Appalachian State vs. Miami Betting Odds, Prediction, Pick: Can Canes Cover Week 2 Spread? (Sept. 11)

Appalachian State vs. Miami Betting Odds, Prediction, Pick: Can Canes Cover Week 2 Spread? (Sept. 11) article feature image
Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: D’Eriq King.

  • The Miami Hurricanes and Appalachian State Mountaineers meet in Week 2 college football action on Saturday night.
  • Miami enters as a favorite, but the spread has moved in favor of Appalachian State.
  • Alex Hinton breaks the game down below and shares a betting pick based on his analysis.

Appalachian State vs. Miami Odds

Saturday, Sept. 11
7 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Appalachian State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-115
54
-120o / +100u
+235
Miami Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-105
55
-120o / +100u
-300
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Appalachian State Mountaineers head to Hard Rock Stadium to battle the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday. The Mountaineers opened their 2021 season with a comfortable 33-19 win over East Carolina in Charlotte.

Miami had the misfortune of opening the season with Alabama in Atlanta, and the Tide rolled again 44-13.

The Hurricanes will look to bounce back at home in Week 2. This will be the second all-time meeting in the series as Miami won the first matchup, 45-10, on the road back in 2016.


Appalachian State Mountaineers

App State was one of the most dominant programs at the FCS level before moving up to the FBS in 2014.  Since then, App State has become one of the most successful group of five programs. The Mountaineers won seven games in  2014, and every year since they have won at least nine.

App State’s success has not slowed down through coaching changes, from Scott Satterfield, to Eli Drinkwitz, and now Shawn Clark. Last year, Clark won nine games in his first year at the helm. He will have the Mountaineers in contention for the Sun Belt Conference championship again in 2021.


Mountaineers Offense

Well-traveled transfer quarterback Chase Brice has experience against the Hurricanes from his time in the ACC.

Last year with Duke, Brice did not have much success against Miami. He threw for 94 yards on a lackluster 3.8 YPA and had a QBR of 28.4. He lost a fumble, and the Hurricanes recorded four sacks en route to a 48-0 win. Brice’s debut with Appalachian State went much better. He went 20 of 27 for 259 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Appalachian State has been a run-heavy team the last few years, and it looks like that trend will continue if the season opener was any indication. Nate Noel (126 yards on 15 carries) and Camerun Peoples (100 yards on 14 carries) both reached 100 yards at over seven yards a clip.  App State had an offensive success rate of 55.6% (57.1% passing success rate and 54.3 rushing success rate), which is well above the national average.

The Mountaineers were very successful in creating explosive plays. The Mountainers had seven passing plays over 15 yards (three over 20 yards) and eight runs over 12 yards (two over 20). Brice’s arm will open up the Mountaineers offense much more than we have seen the last few years with Zac Thomas under center. The Mountaineers were able to convert four of those explosive plays into touchdowns.


Mountaineers Defense

The Mountaineers returned 10 defensive starters from a year ago and ranked 16th nationally with a defensive TARP grade of 83. Against East Carolina, junior outside linebacker Brendan Harrington led the way with two of the Mountaineers four sacks. The Mountaineers held East Carolina to a below-average 43.1% offensive success rate.

One area for concern for the Mountaineers is they surrendered eight explosive plays to East Carolina. These only turned into 19 points, but against Miami, the damage could be a lot worse.


Miami Hurricanes

Miami got a firsthand look at how they match up with the nation’s best, and resoundingly the answer was not well. Miami could not handle Alabama’s physicality and was overwhelmed by their talent.

Nonetheless, two good things emerged for the Hurricanes from the Alabama game: quarterback D’Eriq King emerged from the game healthy, and they will not see another team on Alabama’s level for the rest of the year.


Hurricanes Offense

If Miami is going to make any noise in the ACC this year, it needs dynamic quarterback D’Eriq King healthy and performing at a high level.

He had limped to the sideline briefly but finished the game against Alabama. For a quarterback eight months removed from tearing his ACL and facing the best team in the country, King played pretty well. He completed 23 of 31 passes ,and Miami’s success rate on passing plays was 40%, almost exactly the national average of 40.6%.

One problem last week for the Hurricanes was the amount of havoc allowed. Alabama picked off two passes, had four sacks, and recorded seven tackles for loss.

Miami had very few changes on its Week 2 depth chart. The only change was Justice Oluwaseun replacing DJ Scaife at right tackle – Scaife was one of the weak points on Miami offensive line against Alabama. Moving forward, Miami’s offensive line should be a strength.

Last season’s leading receiver Mike Harley left last week’s game with an upper extremity injury, but he is expected to play this week.


Hurricanes Defense

Miami’s run defense held up pretty well against Alabama. The Crimson Tide averaged 4.22 yards per running play and only had one run of 20 yards or more.

However, Miami’s passing defense was a disaster against the Crimson Tide. Alabama had a 55% success rate on passing plays, averaged 8.63 yards per pass, and hit two passing plays over 20 yards, including the 94-yard touchdown to Jameson Williams.

Miami did not get much pressure on Bryce Young as the defense only had one sack, but it did have 10 tackles for loss. Miami has excelled at creating havoc in recent years, and Miami should have more success creating havoc against App State.

The Canes will welcome back safety Bubba Bolden, who was ejected in the first quarter for targeting against Alabama. Freshmen safeties James Williams and Kamren Kinchens held up well considering the circumstances.

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Appalachian State vs. Miami Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Miami match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs. Miami Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success 23 86
Passing Success 32 40
Havoc 34 50
Line Yards 15 21
Sack Rate 62 39
Finishing Drives 38 75

Miami Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success 86 43
Passing Success 56 3
Havoc 93 90
Line Yards 99 64
Sack Rate 88 45
Finishing Drives 17 37

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 9 41
Coverage 19 80
Rush Rate 64.5% (10) 52.6% (80)
Seconds per Play 96 11

Data via College Football Data (CFBD) and FootballOutsiders; SP+ projection per ESPN.


Appalachian State vs. Miami Betting Pick

The issue for Miami under Manny Diaz has been playing teams with equal or more talent. Last season, Miami was steamrolled by Clemson and North Carolina, but it also handled its business against the teams it was supposed to beat. Miami’s margin of victory in its eight games was 17.6 PPG.

According to the Action Network’s College Football Power Ratings from Collin Wilson, Alabama sits at No. 1, Miami is No. 18, and Appalachian State is No. 35. Miami was overmatched against Alabama, but it will have a similar relative edge over Appalachian State.

While Appalachian State is known for pulling off one of the greatest upsets in college football by beating Michigan in 2007, it has not had been able to recreate that magic in recent years.

Since joining the FBS in 2014, Appalachian State is 0-7 against ranked opponents, and those four losses were all by double digits, including against Miami in 2016

The line opened up at -7.5 and is still only sitting at -8.5 on some books. That is a market overreaction to Miami being blown out by Alabama. The Canes will have a size and talent advantage in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Offensively, that will lead to a few explosive plays in the running game while Miami’s defense should be able to create more havoc plays this week; it did pressure BryceYoung plenty last week. When Miami gets into Appalachian State territory, the Canes offense will have an edge when it comes to finishing drives.

All things considered, I like Miami to win comfortably. Getting the Hurricanes as a single-digit favorite is a bargain, and I would take the spread up to -13.

Pick:  Miami -8.5

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