Women’s NCAA Tournament Predictions: How to Bet Sunday’s LSU vs. Miami Showdown (March 26)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami’s Hanna Cavinder.
LSU vs. Miami Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Miami Hurricanes are one win away from being only the second No. 9 seed in Women’s NCAA Tournament history to make the Final Four.
Let’s find a pick for the game.
Action has partnered with Her Hoop Stats for coverage of the 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament — check Action for Dano Mataya‘s best gameday bets through the national championship!
The Tigers enter the Elite Eight 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the Big Dance with a total winning margin of +50.
If not for some trouble at the free-throw line for Utah, LSU would be done dancing.
In the Sweet 16, the Tigers held an eight-point lead with 3:42 left in the contest. Then, Utah’s Gianna Kneepkens went on a 9-0 run by herself, which was followed by some free throws for both teams. Utah found itself ahead with less than one minute left.
In the end, two tragic missed free throws from Utah’s Jenna Johnson, a 73% free-throw shooter, with 4.7 seconds left sealed the deal for Kim Mulkey’s Tigers to advance.
The Canes enter the Elite Eight 3-0 ATS with three outright wins in each game as underdogs.
First, they came back from a 17-point deficit against Oklahoma State to win by one. Then, they never trailed against the No. 1-seed Indiana Hoosiers to win by two. Finally, after leading by as many as 21 against Villanova in the Sweet 16, Miami trailed by one point with 49 seconds left before ending the game on a 6-0 run to win by five.
All of that means the Canes have a total winning margin of +8 through three games, which is the lowest in the tournament.
LSU vs. Miami Betting Pick
It’s extremely difficult to pick against a side in this matchup.
In games where LSU is between a 6- and 9.5-point favorite this season, the Tigers are 4-0 ATS and have won by an average of 23.3 points in those respective contests. Miami is the tournament Cinderella, with everyone on the roster getting hot at the right time.
As far as totals go in the tournament, the Hurricanes have gone over the total in two of their three games. On the other side, all three of LSU’s games have gone to the under.
LSU has been a team that you could successfully profit on from betting the over all season, but it’s playing at a much slower pace and making teams defend it in the half-court in postseason play.
Calvin Wetzel, my colleague at Spread the Floor presented by HerHoopStats, points out exactly how dramatic this pace differential is.
On the season LSU is taking 14.9 seconds per possession (top 60 fastest in the country)
But in 5 postseason games they've been two whole seconds slower (229th fastest based on @CBBAnalytics)
Turning into a halfcourt team. Under city
— Calvin Wetzel (@cwetzel31) March 26, 2023
We have to trust that each team works to keep the other off the offensive glass and that this turns into a grudge match in the trenches. Under it is.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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