2019 College Football Bowl Projections After Week 9: A Weird Year for the SEC

2019 College Football Bowl Projections After Week 9: A Weird Year for the SEC article feature image
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Timothy Flores-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Xavier Jones

  • Our college football bowl projections are taking even more firm shape after Week 9.
  • Below, we project every game and the point spread for those hypothetical matchups using The Action Network power ratings.
  • It's a strange year for the SEC, which may not have as many bowl-eligible teams as usual. The ACC is also a mess with so many four-win teams fighting for those final two victories.

College football bowl season is rapidly approaching, and our projections saw some changes after Week 9.

Oklahoma’s loss dropped the Sooners out of the College Football Playoff picture (though they’re far from eliminated) and opened the door for LSU to get the fourth spot.

That caused lots of changes to the rest of our projections, including the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl.

These rankings are based on a combination of what has happened and what we think will happen the rest of the way.

Here’s how things stand after Week 9, with projected point spreads for these projected matchups using The Action Network power ratings.

2019 College Football Bowl Projections

CFP & New Year’s Six Bowls

LSU moves into the top 4 with Oklahoma’s loss. That causes a ripple effect in the rest of the New Year’s Six games, bumping Georgia or Florida into LSU’s vacant spot in the Sugar Bowl.

Baylor has a real shot at an at-large bid since the Bears could be favored in every remaining game but a home affair vs. Oklahoma. Even with a loss there and a loss in the Big 12 title game, Baylor can get a New Year’s Six bid.

The Pac-12 race is heating up as well, with Oregon the favorite for a Rose Bowl bid right now since USC still holds the edge over Utah in the Pac-12 South; the Ducks have the clearest path to a conference title. Because the Trojans won that head-to-head against the Utes, they’ll go to the conference championship game if they win out.

The Group of 5 spot is still very much up for grabs, but it is SMU’s to lose right now. The 8-0 Mustangs have a tough schedule to finish the year with at Memphis, at Navy and vs. Tulane looming, so don’t be surprised to see Boise State, Appalachian State or another AAC team swoop in.

Every Other Bowl Game

It’s a weird year for the SEC, isn’t it?

Yes, you’ve got the elite teams at the top and some darn good teams in the second tier. All in all, there are six SEC bowl game locks, plus Missouri, which is appealing a bowl ban.

But after that, it’s possible that the SEC doesn’t fill all its bowl slots with six-win teams. Here’s who’s competing to get to six wins:

  • Mississippi State, 3-5
  • South Carolina, 3-5
  • Tennessee, 3-5
  • Ole Miss, 3-5
  • Kentucky, 4-4

I think Kentucky can get there with the easiest remaining schedule and just two wins needed — Tennessee, Vanderbilt, UT-Martin, Louisville.

But the other three all need to go 3-1 down the stretch, and I’m not sure it happens for anyone … maybe Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are in a tailspin but close the season with Arkansas, Alabama, Abilene Christian and Ole Miss.

And maybe Tennessee, which needs to beat UAB (-14.5) then two of Missouri (+9), Kentucky (+2) and Vanderbilt (-12).

You can use our betting-style power ratings to project point spreads between any two teams, like I just did for Tennessee.

2019 Bowl Game Tie-Ins

Peach Bowl — CFP Semifinal
Fiesta Bowl — CFP Semifinal

Sugar Bowl — SEC vs. Big 12
Rose Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Orange Bowl — ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/ND
Cotton Bowl — at-large vs. at-large

Mobile Bowl — MAC vs. Sun Belt
Armed Forces Bowl — Big Ten vs. Mountain West
Potato Bowl — MAC vs. Mountain West
Gator Bowl — Big Ten vs. SEC
Birmingham Bowl — American vs. SEC
Citrus Bowl — ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Outback Bowl — Big Ten vs. SEC
Alamo Bowl — Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Arizona Bowl — Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Liberty Bowl — Big 12 vs. SEC
Sun Bowl — ACC vs. Pac-12
Belk Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
Redbox Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Music City Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
First Responder Bowl — Big 12 vs. C-USA
Camping World Bowl — ACC vs. Big 12
Cheez-It Bowl — Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Holiday Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Texas Bowl — Big 12 vs. SEC
Pinstripe Bowl — ACC vs. Big Ten
Military Bowl — ACC vs. American
Quick Lane Bowl — ACC vs. Big Ten
Independence Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
Hawaii Bowl — BYU vs. American
Gasparilla Bowl — American/ACC vs. C-USA
New Orleans Bowl — C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas Bowl — Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Camellia Bowl — MAC vs. Sun Belt
Boca Raton Bowl — American/C-USA/MAC
Cure Bowl — American vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico Bowl — C-USA vs. Mountain West
Frisco Bowl — American vs. C-USA/MAC/Mountain West
Bahamas Bowl — C-USA vs. MAC