The Boise State Broncos take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, Nevada. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Boise State is favored by 21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Boise State vs. Nevada prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 24.
Boise State vs Nevada Prediction
- Boise State vs. Nevada Pick: Under 51 (-110, bet365)
My Nevada vs. Boise State best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Nevada Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +950 |
- Boise State vs Nevada point spread: Boise State -21.5 (-110), Nevada +21.5 (-110)
- Boise State vs Nevada over/under: 51 (-110o / -110u)
- Boise State vs Nevada moneyline: Boise State -1700, Nevada +950
Boise State vs Nevada Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Controlling Possession Key for the Broncos
Boise State enters this matchup in control of its Mountain West destiny, and the numbers confirm why the Broncos are such a heavy favorite on the road.
Their offense ranks in the top 35 nationally in EPA per Pass, showcasing quarterback Maddux Madsen's consistent ability to create explosive plays through the air.
However, Madsen has seven interceptions and is completing only 57% of his passes. Despite his efficiency, he is prone to poor performances at times and faces a challenging matchup against the Nevada secondary.
On the ground, Boise adds another dimension through running back Dylan Riley, who is doing his best to replicate Ashton Jeanty's production. The Broncos produce +0.08 EPA per rush, which has kept defenses honest and helped sustain drives.
The Broncos also excel in field position, beginning possessions at their own 30-yard line on average, which ranks 20th nationally and consistently gives them a short field to work with. Their offense converts nearly 51% of their 3rd and 4th downs, an impressive efficiency rate that allows them to control tempo and wear down opposing defenses.
Yet despite these strong efficiency metrics, Boise State’s offense tends to lean more methodical than explosive. The Broncos' early downs EPA per play sits at +0.05, and their average third-down distance of 7.23 yards suggests they have had trouble generating explosive plays.
That is a massive part of the handicap, as the public perception of the Broncos comes from their last offensive performances against New Mexico and UNLV. Even if Boise State scores consistently, its pace and balance will not lead to as many points as you think.
Against a Nevada defense that ranks poorly against the run but holds steady against the pass, Boise State is well-positioned to dominate possession time, control the clock, and take its time during scoring drives.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Lackluster Offense Main Problem for Wolf Pack
Nevada’s offense has struggled mightily this season, and the advanced numbers emphasize how difficult it may be for the Wolf Pack to generate consistent offense against a Boise defense that remains opportunistic.
The Wolf Pack rank near the bottom of the FBS in passing efficiency at –0.31 EPA per pass, which is bad news heading into the matchup against Boise State.
Their running game hasn’t been much better, posting a -0.07 EPA per rush that often leaves them in long-yardage situations. Nevada’s available yards percentage of just 39.4% is a minor illustration of how rarely they capitalize on drives that cross midfield.
The Wolfpack are at a mismatch against Boise State's defense. The Broncos’ pass defense, allowing -0.09 EPA per pass, ranks 41st nationally and matches up perfectly against a Nevada offense that struggles to complete passes downfield.
While Boise’s rush defense has been more vulnerable, Nevada lacks the personnel to exploit that weakness. The Wolf Pack’s average third-down distance of 7.43 yards and a conversion rate below 40% tells me they often stall before reaching scoring range.
With limited playmaking, long fields, and low early-down efficiency, Nevada’s path to scoring many points seems minuscule. Its offense lacks the rhythm and explosiveness to force a high-possession game.
It's also worth noting that they are banged up on the offensive line and at wide receiver. I have zero confidence that Nevada can score enough to keep up with Boise.
Boise State vs Nevada Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a classic spot where the public overvalues the heavy favorite and assumes it will score plenty.
Boise State’s offensive profile, which is efficient but lacking explosiveness, and Nevada’s inability to sustain drives point toward a game script where possessions are limited and scoring slows in the second half.
The Broncos have every advantage on both sides of the ball, but their controlled pace, combined with Nevada’s lack of offensive ability, should keep this one below the total.
The injury report also supports the underlying narrative. Boise State is mostly healthy, meaning it should be able to dictate the game on both sides of the ball without pressing the pace.
Nevada, meanwhile, could be shorthanded up front and at the skill positions.
Sharp money has already dropped the total from 51.5 to 50.5, but there are still a few 51's out there.
Pick: Under 51 (-110, bet365)
