Virginia vs. Texas Tech Over/Under: Title Game Will Feature Lowest Total Since at Least 2005


Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Davide Moretti (25) and guard Brandone Francis (1).

Apr 09, 2019, 09:00 PM EDT
  • The over/under for Monday's 2019 national championship game between Virginia and Texas Tech opened at 120.
  • As long as it doesn't eclipse 123.5, this would mark the lowest total in a Final Four or national title game since at least 2005.

Welcome to the 2019 National Championship between Virginia and Texas Tech, the lowest over/under in a Final Four or National Championship game since at least 2005, with an opening total of 119.

Virginia and Texas Tech enter the title game as two of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing the fewest and third-fewest points per game this season.

If you are looking for an angle to bet the National Championship with such a low total: Since 2005, in NCAA Tournament games with an over/under of 120 or less, the over is 17-11-1.

Prior to Virginia and Texas Tech in the 2019 National Championship, the lowest over/under in the Bet Labs database in the Final Four or National Championship occurred back in 2006, when LSU and UCLA closed with a total of 123.5. The UCLA-LSU Final Four ended with the Bruins advancing to the title game in a  59-45 win. The game went under the total with just 104 combined points.

In all Final Four and National Championship games since 2005, the under is 7-2 when the over/under is set at 130 points or fewer. For Virginia, that is a pace and trend it is used to playing with — in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, the under is 4-1 in Virginia games and with Texas Tech on deck, get ready for a slow down, slug fest for a National Championship.

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