Northwestern vs Wisconsin Odds & Prediction: Can Wildcats Keep It Close?

Let's dive into Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers odds and make a prediction for Saturday's Big Ten college basketball clash.

The Wisconsin Badgers have been among the Big Ten's best teams.

They notched a solid road win over Ohio State on Wednesday, which is surprising given the road woes for most Power Six schools.

But they'll have to battle a pesky Northwestern Wildcats team on Saturday.

The Cats also won on Wednesday, beating Penn State in University Park.

Yes, Northwestern has holes and needs production from all of its guards to win a ballgame, but this spread is too large.

The Cats rank in the bottom 30 of the NCAA in Adjusted Tempo and run uber-slow on the defensive end.

The Badgers are also among the slower teams nationally, which should help Northwestern — the 'Cats won't be rattled on the road because Wisco plays their preferred style.

Northwestern is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten, hitting a 37.7% clip, ranking top 30 nationally. Boo, Buie, Ryan Langborg, Nick Martinelli, and Ty Berry are all cashing in 34% or higher from deep.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is allowing a relatively high 3-point attempt rate (35%) and ranks 276th nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed. The Badgers' poor perimeter defense leaves the door open to opponents trying to keep pace in games.

Wisconsin’s interior defense is top-notch.

Northwestern will probably not score as much as usual inside and will have to rely on threes for points. That said, the Wildcats rank in the top 20 nationally in at-the-rim PPP.

Wisconsin gets most of its points from inside, either from the free throw line — where the Badgers are hitting over 76% — or on two-pointers — where they are shooting a touch under 54%.

Northwestern opponents are shooting about 50% from the interior. Matthew Nicholson, Luke Hunger, and Blake Preston might see more minutes in this game to defend the 7-foot Steven Crowl. Tyler Wahl also has a size advantage over much of the Northwestern lineup, which could be an issue.

Moreover, the Badgers will have a tremendous size advantage one through five, which should help on the glass. The ‘Cats rank 286th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 178th in defensive rebounding rate, while Wisconsin is much better on both ends. Northwestern won't get many second-chance buckets.

On the other hand, size didn't deter the Wildcats from taking down the Purdue Boilermakers in a massive upset. Northwestern has had issues in other games defending the post-up, but if they could do it once, the Wildcats can do it again.

Lastly, and this is more to the first point, neither team turns the ball over much, if at all. However, the 'Cats turn opponents over much more on defense, which could help in a game with so few possessions.

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Given Northwestern’s efficient 3-point shooting, ability to force turnovers, and a slow-paced game script, the Wildcats should keep the game within striking distance.

It's not easy to win in Madison, and Wisconsin has a size advantage, but Northwestern is an experienced team that can maintain a level head on the road.

Play the Wildcats to +7 (-110).

Pick: Northwestern +8.5 (Play to +7)

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