The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
LSU is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -215. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +176 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. LSU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google and download the Action Network app today.
Alabama vs LSU Prediction
- Alabama vs. LSU Pick: LSU -5 or Better · Sam Leavitt Anytime TD (-140)
My LSU vs. Alabama best bet is on the Bayou Bengals to cover the spread at least in part thanks to a Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs LSU Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +176 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -215 |
- Alabama vs LSU point spread: LSU -5.5 (-110), Alabama +5.5 (-110)
- Alabama vs LSU over/under: 52.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Alabama vs LSU moneyline: Alabama +176, LSU -215
Alabama vs LSU College Football Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Crimson Zone Struggles
Alabama will be fresh off a much-needed bye week, struggling through three straight games. The Crimson Tide battled through a tough home victory against Texas A&M in Week 8, breaking a two-game losing streak to Georgia and Tennessee.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer has played a top-10 strength of schedule against a number of Havoc-minded defenses.
Although the Tide have been explosive with quarterback Keelon Russell, defenses have feasted on a Havoc allowed ranking of 113th. The sophomore quarterback has faced pressure on 98-of-274 dropbacks this season.
The Alabama defense has been more successful against the run. Top-10 rankings in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards indicate few run concepts have worked against coordinator Kane Wommack's unit.
The efficiency against teams that run zone read is a modest 52%, but Alabama creates a negative EPA per play against opposing rush offenses.
The pass defense has been more troublesome, as Alabama ranks outside the top 100 in 40-yard passes allowed.
Even more worrisome is the red-zone efficiency, ranking 134th thanks to a defense that has allowed 26-of-27 opponent trips to end in a score.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Leavitt Leads Bayou Bengals
LSU conquered any road demons in Week 8 before heading into a bye week. The Tigers never struggled in Jordan-Hare Stadium, beating Auburn on the road, 38-17.
LSU had lost both of its previous road games against Kentucky and Ole Miss, but the offense nearly eclipsed more than three yards per play against Auburn.
The offense continues to improve under head coach Lane Kiffin, who was tasked with building a team that was delivered straight from the transfer portal.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt has gone without an interception in two straight games. Familiarity is sinking in with targets on the field.
LSU collected nine drops from targets through the first three games but has posted only seven drops in the previous five games.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker calls one of the most ferocious stop units in the nation, ranking top five in multiple categories, including Passing Success Rate, coverage, Defensive Quality Drives and Havoc.
Edges Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen have posted 29 pressures and have combined for 18 sacks.
Linebackers TJ Dottery and Davhon Keys lead the team with 73 tackles, missing only eight on the season. The cornerback play has been elite with PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett combining to create nine pass breakups this season.
Six opponents on the schedule have scored 17 points or less, with Texas A&M and Mississippi State failing to score a touchdown.
Alabama vs LSU Pick, Betting Analysis
Alabama has struggled to protect Russell all season, as nearly every opponent has generated double-digit pressures. An alarming number of 20 came against the Tennessee defense, a game where Russell was sacked at least four times.
Tide tackles Jayvin James and Jackson Lloyd have allowed 16 pressures this season, so Umanmielen and Ross will likely be successful in harassing Russell.
The Crimson Tide have been led by Russell's pass explosives this season, a tall task against an LSU defense that ranks second in Pass EPA allowed.
The Alabama defense should be a wash in stopping the LSU ground attack led by Dilin Jones, but red-zone opportunities should fall to Leavitt's legs.
The Arizona State transfer has had no trouble reaching the end zone, rushing for eight touchdowns this season.
Leavitt has nearly three times as many rush attempts behind man-assignment blocking, an area where the Alabama defense allows an explosive play on 15% of attempts.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make LSU a favorite of -6, but with defensive advantages in creating Havoc, there's a clear signal on the Tigers.
More worrisome is the Crimson Tide defense in the red zone, allowing 26-of-27 opponent attempts to end in a score.
Look for Leavitt to have a successful day through the air and on the ground, while Baker's defense does enough to limit Russell's explosiveness.
Pick: LSU -5 or Better · Sam Leavitt Anytime TD (-140)
Alabama vs LSU Betting Trends
