Purdue vs Wisconsin Odds, Pick: Top-10 Big Ten Duel

Purdue vs Wisconsin Odds, Pick: Top-10 Big Ten Duel article feature image

John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Wisconsin’s Chucky Hepburn

Purdue vs Wisconsin Odds

Sunday, Feb. 4
1 p.m. ET
Purdue Odds
Point SpreadTotal PointsMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Wisconsin Odds
Point SpreadTotal PointsMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

It is the battle for first place in the Big Ten Conference at the Kohl's Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin had a complete meltdown on Thursday night against Nebraska, so it will be hungry to bounce back.

Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off an OT effort of its own, defeating Northwestern. Now, it has the chance to control its destiny in the Big Ten conference.

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Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers are bound for another March collapse if they don't get their act together. They attempted 46 free throws in their OT victory and made only 29 of them.

They rank 180th in free-throw percentage, which is something to monitor for the matchup. The game against the Badgers is bound to be a close contest, so they must do a better job at the charity stripe.

The situational spot is not working in the Boilermakers' favor. Not only is winning on the road in the Big Ten difficult, but the Badgers will have a bad taste in their mouth from the last game.

Besides their poor free-throw shooting, they're the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency team. They're shooting 40% from beyond the arc, but the metrics suggest negative regression is imminent in that area.

Zach Edey is a nightmare matchup for any opposing team, and he's bound to put up his typical big numbers. The Badgers have a mediocre defensive interior, so expect double teams in the low post thrown Edey's way.

The Boilermakers must capitalize from the outside because the Badgers are 305th in opponent 3-point percentage. Their perimeter defense is not as bad as that metric suggests, but regardless, 3-point shooting will likely decide the outcome.

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Wisconsin Badgers

It was a complete meltdown for Wisconsin in Lincoln on Thursday evening. The Badgers had multiple big leads throughout the game but somehow ended up faltering in OT.

This is not a typical Badgers team. They're much better on offense as opposed to defense. They are also by far the stronger free-throw shooting team in Sunday's matchup.

There's no mystery regarding the keys to the game for the Badgers. Forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl must contain Edey to give their team a chance.

If the Badgers lose the battle inside, their guard play becomes crucial. Guards Max Klesmit and Chucky Hepburn need to exploit the Boilermakers from outside of the paint.

The Badgers offense should get plenty of clean offensive possessions during the matchup, as the Boilermakers don't force turnovers. They're not going to get many second-scoring chances, so they must slow the game down and make it a half-court battle.

The Boilermakers are due for negative regression on the offensive end, according to ShotQuality. The Badgers defense is in store for more fortune, so it should work out in their favor if it comes to fruition.

The situational spot is a huge perk for the Badgers, but their offense has the talent to take over the contest. Forward AJ Storr is playing like an All-American, and he might be the best player on the floor besides Edey.

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Purdue vs. Wisconsin

Betting Pick & Prediction

There's a legitimate concern for the Badgers defense in the matchup, but their offense is talented enough to overcome that. The defense is also not as bad as the metrics suggest, so the Boilermakers could look flat.

In my Wisconsin vs. Nebraska piece, I suggested that the ideal scenario would be the Badgers losing the game so they have the bounce-back opportunity. They not only lost, but it was a massive meltdown.

Wisconsin is an excellent team at home, and it knows what's at stake in the matchup. It's time to buy the Badgers and cash in on that brewing negative regression headed the Boilermakers' way.

Pick: Wisconsin +2

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Nick Sterling
Jun 25, 2024 UTC