Let's finish off Week 11 strong.
The LSU Tigers head to Tuscaloosa to battle the Alabama Crimson Tide, and Stuckey has all sorts of takes for this game.
Meanwhile, Collin will be going "Nowhere Fast" on the Island tonight, as San Diego State travels to Hawaii.
Finally, check out our Group of 5 best bets from Gurus Duck and Ianniello.
Read on for our college football best bets and NCAAF picks on Saturday night.
College Football Best Bets for Saturday Night
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday night's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
LSU vs. Alabama Pick
By Stuckey
This is a smaller play here, as it looks like star LSU linebacker Whit Weeks won't suit up even after the bye week.
That's a big loss, but I still think this line is a bit too high, so I'm happy to buy low on the Tigers, who should benefit from the temporary bump we usually see with an interim coach for one week.
Don't be shocked if we even see some packages for backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. in addition to some other new wrinkles that Alabama won't have on film.
I also think there could be some renewed energy in the locker room, as I get the sense Brian Kelly wasn't the most likable head coach among the players.
Additionally, the Alabama defense isn't generating elite pressure. Similar to Georgia, this isn't your older brother's Alabama front seven.
That will provide a lot of relief for a struggling LSU offensive line, which has often been its downfall against SEC competition.
The Tigers may also find some semblance of balance with something on the ground against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 in yards allowed before contact. I like this for many of the same reasons I fancied South Carolina to keep it close.
LSU still has an elite defense that won't have to worry too much about Alabama's ground game. That will allow it to pin its ears back on passing downs, where it should generate plenty of pressure against Ty Simpson, who will take his fair share of sacks.
Ultimately, you should get LSU's best effort here in what now becomes its Super Bowl.
I also just think this Alabama team is a bit overrated. Yes, it won four straight against ranked opponents, but the Tide also got blown out at Florida State and arguably should have lost at South Carolina.
Even against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee, it's not like they completely dominated on the field, also benefiting from a +9 turnover margin.
I believe a much fairer price for this game would be around Alabama -8.5, so I was happy to take double digits with the road 'dog under a new regime.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 11 situational spots here:
Pick: LSU +10.5 or Better
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San Diego State vs. Hawaii Pick
Let’s go nowhere fast.
The total opened at 51 and has been steamed down a point and a half at the time of writing.
Hawaii has no answer for Lucky Sutton on the ground. Jayden Denegal and the Aztecs are super explosive through the air.
I don’t see anything in Hawaii’s statistical profile that shows me the Bows can hang with San Diego State’s offense.
On the other side of the ball, Hawaii ranks third nationally in pass play rate (63%), and that’s a problem against San Diego State, which ranks second nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades and third in Pass Success Rate allowed. Cornerback Chris Johnson is elite.
I don’t think Hawaii will score much, and I’ll play the under.
Listen to the Big Bets On Campus podcast here:
Pick: Under 49 or Better
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Sam Houston vs. Oregon State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This is a great spot to lay it with the Beavers after back-to-back wins. The defense looks much improved with Robb Akey at the helm — they’re playing with attitude and flying to the football.
They’ve allowed fewer than 300 yards at less than four yards per play during this winning streak.
At the same time, Oregon State’s offense will have some fun on Saturday, facing a Sam Houston defense that’s the worst in the C-USA by a wide margin. The Bearkats just allowed 650 yards at 11 yards per play to Louisiana Tech. They’re the worst tackling defense in the nation. They’ve been shredded by every offense they’ve faced.
This is a great spot for Oregon State.
Listen to the Big Bets On Campus Group of 5 Deep Dive here:
Pick: Oregon State -21 or Better
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Air Force vs. San Jose State Pick
Simple handicap: These two defenses are putrid.
Air Force has arguably the nation’s worst defense, surrendering 35 points per game while ranking 135th nationally in Success Rate allowed. They’ve allowed a whopping 7.5 yards per play, the FBS’s worst mark.
It’s ironic how poor Air Force is at defending the air, but the Falcons boast the nation’s worst PFF Coverage grade.
San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget leads the Mountain West in passing yards and touchdowns and will pick apart the secondary all game.
Danny Scudero has been the best receiver in the Group of 5 and leads the entire country in receiving yards. The Falcons have no answer for him.
For San Jose State, its defense hasn’t been much better, ranking 126th nationally in yards per play allowed (6.4). The Spartans are a poor tackling team, ranking 119th in PFF’s Tackling grades. They haven’t even played the top teams in the Mountain West, but they’ve allowed 35 points to teams like Wyoming and Hawaii.
Air Force suddenly has one of the most electric offenses in the country with quarterback Liam Szarka. He is averaging 152.4 passing yards per game and 102 rushing yards per game. He leads the Mountain West with 11 rushing touchdowns and has the Falcons sitting second nationally in Success Rate.
Both of these defenses are abysmal, and the offenses have plenty of juice to rack up the points behind two of the better quarterbacks in the Mountain West. This should be a fun one.
Check out Ianniello's full Group of 5 card for Week 11 here:
Pick: Over 66 or Better
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Wake Forest vs. Virginia Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Early Road Redemption is a college football system that identifies value on visiting teams in the opening stretch of the season after they have underperformed against the spread in their previous outing.
The market often punishes these teams too harshly for a single early loss, leading to inflated lines in the next matchup.
By narrowing the spread range between modest underdogs and double-digit spots, the system captures situations where the road team is competitive but overlooked.
These games are played in manageable weather conditions and typically fall within lower-scoring totals, which reduces volatility and keeps contests closer than expected.
When teams in their first eight games seek redemption on the road after a poor showing against the spread, they frequently outperform expectations, making this a profitable angle.
Good news for our featured system, Stuckey will also be backing Wake Forest in this one.
As he wrote in his Week 7 Spots piece:
"Wake will have the best unit on the field with its defense. I just don't see much separating these teams outside of their records, so I'm happy to take a touchdown on the road against a Virginia team traveling back across the country."
Pick: Wake Forest +7 or Better
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