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The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Auburn is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -385. Arkansas, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +310 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Auburn prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Arkansas vs Auburn Prediction
- Arkansas vs. Auburn Pick: Arkansas +10.5
My Auburn vs. Arkansas best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas vs Auburn Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -114 | 53.5 -118o / -104u | +310 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -106 | 53.5 -118o / -104u | -385 |
- Arkansas vs Auburn point spread: Auburn -10.5 (-106), Arkansas +10.5 (-114)
- Arkansas vs Auburn over/under: 53.5 (-118o / -104u)
- Arkansas vs Auburn moneyline: Arkansas +310, Auburn -385
Arkansas vs Auburn College Football Preview
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: Program in Flux
Let's just get the easy part out of the way. Arkansas is a bad football team.
I'm actually surprised that the Hogs are entering Week 10 with three wins under their belt, because after their Week 1 win, it was hard to imagine that they'd win another game.
But Arkansas has prevailed, with wins over Tulsa and Vanderbilt — a huge boost to Hog Nation.
Quarterback KJ Jackson was put into an impossible situation when assuming the starting job in Fayetteville, but he has managed to hold his own.
You can see the vision. He has good wheels and a quality arm, but the offensive line is forcing him to make much quicker decisions than necessary, allowing Havoc on 17.6% of snaps.
That's also why he's completing only 60% of his passes, though his decision-making has improved. In the first five games of the season, he threw four interceptions, but then only threw one pick in the past three games. Progress.
Wide receiver Chris Marshall has been the only real positive in this receiver room, accounting for 25% of receptions and drawing 67 targets, the seventh-most in the SEC. And while Marshall missed last week with an upper-body injury, he's listed as probable on the injury report.
Given how poor the offensive line has been, it's reflected on the run game as well. The run game has been completely brutal. Sutton Smith, Cam Settles and Braylen Russell have split the majority of the carries and all average less than four yards per carry.
Individually, the Razorbacks have a handful of quality defenders, but as a unit, they're rough to watch. Defensive backs like Khmori House, Joker Johnson and Shelton Lewis all have pretty active hands, but they still get beaten down.
The defensive line generates little to no pressure, ranking 117th in Havoc, and on the ground, has allowed 4.8 yards per carry, ranking 107th in the FBS.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: One Man Band
It was never going to be a quick fix when Alex Golesh took over for Auburn. But Golesh's teams will always stay in the fight.
This is a talented program — a program that shocked the world by beating Georgia three weeks ago. However, since then, the Tigers fell to both LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks.
Quarterback Byrum Brown is what he is. When he's on, he's one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in football. The problem is, his lows occur more frequently than his highs.
His average time to throw is 3.19 seconds, which is the highest in the SEC and explains why he's the most sacked quarterback in college football.
He's a large part of this offense because of his ability to run the ball, and he has accounted for 47% of the team's total carries with seven rushing touchdowns.
That's the problem with Auburn. It's so centralized on one guy, but I think once Brown exhausts his eligibility, there will be hope to open up the offense.
Brown has a decent arm, but you can't fully trust it, as Auburn ranks 109th in Passing Success Rate.
The Tigers' defense is most certainly a strength, but like the offense, there's work to do. They rank 44th in rushing yards allowed per attempt but 110th in passing yards allowed per game.
The stars of this defense are Elijah Melendez, who leads the team in both tackles and PBUs and Andre Jordan Jr., who's listed as questionable on the injury report.
Arkansas vs Auburn Pick, Betting Analysis
Both of these programs are in transition, but I think Auburn has the upper hand by a long shot.
I wonder how Arkansas can handle Brown's explosiveness. Brown isn't a mountain mover by any means with his inconsistency, but he does have the ability to cause headaches for defenses.
Arkansas won't be able to run the ball at all against Auburn. Given how poorly the Hogs run, it plays perfectly into Auburn's stout ground control.
At -10.5, this could be a risky play, since Auburn hasn't won a game against a power conference program by more than six points. Arkansas will also likely have Marshall back, which will be a huge boost to this offense.
It may be closer than you think. Auburn will end up winning this, but I don't think this is a blowout.
Pick: Arkansas +10.5
