Villanova vs UConn Odds & Prediction: Defenses to Step Up?

UConn dropped a road game at Creighton on Tuesday right after everyone was touting the Huskies as the clear No. 1 team in the country.

The Huskies still very well could be, but they showed some vulnerabilities the other night in terms of 3-point shooting.

Creighton did play well, but now UConn will have to knock off a desperate Villanova team that needs to notch some key wins down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament.

As tempting as it is to take UConn in a bounce-back spot, the under should be in play because of how dreadfully slowly these two teams can play.

The Wildcats rank in the bottom 30 in adjusted tempo, using up at least 18 seconds per possession. They have a methodical approach, which can work in a game against a team like UConn.

Villanova’s offense has had its issues this year. The Wildcats have really only manufactured buckets from beyond the arc, where they're shooting over 33%. They shoot from deep quite frequently, as well.

The Huskies have occasionally had issues guarding the deep ball, yielding an opponent 3-point rate of 32.5%. However, UConn also ranks in the top 50 in 3-point attempt rate defensively, meaning the Huskies can limit the number of 3s the Wildcats take. Doing that would eliminate a significant portion of Villanova’s offense.

Villanova is the best free-throw shooting team in the country. The Wildcats don't necessarily get to the line often, but UConn will foul opponents, even at home. If UConn sends Nova to the line a few times, it could potentially jeopardize an under.

UConn is a strong offensive-rebounding team, ranking in the top 10 nationally in that area. However, the Wildcats can cut into the Huskies' offensive rebounding potential because they rank in the top 30 on the defensive glass. Simply put, this should lead to fewer offensive rebounds for UConn in the aggregate.

On the other side, Villanova can't rebound well offensively, so don't expect many putback opportunities.

Like Nova, UConn also likes to hoist triples. Villanova yields plenty of 3-point chances to the opposition, but opponents are shooting only 32.4% against the Wildcats.

Villanova ranks in the top 60 in Open-3 Rate on defense, per ShotQuality. UConn, meanwhile, ranks in the top 60 offensively, but the Cats should have the defensive antidote for the most part.

The Huskies may have more offensive success on the interior, as they rank in the top 40 in points per possession at the rim. Villanova has some issues with guarding the rim, especially on cuts. That could be another cause for concern for the under, especially if UConn decides to attack the interior more than it usually does.

When it comes to keeping possession of the ball, UConn ranks in the top 70 in offensive turnover rate. On the other end of the floor, the Huskies don't turn opponents over often.

Villanova can maintain control of the ball, but the Wildcats don't turn opponents over much either. Essentially, this game should be played in the half-court for nearly all 40 minutes.

Lastly, UConn ranks 335th in adjusted tempo and plays pretty slowly on both offense and defense.

Given how both teams have enough artillery defensively to stop their opponents, this game should go under the total.

Neither team takes the ball inside all that much, which would be the only concern. Neither side gets to the line much either, so we won't have to worry about too many points being scored while the clock is stopped.

With putback opportunities also playing a minor role, I'll take the under 133.5 and play it to 132.

Pick: Under 133.5 (Play to 132)

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