Tipoffs from 7 p.m. ET or Later
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech (ACC)
Tuesday, March 7 7 p.m. ET ACC Network |
Notre Dame +7  |
Two of the main storylines at the ACC Tournament this week in Greensboro center around Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
For the Hokies, it’s the talk of replicating last year’s championship run, when VT won four games in four days as the seven seed to claim the ACC’s auto bid.
Just like last year, Virginia Tech underperformed in regular season play and is much more talented than its 8-12 league mark suggests
For Notre Dame, Greensboro represents Mike Brey’s final act after a 23-year run in South Bend.
The current number of VT as a seven-point favorite shows that Tuesday night could very easily be Brey’s final game as the Irish head coach.
That being said, I show value on the Irish here to make this a competitive game and have a chance to pull off the outright upset.
When these two teams met earlier in the year in South Bend, Notre Dame went for 87 points, shooting over 54% from the field in that game.
Nate Laszewski had a monster night, and the fifth-year senior could be in line for another big one if he can once again knock down some open looks from the outside.
Virginia Tech will certainly score plenty when it has the ball, but I give the advantage to both offenses in this game. The over is worth a look as a result, but I am more comfortable backing the Irish to stay inside the seven.
I’d play Notre Dame all the way down to six in what should be a fun one Tuesday night to kick off the week on Tobacco Road.
Pick: Notre Dame +7 (Play to +6) |
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Binghamton vs. Vermont (America East)
Tuesday, March 7 7 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Vermont -15.5  |
For what it’s worth, I like both favorites to roll in the America East semifinals today.
It took New Hampshire everything it had to beat Bryant at home when the Bulldogs were down their three best scorers (all three left midway through the game). Now, UNH has to travel to Lowell to play a River Hawks team that’s 16-0 at home this season.
I’m pretty convinced the Wildcats won’t keep that close, so I already logged MALO -12.5 in the app.
However, I’m more bullish on the Vermont Catamounts, which rolled past the NJIT Highlanders with little hardship in a tougher on-court matchup.
The Cats are hosting Binghamton, with the Bearcats coming off an impressive road win over UMBC as 7.5-point quarterfinal dogs.
However, ShotQuality graded that game as a three-point analytical win for the Retrievers, so we can target the Bearcats for some game-to-game negative regression.
I also think it’ll be hard for Binghamton to put together another inspired performance on a three-day turnaround. Binghamton has been running a short six-man rotation since the conference season began, and the Bearcats have been prone to late-game meltdowns with tired legs.
Binghamton runs a six-man rotation because it likes to play 6-foot-6 wing Christian Hinckson at the five in a small-ball lineup. This gives the Bearcats defensive versatility, but it likely won’t help against Vermont.
The only way to beat the Catamounts is on the interior, as they have a weak frontcourt and post-up defense. However, the Bearcats will try and run things through Jacob Falko, who will run straight into Vermont’s bevy of talented two-way guards.
Meanwhile, Vermont will happily carve up Binghamton’s undersized defensive interior with off-ball cutting motions.
You can also expect Dylan Penn to have a field day with his deep bag of paint bucket-getting moves.
Binghamton kept it within 11 against Vermont up in Patrick a few weeks ago. However, NJIT took the Catamounts to overtime the game before, and Vermont responded with a 27-point revenge win in the tournament.
I expect a similarly inspired response from the Catamounts as they cruise to a monster home victory and another America East title game appearance.
Pick: Vermont -15.5 |
Cal State Northridge vs. Cal State Bakersfield (Big West)
Tuesday, March 7 9 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Cal State Bakersfield -118  |
The Big West kicks off its conference tournament on Tuesday night with an 8-9 matchup between Cal State Northridge and Cal State Bakersfield. The winner will move on to take on No. 1 overall seed UC Irvine in the quarterfinals.
If you want a more in-depth look at the Big West Tournament as a whole, make sure to check out my Big West Tournament preview.
This matchup, in particular, features two teams that combined for just 10 wins in Big West play.
Northridge has been particularly poor away from home, failing to win any of its 14 contests on the road.
Although on paper these are two struggling units, I believe Bakersfield has some key advantages that will send it onto the quarterfinals.
Defensively, the Roadrunners have been able to create pressure, ranking third in the Big West in turnover percentage, creating turnovers on 21% of their opponents possessions.
This will be significant as they match up with a Northridge offense that has the second-highest turnover rate in the Big West at 19.8%.
This defensive pressure will need to be focused on Northridge point guard Atin Wright, who exploded for 28 points in the most recent matchup between these two teams on Feb. 23. This performance led to a 75-68 victory for Northridge.
Even given this stellar performance, I expect 12th-year head coach Rod Barnes to have Bakersfield prepared for Wright in what will be the third matchup between these two teams.
On the other end, Bakersfield should see some offensive progression against a Northridge team that is allowing its opponents to create second chances on 32.1% of their shot attempts.
In addition, Northridge has relied on its ability to protect the rim defensively, ranking No. 1 in the Big West in block percentage at 9.5%. This is an area Bakersfield has been effective on offense, ranking second in the Big West in blocks allowed at just 5.1%
I like a play on Bakersfield moneyline in what will be a revenge spot against a Northridge team that has still failed to win on the road.
Pick: Cal State Bakersfield -118 (Play to -125) |
New Orleans vs. Northwestern State (Southland)
Tuesday, March 7 9 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
New Orleans 1H +4 |
By Jim Root
We’re getting into the weeds here, certainly. A first-half wager on an extra-board semifinal? Hey, we go where the handicap takes us!
