Purdue vs. North Texas Odds, Early Analysis & Pick For NCAA Tournament First Round

Purdue vs. North Texas Odds, Early Analysis & Pick For NCAA Tournament First Round article feature image
Credit:

G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevion Williams.

  • Opening odds for Purdue vs. North Texas are out, with the Boilermakers favored by nearly double digits.
  • Tanner McGrath thinks it's a good buy low spot on Purdue, who could make an NCAA Tournament run and shouldn't be popular in bracket pools.

#4 Purdue vs. #13 North Texas Odds

North Texas Odds +8
Purdue Odds -8
Moneyline +310 / -400
Over/Under 126.5
Time Friday, 7:25 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds as of Sunday and via BetMGM

How Purdue & North Texas Match Up

Purdue
vs.
North Texas
274
Tempo
350
98
eFG%
39
165
TO%
244
50
OR%
174
158
FTR
282
108
DeFG%
20
284
DTO%
53
34
DR%
136
149
DFTR
178
All stats via KenPom.

Purdue-North Texas Instant Analysis

Purdue is a bit of a sleeper in this tournament.

While it dropped the first game in the Big Ten Tournament to a very talented Ohio State team, Purdue went 5-0 straight up and against the spread in its final five regular season games. Matt Painter has his guys playing well at the right time.

Purdue has an awesome young core paired with veterans, and they all play well together. The Boilermakers were solid at everything this season, finishing fifth in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency.

Plus, the Boilermakers are led by a top-10 player in Trevion Williams. Williams averaged 15.6 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting over 45% from the field this season. He finished seventh in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings.

After dropping its final three regular-season games, North Texas made a miracle run in the C-USA Tournament. The Mean Green won four games in four days to earn their NCAA Tournament berth, upsetting Western Kentucky in a dramatic final.

The Mean Green probably peaked after that run. Therefore, I think this is a good spot to buy low on Purdue and sell high on North Texas. — Tanner McGrath

What To Know About Purdue

Purdue did sweep its regular-season series with Ohio State, which is indeed an impressive feat. And furthermore, the Boilermakers hung tough in a number of tough losses. Given the staggering depth of the Big Ten this season, it’s expected that teams like Purdue are going to get a bit chewed up during conference play.

But — while those concessions may be reasonable — they are also damning, at least insofar as a potential Final Four run is concerned. Trevion Williams is a double-double machine, but I’m hard-pressed to back a team that features a 6-foot-10, 265-pound big man as its chief offensive weapon come tournament time.

Williams ranks first in the country in percentage of shots taken (37.3%) for his respective team, per KenPom. Purdue also ranks 285th in Adjusted Tempo. The playbook is straightforward enough: Feed Williams on the block, crash the boards, milk the clock, and grind out a win in the final five minutes of regulation.

That strategy may have been good enough to sweep the Buckeyes during the regular season, but it’s not a paradigm I trust on a two-day turnaround entering the Round of 32 or the Elite Eight. — Ryan Collinsworth

What To Know About North Texas

The Mean Green have one of the most experienced rosters in the country and are led by one of the most underrated coaches in Grant McCasland.

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North Texas earns its money on the defensive end, where it ranks in the 94th percentile in points per possession allowed in the half court, per Synergy. In three games in the conference tournament, opponents have scored 56, 55 and 48 points. The Mean Green are relentless on that end of the floor, consistently forcing opponents into bad shots.

And while the offense doesn’t put up extremely gaudy numbers, that’s more of a result of their snail-like pace (347th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom). Ultimately, it’s a fairly efficient unit (especially in transition when they do actually run), led by the inside-out senior duo of guard Javion Hamlet and big man Zachary Simmons.

That said, they aren’t a great offensive rebounding team (partly by design) and have been plagued by turnover issues throughout the season. — Stuckey

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