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The Air Force Falcons take on the Army Black Knights in West Point, New York, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Army is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -162. Air Force, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +136 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. Army prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Air Force vs Army Prediction
- Air Force vs. Army Pick: Air Force +3.5 or Better
My Army vs. Air Force best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Army Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | +136 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | -162 |
- Air Force vs Army point spread: Army -3.5 (-102), Air Force +3.5 (-120)
- Air Force vs Army over/under: 44.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Air Force vs Army moneyline: Air Force +136, Army -162
Air Force vs Army College Football Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Trophy Time?
Air Force has taken possession of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy exactly one time over the last 10 years, and I'm guessing many within the walls of the Falcon football offices have never even laid eyes on the trophy.
The fact that Air Force can clinch the CIC Trophy this weekend provides added motivation for a bunch that doesn’t need much to draw up reasons to want to play Army.
The Falcons have overcome a decent amount of adversity this season, but along with bowl eligibility and a conference championship possibility, winning this game will allow the Flyboys to accomplish one of their most cherished goals of the season.
The ground game has been humming along despite starting quarterback Liam Szarka being ruled out for the season after suffering a leg injury against Navy.
Backup quarterback Evan Medders has also missed time with injury, but Kemper Hodges, who is a converted fullback, has flourished under center and is running the ball really well.
Hodges has run for 401 yards and six touchdowns with a bruising style that wears down defenses due to his physical size. At six feet tall and weighing 245 pounds this dude is a lot to handle.
Owen Allen has carried the rock effectively out of the fullback position, and Rocco Conti provides a bit of pop along the outside.
The world's finest Air Force is equipped with the finest rushing attack in the college leagues, as the Falcons are averaging 341 yards per game on the ground.
Twice this season, the Flyboys have won a game without completing a pass, but there are three receivers who have at least five catches this season.
The defense has been strong against the run a good majority of the season, with only Wyoming and Nevada exceeding 150 rushing yards against this unit.
Air Force has improved its defensive scheme up front and is creating a little bit more pressure, but due to the undersized nature of the defensive line, there's never going to be a tremendous amount of activity registered in the backfield of opponents.
Competent quarterbacks can throw on Air Force, but Army will line up and run the ball. So, the key for Air Force will be defending the power run game, which features a heavy dose of QB power.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview: Hellums Leads the Way
Army has been involved in high-pressure games all season long, with the Knights sitting at 3-2 in one-possession games.
The team is vastly improved from last season, and there has been more consistent play on offense with the emergence of reliable playmakers.
Godspower Nwawuihe has run for 455 yards and four touchdowns this season. Samari Howard and Zach Mundell are also reliable options that provide some explosiveness. Jake Rendina can be used out of the traditional flexbone “B” back position.
But the straw that stirs the drink is the quarterback.
Cale Hellums has run for 874 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns this season, and he has more carries than any other three players for the Army offense.
Hellums doesn't provide a ton of explosiveness on the ground, and despite Army leading the country in 20-plus yard rushes, only one of every 15 rushes is deemed explosive.
The Knights offense is most effective when it gains five yards on first down and the playbook becomes versatile on second and third down.
When this offense is rolling, it's hard to stop. But when the QB run game doesn’t work, it looks a lot like last week against Memphis.
The defense hasn't been a strong point, and the Knights have been shredded by FBS competition nearly weekly. Army is giving up 429 yards and seven yards per play against FBS teams, and the Knights have allowed 84 points over the last two weeks.
The front has registered just eight sacks and 23 tackles for loss. Stopping the run has not gone well, but the Knights are familiar with the Air Force scheme. These games generally tend to be slower-paced, low-scoring and full of run action.
Air Force vs Army Pick, Betting Analysis
This game opened with Army listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with a total that opened at 51.5 and was sharply bet down to where it currently sits at 44.5.
Air Force has also taken some money, and Army sits as a small 3.5-point favorite as of writing. I like Air Force here.
The Falcons haven't felt the effects of the quarterback carousel, and Hodges is running the ball really well right now. I anticipate the power run game giving Army’s defensive front fits.
The Knights have been terrible at stopping the run all season, ranking 132nd nationally in PPA Per Rush allowed and 100th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Air Force will move the ball on early downs, as it has all season. The Flyboys find themselves in second-and-medium or better more frequently than almost anybody in the country, and staying on schedule will be critical in this matchup.
I trust the Air Force offense lining up against a weaker Army defense. While drives will be methodical, Air Force should cross midfield and have a decent chance to score points on several drives.
Army has been very fortunate in several of its wins this season, and the lack of creativity on offense could be an issue here. The quarterback run has been featured on half of the Knights' offensive snaps, and Air Force should be able to stop what's coming.
This game will be close, but you could make the argument that Air Force is the better team here with the more complete defense. Getting more than a field goal here makes this a spot where I want to back the Flyboys.
Pick: Air Force +3.5 or Better
Air Force vs Army Betting Trends
