Chattanooga vs Alabama Odds & Prediction: Can Mocs Cover?
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Milroe #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field on November 11, 2023 in Lexington, Kentucky.
Chattanooga vs Alabama Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Chattanooga vs. Alabama on Saturday, Nov. 18 — our expert prediction and betting pick for this Week 12 college football game.
The Mocs are a strong 7-3 on the season after winning three of their last five in the Southern Conference, but the Crimson Tide are another animal.
Alabama is 9-1 and rolling after a Week 2 loss at home against Texas. The Crimson Tide have rattled off eight straight wins and are looking to make it nine straight this week after clinching the SEC West last week in Lexington.
Can the Tide win big enough to cover a 45-point spread? Find my betting pick and prediction for Chattanooga vs Alabama below.
Rusty Wright has his Mocs at 7-3 on the year after finishing 7-4 a year ago. He has done an impressive job in Chattanooga since arriving in 2019, but he is getting one of the nation’s best this week on the road in Tuscaloosa.
The Mocs offense has been solid this season as they put up nearly 31 points per game. Junior quarterback Chase Artopoeus leads the offense as he has thrown for 2,672 yards with 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions and 146 rushing yards on the ground.
Gino Appleberry leads the Chattanooga run game at 4.3 yards per carry, which is solid.
Ultimately, the Mocs’ offensive success in this one will be determined by Artopoeus’s ability to get the ball out early before the pass rush gets there.
Defensively, Chattanooga has allowed 20.6 points per game and has found a lot of success turning teams over with an impressive +17 turnover margin on the year. If the Mocs can force one or two turnovers to set up some short fields to steal points, that would be extremely helpful in avoiding a rout.
The Mocs' run defense is an area of concern as they allow 138 yards per game on the ground. They will need to load the box to slow down the Alabama run game.
The Tide have found their identity as they are improving week after week during this eight-game winning streak. Alabama looks to win this week before next week's rivalry matchup at Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
The Crimson Tide offense isn't the same as those in years past that have featured a plethora of playmakers at receiver, but Alabama still averages 33.6 points per game and ranks 56th in Success Rate.
The Crimson Tide are pretty balanced in the run and pass game in Success Rate, but the story of this offense is Jalen Milroe’s ability to throw the deep ball and use his legs to keep defenses closer to the line of scrimmage to keep the deep ball open.
Milroe continues to get more and more comfortable each week, but I would expect him to play pretty reserved this week to avoid any unnecessary injury as Alabama gets ready to play at Auburn and eventually Georgia in Atlanta a week later.
Alabama’s defense allows an average of 18.1 points per game, with most of those coming in the first half, as defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has been one of the best at halftime adjustments this season.
Bama’s defense ranks ninth in Success Rate and 48th in Havoc. The Tide should have no problem punishing a weaker Chattanooga team this week and closing this one out early.
Chattanooga vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
Alabama is the far superior team in this one and should have no problem putting up points in a hurry while shutting down Chattanooga’s offense.
However, it's interesting that the total is only 50.5 while the Crimson Tide are favored by 44.5. With this lower total relative to the spread and Alabama unlikely to show any new plays before the looming matchups with Auburn and Georgia, take Chattanooga to snag a turnover and put some points on the board to secure the cover.
Pick: Chattanooga +44.5
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