Oregon vs South Carolina Odds, Pick & Prediction: Why to Back Ducks

Let's dive into the Oregon Ducks vs South Carolina Gamecocks odds and make a pick and prediction in our NCAA Tournament betting preview for Thursday, March 21.

It's finally here! The NCAA Tournament is in full swing on Thursday, and one of the better early-day matchups is the No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks against the No. 11 Oregon Ducks.

Let's dive into this 4 p.m. ET matchup that will be broadcast on TNT.

The Ducks used a miracle run in Vegas to steal an NCAA Tournament bid. They had a double-digit comeback against Arizona and held Colorado to fewer than 70 points in the Pac-12 Championship game.

The Ducks' defense ranks 70th in Adjusted Efficiency, limiting all three conference tourney opponents to fewer than 70 points and less than 1.05 PPP.

Now the question is if Oregon's defensive resurgence is a byproduct of a small sample size, or if it's legit.

I have some concerns. Oregon ranks outside the top 210 nationally in 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages. However, opponents shot worse than 30% against the Ducks in the three conference tourney games. Is that just old-fashioned regression that will revert to the norm? Only time will tell.

The encouraging thing about Oregon is the play from big man N'Faly Dante, a former five-star recruit who's dealt with multiple injuries in five college seasons. Dante is finally healthy and looking phenomenal, as he scored 25 points on 12-of-12 shooting against the Buffs.

I don't see how South Carolina defends the dominance from Dante. B.J. Mack and Collin Murray-Boyles are both solid, but they're giving up significant length against Dante, which means Oregon's stud big man will carve up South Carolina's interior.

Dana Altman needs his guards to win the battle in the backcourt. Freshman sensation Jackson Shelstad scored 14+ points in each of the three conference tourney games, and Jermaine Couisnard made an impact as a playmaker, despite shooting below 30% from the floor in each game.

You have to imagine Couisnard has a different kind of thought process entering this one, as it's his only tournament appearance against his former team. Couisnard is shooting 38% from the floor and 32% from 3, but he needs an efficient scoring game in this one.

Lamont Paris had an unreal second season in Columbia, winning 26 games and leading the Gamecocks to a single-digit NCAA Tournament seed. I don't think anyone saw Paris likely winning National Coach of the Year when the SEC preseason poll tabbed South Carolina last in the conference.

People credit South Carolina's defense for the team's impressive season, but the Gamecocks' offense ranks eight spots better in KenPom's Adjusted Efficiency metrics. The Gamecocks' defense is particularly strong defending 2-point shots; opponents shoot just 46% from 2-point range against them.

You can credit Mack and Murray-Boyles for the strong interior defense.

South Carolina will rely on All-Conference guards Meechie Johnson Jr. and Ta'lon Cooper. Johnson, a smooth player from Cleveland, is known for his scoring prowess, but he shot just 39% from the field and 31% from 3.

If Johnson shoots it well, the Gamecocks have a good chance to top the Ducks. If not, I'm not sure where the scoring comes from.

Cooper is the team's best shooter on a percentage basis, connecting on 45% of his shots from 3. He's more a floor general and defender than a scorer, though. He'll likely draw the matchup on a former Gamecock guard, Couisnard.

Additionally, South Carolina is a 3-point shooting team, as it shoots treys on 41% of its field goals while connecting on just 33% of those shots.

South Carolina needs Johnson as the primary shooter, but Myles Stute is another key option. However, he missed South Carolina's conference tournament loss against Auburn. We'll see if he suits up against the Ducks.

A stat of note: South Carolina scored fewer than 70 points in all seven losses this season, so it desperately needs to hit that number.

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This is the classic 11 vs. 6 game, with the spread sitting very close to even.

South Carolina is a one-point favorite, so I'm rolling with the Ducks on the ML.

I think the Gamecocks are a bit overrated from a seeding perspective. They have the worst KenPom rating of any six seed, and Oregon can exploit them by limiting perimeter shooting and establishing Dante in the paint.

Pick: Oregon ML -105

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