NCAAB Odds, Pick for SMU vs FAU: Count on the Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs and the Florida Atlantic Owls are both in contention at the top of the AAC. SMU is riding a six-game winning streak, while the Owls just dropped a crucial conference matchup to South Florida.

Most bracketologists like FAU’s resume, but even still, its defense has caused it issues throughout the season.

SMU is a much more balanced team than the Owls and can limit FAU’s open looks defensively.

The Mustangs typically don't take many 3s, but they're hitting about 36% from deep. They don't necessarily rank well in Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, but they have Jalen Smith and Chuck Harris as usual suspects on the perimeter.

This should provide a boost against an FAU defense that's permitting opponents to shoot almost 34% from the outside. Adding on, FAU ranks even more poorly on defense in Open 3 Rate than SMU on offense, so this should negate SMU’s issues with getting open from deep.

Most of SMU’s shots will come from 2-point range, though. The Mustangs rank in the top 50 in finishing at the rim, per ShotQuality, while FAU ranks 271st defensively.

Much of SMU’s offensive usage happens through the pick-and-roll, and the Owls are below average in defending those sets. Look for the Mustangs to manufacture buckets off of this.

SMU’s best offensive attribute might be rebounding, as it ranks in the top 10 in offensive boards. FAU can also crash offensively, but it struggles defensively (similarly to SMU).

Since these two are so comparable on the glass, the Mustangs and the Owls should be about even on put-back opportunities, pending how well each is shooting the ball.

FAU’s offense is top-15 in the NCAA for a reason. The Owls are even better than SMU from deep and have four consistent options shooting above 35% from 3: Brandon Weatherspoon, Nick Boyd, Alijah Martin and Johnell Davis.

That said, the Mustangs are holding opponents to 30.2% from outside, even if they're about average in allowed 3-point attempt rate.

Additionally, SMU ranks very well in Open 3 Rate, so it should have the antidote to FAU’s outside shots.

FAU can shoot from inside, too, ranking in the top 25 from 2-point range. However, SMU is holding opponents to 45.3% from 2-point land. This should cut into what would otherwise be an offensive advantage for the Owls.

FAU typically doesn't make too many mistakes on offense, but the Mustangs are good at forcing turnovers. In addition, if the Owls turn over the basketball, SMU is great in transition. The Mustangs can get out in transition easily and put pressure on the opponent.

In this case, the opponent is SMU, and it can't defend in transition whatsoever. It's been a problem for the Mustangs all year, and it's a reason why some teams can beat them on the fast break.

Lastly, FAU should hold the edge at the free-throw line, especially with this game being in Boca Raton.

Overall, SMU should have the defensive wherewithal to lock down FAU on the road.

SMU is better on the offensive glass and can score in transition.

Look for SMU to be efficient enough on offense to keep this game within striking distance.

Take the Mustangs to +4.

Pick: SMU +5.5 (Play to +4)