New Orleans is playing its third game in three days, doing so with a shorter rotation than normal. Daniel Sackey and Simeon Kirkland, two regular contributors, have been out of the lineup.
However, they were the Privateers’ least-efficient rotation pieces, and the offense has taken off without them.
Guard Jordan Johnson has exploded in the first two games of the tournament. He has racked up 61 combined points and buried eight triples. He’s one of the best shooters in the country, and when he’s rolling, the paint opens for big man Tyson Jackson and the Privateers’ slashers.
Meanwhile, Northwestern State must fight the possibility of rust after not playing since last Wednesday. The Demons have arguably the highest ceiling in the league — see the win over TCU in November — but accessing that potential could take some time.
These two squads split during the regular season, each winning on the other’s home floor. Knowing New Orleans can compete with the No. 2 seed provides some bedrock for a potential upset tonight.
The overall game number has been bet down from 8.5 to 7, and I agree with that movement. However, considering UNO’s shorter rotation and schedule disadvantage, I prefer to go with a first-stanza wager here.
Pick: New Orleans 1H +4 |
Marist vs. Manhattan (MAAC)
Tuesday, March 7 9 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Marist +3  |
By Ky McKeon
Outside of Iona, the MAAC was a giant cluster-expletive this season, as is tradition.
Marist finished in last place in the league standings, but the Red Foxes sit just seven spots behind six-seed Manhattan in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric.
Head coach John Dunne always seems to outperform his team’s talent, and this Marist squad can scratch and claw its way to victory against anyone in the league.
Marist split the season series with Manhattan, losing by 11 at home all the way back in December and defeating the Jaspers by 23 at their place just over a week ago.
The Red Foxes have lived and died by the 3-ball this season, and they have shot well from deep in both games against Manhattan (20-for-41, 48.8%).
Unicorn forward Patrick Gardner, who stands 6-foot-11, is a matchup nightmare and will be the best player on the floor this evening.
Manhattan defends the arc poorly, giving up the second-highest rate of 3s in MAAC play. The Jaspers also rely on turning teams over to jump-start their pedestrian offense.
Marist is a solid ball-handling team, which negates Manhattan’s pressure. On the other end, the Jaspers can’t easily exploit the worst defense in the MAAC, as they themselves are anemic on offense.
This game will be an ugly affair, so I’ll put my chips on the team with the better coach, best player and stylistic edges.
Pick: Marist +3 (Play to +2) |
Weber State vs. Montana State (Big Sky)
Tuesday, March 7 11 p.m. ET ESPN2/ESPN+ |
Weber State +6  |
By Jim Root
Weber State controlled a quarterfinal matchup with Sacramento State last night. The Wildcats impressively forced 15 turnovers and shot 67% inside the arc against one of the Big Sky’s best interior defenses.
Meanwhile, Montana State has been on a mission.
The reigning Big Sky Tournament champions have won six straight and covered three in a row. The veteran team — led by a dominant big man in Jubrile Belo — is playing its best basketball.
But Weber State can hang around or even win. These same Wildcats handed Montana State its last loss on Feb. 9, forcing 15 turnovers and shooting 65.5% inside the arc.
If that sounds similar to how Weber took down Sacramento State on Monday, well, that’s because it is.
Weber’s defensive scheme also gives MSU problems. The Wildcats play incredibly compact and force the highest share of 3-pointers in the league.
The favored Bobcats rank last in the Big Sky and 340th nationally in percentage of points derived from made 3s. They vastly prefer to pound the paint and get to the charity stripe.
The day of rest for Montana State is mildly concerning, but Weber’s contest last night was relatively slow, and only two players logged more than 30 minutes.
The Wildcats should have enough juice left to compete with the league’s best team.
Pick: Weber State +6 (Play to +5) |
Utah Tech vs. Stephen F. Austin (WAC)
Tuesday, March 7 11 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Utah Tech +3.5 |
By Jim Root
Full disclosure, I saw this line and expected to bet Stephen F. Austin. With a full contingent of players, SFA’s ceiling is significantly higher than Utah Tech’s.
Therein lies the rub, however: the Lumberjacks are nowhere near healthy.
Their two best interior players — DayDay Hall and Nana Antwi-Boasiako — are likely out with injuries after getting hurt late in the year. Key guard Jaylin Jackson-Posey has been out for a few weeks, as well.
What remains is still capable of winning a game or two. The scoring backcourt of AJ Cajuste, Nigel Hawkins and Latrell Jossell can explode at any moment.
SFA’s pressure also induced 25 Utah Tech turnovers in their lone meeting this year, a comfortable Lumberjack victory. Of course, that was one of the rare instances where SFA had a fully healthy roster.
Meanwhile, Utah Tech did not have point guard Cameron Gooden in that game. Even with him, the Trailblazers struggle with turnovers, but he does steady the ship.
As long as they handle the ball relatively well, the Trailblazers should dominate the paint and live at the free-throw line. SFA has no answer for 6-foot-10 center Tanner Christensen, and Utah Tech’s perimeter players can also force their way to the charity stripe.
The circumstances surrounding both rosters are drastically different from when these two first met on Jan. 12. With Gooden back for Utah Tech and SFA so shorthanded in the paint, I’m backing the Trailblazers.
Pick: Utah Tech +3.5 (Play to +2) |
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