Pitt vs Duke Prediction, Odds: Blue Devils to Roll at Home

Jeff Capel will return to his old stomping grounds at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday when the Pittsburgh Panthers look to get off the mat after starting 1-5 straight-up and against the spread in ACC play. Duke, on the other hand, has been rolling, and head coach Jon Scheyer would love to hand his former colleague another loss.

Duke smashed Pitt on the road a mere 10 days ago, winning by 22 and never trailing. The Blue Devils dominated the game inside and out on both ends of the floor, leading by as many as 34 before Scheyer finally called off the dogs.

In arguably the toughest home venue in college basketball, does Pitt stand a chance to compete? Let's take a look in our Pitt vs. Duke preview and prediction.

Everything went wrong for Pitt in the first game between these teams, but shooting and defensive rebounding stood out. While Pitt has been an overall good defensive rebounding team this season, it has gotten crushed against more physical opponents. In the ACC, Duke, UNC and Clemson have had their way with the Panthers on the boards.

Shooting has been an issue all conference season. The Panthers rank dead last in the ACC in free-throw percentage and 2-point percentage and rank 12th in 3-point percentage. On the other end, opponents are hitting 39.4% of their 3s against Pitt (third-highest mark in the league) and are nearly 80% from the line (highest in the ACC). Shooting regression is coming — the question is when.

But regression alone cannot save Pitt in this one. Most of the Panthers' shot attempts against the Blue Devils were forced and contested. Duke’s ability to switch everything stymied Pitt, and Scheyer’s gameplan to take away Blake Hinson was well-executed. Pitt spreads the floor wide, often going 5-out on the perimeter, which can be challenging for most teams to defend. However, the Blue Devils are built to combat it, and they will look to once again force Pitt into tough shots. Pitt guards Jaland Lowe and Carlton Carrington could not take advantage when bigs switched onto them, setting for mid-range jumpers.

The Panthers rely on jump shots to carry their offense. If shots aren’t falling, second-chance opportunities will be hard to come by against a solid Duke rebounding squad. Interior play really isn’t an option for Pitt, and Duke has plenty of athleticism and length on the back end. The normal advantages created by Pitt with ball-screen action are easily defended by Duke because of its versatility across all five spots.

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Duke might be due for some shooting regression after hitting nine 3s in the first half at Pitt. But a lot of those looks were clean, as the Blue Devils moved the ball without issue against an overmatched Pitt defense. Having multiple ball-handlers on the floor at once makes Duke an incredibly difficult team to stop on this end.

Duke has been firing on all cylinders in ACC play, ranking top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency through five games. The Blue Devils don’t turn it over, the have five deadly shooters they can rotate in and out of the lineup, they protect the glass, they move the ball well and they can force turnovers on the defensive end.

Kyle Filipowski is also a massive problem for Pitt, as proven by his 26-point, 10-rebound performance in the last matchup with the Panthers. It was man versus boys with Filipowski against Pitt’s frontline, as he scored in every which way imaginable, toying with Federiko Federiko and the Diaz Graham twins.

Pitt also couldn’t handle Duke in ball-screen action, with which the Blue Devils scored a ridiculous 1.44 points per possession against the Panthers. With Caleb Foster, Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain all able to attack off the dribble and multiple shooters spacing the floor – including oftentimes the screener himself – defending Duke in the pick-and-roll is often an impossible task.

The one negative against Duke tonight is potential injury trouble. Mark Mitchell is likely out after missing the Georgia Tech game, and there is a chance Roach can’t go. Scheyer said both are day-to-day, with Roach being able to do on-court work this week. While both players are key for Duke, Scheyer has plenty of depth to rotate in.

It's hard to watch the first game between these two teams and do anything but back the Blue Devils, but it’s important to contextualize that game properly and determine if the performance is repeatable. Given the looks Duke was able to get versus Pitt and the way Duke seems perfectly built to counter Pitt’s attack, the Blue Devils seem poised to repeat their dominant play.

As a counter, if you’re into trends, Capel is 2-0 against the number at Cameron Indoor as Pitt’s head coach. Take that for what you will on a small sample size. No doubt he will have his locker room motivated after getting thoroughly embarrassed less than two weeks ago on their home floor.

Ultimately, Duke matches up too well with Pitt to ignore in this situation. If betting on either side, pay attention to injury news, as information on either Mitchell or Roach could shift the line. If you’re a hopeful Duke bettor regardless of personnel – as I will be – it might be best to hope one or both are out in order to get a lower number. Injuries have often been and will continue to be mispriced and overvalued this season.

Pick: Duke -12

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