NCAAB Odds, Pick for Tennessee vs Mississippi State

Rocky Top is back on the road for the first time since November on Wednesday. Rick Barnes’ Volunteers have played six home games, plus a neutral site game in San Antonio, over the past seven contests.

The last time the Vols hit the road, UNC punched them in the mouth in the first half, racking up a staggering 61 points over the first 20 minutes en route to a 100-92 shootout victory. Tennessee must right the ship in its first SEC road test.

Mississippi State eagerly awaits the challenge in Starkville. The Bulldogs have had a few days to stew on a close SEC-opening loss at South Carolina. They now get a huge opportunity for a resume-boosting win, along with avoiding an 0-2 start to league play.

Both teams will do battle in healthier form. MSU’s Tolu Smith will be playing in his third game of the season after recovering from a foot injury, while Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler (torn ACL in February) and Jonas Aidoo (calf injury) are back to a full workload again. Both Zeigler and Aidoo dominated Mississippi on Saturday.

Once again, the Vols find themselves in a familiar position under Rick Barnes. For the fourth straight year, Tennessee ranks in KenPom’s top five in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Zeigler, Aidoo and Josiah-Jordan James are consistent characters in that narrative, all of whom are elite defenders at their positions. Zeigler rediscovering his elite quickness on the ball has established a tone, and James and Jahmai Mashack are multi-positional, disruptive terrors on the wing.

On the road, though, foes have had success. UNC posted a scorching 131.6 offensive rating, per Sports Reference, and Wisconsin hit 98.6 in Madison – the highest and fourth-highest marks allowed by Tennessee this year.

Perhaps these are the same old Volunteers – amazing defense, come up short in the postseason – but Dalton Knecht is trying to change that. His production has fallen off lately, but the 37-point explosion at UNC showcased the heights he can reach offensively.

Tennessee will need his scoring prowess — especially from the perimeter — against a stingy Mississippi State squad.

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In some ways, Mississippi State is quite similar to Tennessee. The Bulldogs are also carried by a fantastic defense, one that ranks 10th in AdjDE. Last year’s Bulldogs were ninthin that measurement, so it's more of the same.

Rangy wings D.J. Jeffries and Cameron Matthews are everywhere, getting deflections and switching onto any opponent, no matter the size. Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis are both demons on the ball. And the Bulldogs possess plenty of size in the paint via the resurgent Smith, Jimmy Bell Jr. and KeShawn Murphy.

The consistency on defense is not surprising under Chris Jans. Where the Bulldogs needed to improve was — like the Vols — on the offensive end.

Freshman sensation Josh Hubbard has provided some of the necessary spark. An incendiary high school scorer, Hubbard has almost single-handedly lifted the Bulldogs’ 3-point percentage from the depths of despair (26.6% in 2022-23, dead last in the country).

Smith’s return is the other major upside piece. MSU was already a tournament-caliber team without him, but Smith is a devastating force on the block who can draw copious defensive attention. Bell has been a solid stopgap, but Smith raises the Bulldogs’ ceiling significantly.

Last year, Tennessee easily swept both meetings. The Vols thrashed Mississippi State by 34 in Knoxville and won by 11 in Starkville, covering in both instances. Both games went over the total, as well.

In a way, that makes sense: Tennessee was a superior version of Mississippi State’s “defense and physicality” identity.

Of course, it also helped that Tennessee shot 22-of-45 from deep over the two clashes. That’s an outlier for a team that shot 32.9% on the year, well below the national average of 34%.

Both teams’ influx of more offensive weaponry makes this season a slightly different handicap. Mississippi State has some alternative to bludgeoning the rim against an athletic, strong foe (although this remains a shaky shooting team, at best).

The Bulldogs also have more depth to contend with Tennessee’s assembly line of defenders.

Finally, Knecht seemingly hasn't shaken his ankle injury suffered against UNC. His production has taken a noticeable dip since.

If Knecht is struggling and not providing the jolt the Tennessee offense needs, can the Vols win an extremely difficult road game in a tough environment against terrific coach? I’m betting no.

Pick: Mississippi State +2 (Play to PK)

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