Week 11 rolls on with a loaded afternoon slate.
Iowa heads to Eugene to battle the Ducks while a sneaky elite UConn passing offense hosts the Blue Devils.
Of course, Stuckey had to pop in with some trash, backing Miner Nation against an overrated Jacksonville State squad.
Read on for our college basketball best bets and picks for Saturday afternoon's slate on Nov. 8.
College Football Best Bets, Picks for Saturday Afternoon
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa vs. Oregon Pick
The key to shutting down the Iowa offense is forcing the Hawkeyes behind the sticks.
Mark Gronowski leads an offense that ranks 31st in Standard Downs Success Rate and 130th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
The former South Dakota State quarterback ranks 121st nationally in On-Target rate, per Sports Info Solutions, measuring the ability to hit a target in stride.
Iowa will more than likely line up in 12 personnel and run outside zone, a tendency used on 115 attempts this season.
Oregon has produced a quality Success Rate against the two-tight-end rush concepts (49%), generating a negative play on 15% of opponent attempts.
Iowa likely won't have much success in passing downs, as the Ducks rank sixth in coverage, per PFF. The Hawkeyes will use play-action when facing long distances to go, but Oregon has been excellent against those designed plays, with a 58% Success Rate.
There are reasons to believe Dante Moore will keep passes behind the line of scrimmage. Iowa's second-heaviest coverage is Cover 2, which Moore struggles with.
The Ducks will look to hit short routes and take advantage of an Iowa defense that ranks 57th in tackling and 98th in broken tackles allowed.
Before Moore hits the passing game, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will be dedicated to establishing the run. That will mean Jordan Davison had the most attempts in a timeshare after he attempted six rushes in man-blocking schemes against Wisconsin in Week 9.
Action Network projects Oregon as a five-point favorite, giving Iowa minimal value unless a flat touchdown becomes available in the market.
However, the total calls for the game to fall at 50 points, with the current market hovering around the key number of 41.
Iowa special teams scores are always on the table, but an advantage in rush explosives for Oregon against a Hawkeyes defense that fails to tackle could produce quick points.
Look for Iowa to own the trench in rushing attempts, generating methodical scoring attempts. Oregon will combat with rush explosives, while both teams are excellent at producing solid field position through special teams.
Check out Collin's full Week 11 card here:
Pick: Over 41 or Better
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Jacksonville State vs. UTEP Pick
By Stuckey
In my opinion, UTEP is one of the most undervalued Group of 5 teams right now.
For starters, the Miners boast one of the top non-Power Conference defenses in the country. Adjusted for opponent, only San Diego State has a better EPA Per Play than UTEP.
The problem for UTEP has been the offense, which has been absolutely dreadful for most of the season.
However, I do think that side of the ball is trending up after the Miners moved on from Malachi Nelson, the worst statistical quarterback in the country.
Just take a look at the difference between Nelson (a walking pick-six) and new starter Skyler Locklear:
- Nelson: 54% completion rate, 8.9 aDOT, 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate, 66.8 Rating
- Locklear: 60% completion rate, 10.1 aDOT, 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate, 80.3 Rating
In its most recent game before the bye week with Locklear at the helm, UTEP likely should have beaten Kennesaw State (one of the two best teams in the conference, along with WKU) if not for some criminal officiating and 16 non-offensive points surrendered in the first half (the only points it allowed over the first 30 minutes).
Meanwhile, this is a prime opportunity to sell high on the Gamecocks, who might also get caught peaking ahead to a showdown with Kennesaw State next week in a battle of undefeated teams in league play for first place in Conference USA.
TCU transfer running back Cam Cook has been a revelation for Jacksonville State, but we do need to pump the brakes a bit on a team that has the following five wins across one of the nation's easiest schedules to date:
- Murray State
- Liberty, when the Flames were a mess, but still finished with a 534-390 yardage edge
- Middle Tennessee by 3 (trailed multiple times in the fourth quarter)
- Sam Houston by 2 on a walk-off 52-yard field goal (also trailed going into the fourth)
A reeling Delaware team by 13
Delaware essentially gifted the Gamecocks an early 21-0 lead with a pair of short fields and a defensive touchdown. The Blue Hens still finished with 68 more net yards, but couldn't overcome a 1-for-5 performance on fourth downs and a -2 turnover margin.
It's worth noting that even with a slightly more difficult schedule, UTEP still has a superior net yards per play edge on the year.
I do expect an entirely focused effort from the Miners, who still have an outside shot of bowl eligibility with a straightforward remaining schedule. Their defense can contain Cook, who's the entire Jacksonville State offense.
Jax State also has a minimal passing attack with new signal-caller Caden Creel, who has no Big-Time Throws and three Turnover-Worthy Plays since taking over under center.
Locklear can do enough on offense against a suspect Jacksonville State defense to get the job done. And if there's any team in the country that's due for a few bounces (-8 turnover margin) or calls, it's the Miners.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 11 situational spots here:
Pick: UTEP +1 or Better
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Duke vs. UConn Pick
This is a perfect spot for the UConn Huskies.
For starters, UConn is a good team. Jim Mora���s squad is 6-3 and has yet to lose a game in regulation this season. The Huskies have already beaten ACC Boston College and took Syracuse to overtime on the road.
Quarterback Joe Fagnano has been brilliant. He has thrown 22 touchdown passes with a single interception, the best ratio in the country. Skyler Bell has been a monster on the outside, leading the nation with 74 catches and 11 touchdowns. Even the running game has been dominant, led by Camryn Edwards.
The Huskies rank 15th nationally in scoring, averaging 36.9 points per game. They are not a team to be slept on, and they catch Duke in a situation that is easy to overlook.
Duke is coming off a massive last-minute win, getting a victory at Clemson for the first time since 1980. Next week, the Devils will host Virginia in a game that likely determines if they reach the ACC Championship game.
This game is meaningless for the Blue Devils.
Even if Duke is focused on this game, the defense ranks 124th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and will struggle to slow down Fagnano and Bell, who have been as good as any duo in the nation.
UConn lost by just five points last season on the road against Duke, and this Huskies team is playing much better than last year’s. Now the Blue Devils head up to Connecticut in a super sleepy sandwich spot? Give me the points with the Huskies.
Check out Ianniello's full Group of 5 card for Week 11 here:
Pick: UConn +9 or Better
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Duke vs. UConn Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Lastly, we turn to a favorite of mine, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah.
Mensah has quietly become one of the nation's top quarterbacks, ranking 18th in completion percentage and 21st in yards per pass.
The Blue Devils have put the ball in his hands a ton, with the offense throwing it at the 14th-highest rate in the country. Mensah has averaged 321 passing yards per game this season and has gone over this total in five of eight games.
With UConn primed to go blow-for-blow with its own passing game, this game has shootout potential, pointing to plenty of yards through the air for Mensah once again.
Pick: Darian Mensah Over 281.5 Passing Yards
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Texas State vs. Louisiana Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities.
The underdog in this range is slight to moderate, with spreads of 2 to 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities in which perception has more influence than actual performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
Want more betting systems? Click here for a great Action PRO subscription:
Pick: Louisiana +3 or Better
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Breese's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday? It's always wise to see what our guy Breese is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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