Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Alabama-LSU

Nov 03, 2018 10:19 AM EDT
  • Trying to bet Alabama-LSU this weekend? We couldn't rely on one opinion to provide a winner, so we asked our whole staff.
  • Our staffers give out their favorite picks, from LSU +14 to what kind of score the first touchdown will be.

For a game as big as LSU-Alabama, we can’t only rely on one person to give their opinion. We need to call in the cavalry.

Several of our staff members give out their favorite bet for LSU-Alabama below, including plays on the total, side, props and first half.

Betting Picks for Alabama-LSU

John Ewing: Under 53.5

Alabama and LSU have been two of the most profitable over teams in college football with the over, combining to go 11-5 in their games.

More than 60% of bets are on the over Saturday. But here are a few trends to consider before placing that over bet:

  • Since 2005, when both teams have a winning over record, the under has gone 812-677-18 (54.5%). Oddsmakers inflate the over/under for teams that consistently go over.
  • The Alabama and LSU defenses have allowed fewer than 20 points per game. In games when both teams allow 20 points or fewer, and Bama and LSU have participated, the under is 68-51 (57%).
  • The under is 9-5 in Bama-LSU games since 2005.

Even though a majority of bets and dollars are on the over, the line has moved from 54.5 to 53.5.

Evan Abrams: Will The First Score of the Game Be a Field Goal? Yes (+220)

We all know about Alabama’s offensive prowess this season (54.1 PPG) and the fact that each of their eight games have opened with a touchdown within the first two possessions, with a touchdown the result of the first drive in seven games (six coming from Alabama).

According to S&P+, the best defense Alabama has faced so far this season was Texas A&M (30th) back in September at home (Alabama scored 45 points), with the next closest being Missouri (51st) about a month ago (Alabama scored 39).

The best defense the Tide have faced away from Tuscaloosa this season was Arkansas, who they scored a 76-yard touchdown against on the first play from scrimmage. I think LSU’s defense, which is ranked 8th in S&P+, will give Alabama some new looks and a different test away from home in “Death Valley” at night.

That’s especially given the fact that LSU is 12th in Defensive Explosiveness and 7th in Defensive Pass Explosiveness this season, which hopefully can come into effect early at home.

I think early in the game, both teams will be satisfied getting points on the board. From the Alabama point-of-view, silencing the crowd and getting up early will be vital and for LSU, any type of momentum at all to start the game is a plus, because against the Alabama juggernaut, it’s going to be about survival.

Ken Barkley: LSU +14

I’m excited just typing these sentences, which means this must be a significant game in the complexion of the season. The handicap SHOULD be sort of simple, but it actually is unfortunately complex. I will explain.

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ed Orgeron and Nick Saban

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
49.5
+27
MSU
NEB
49
+2
49
+2
IOWA
ILL
59
+15.5
58.5
+16
LIB
AUB
59.5
-28.5
59.5
-28.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-27.5
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-20.5
CIT
BAMA
--
--
--
--
MASS
UGA
62
-44
63
-44
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58
+16.5
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+2
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-39.5
NCST
LOU
62.5
+14.5
63.5
+15
MTSU
UK
45
-13
45
-13.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
71
+4.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
51
-44
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
59
-7.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
68.5
-36
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-27.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
57.5
-33
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
60.5
-10
ISU
TEX
51
-3
50.5
-3
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
62.5
-9
SDSU
FRES
45
-16
44
-15