College football Week 3 rolls on.
Saturday afternoon's slate features a number of intriguing games.
Read below for our 5 College Football Best Bets Today, including picks for USC vs Rutgers and UTEP vs Michigan on Saturday, September 19.
College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 PM | |
  | 3:30 PM | |
  | 3:30 PM | |
  | 4 PM | |
| 4 PM | |
  | 4 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USC vs. Rutgers Best Bet
USC has had a treacherous time traveling East in Big Ten play, but the defensive nature of both these teams suggests that there will be no lack of points.
Jayden Maiava has dominated every coverage look with a trio of freshman wide receivers. That's an element that should play against a Rutgers defense that's bottom 20 in pass explosives allowed.
The Trojans are 28th in finishing drives, and Rutgers' bottom-25 opponent finishing drives rank suggests USC is in for touchdowns, not field goals.
The bigger question is Rutgers 'ability to score to contribute to a total or potentially cover the spread. The Action Network Power Ratings list USC as a 24.5-point favorite, in line with the current market.
The number that needs investment comes on the total, as early projections based on scoring, tempo, and EPA suggest this game lands in the 60s.
Surprisingly, Rutgers is 20th in pass EPA. Surace has had success throwing over 20 yards, generating a touchdown and two big-time throws. 
Expect Rutgers to let Surace air the ball out once a Trojans lead gets over two scores.
While there's no expectation that Rutgers' poor tackling and coverage defense can stop USC, the Scarlet Knights will have a few scores of their own against a Patterson defense that ranks outside the top 100 in opponent passing success rate.
Check out all of Wilson's best bets for Week 3 here:
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Pick: Over 59.5 or Better
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UTEP vs. Michigan Best Bet
By Stuckey
This is a tough spot on paper for Michigan, following a season-saving victory over Oklahoma with a trip to Iowa on tap to kick off Big Ten play.
Last week was an absolute all-out effort following the controversial Hail Mary victory over Western Michigan.
What changed for the Wolverines last week? Well, for starters, they came out ready to play. Additionally, they unleashed Bryce Underwood's legs, which unlocked the offense. He finished with almost as many designed runs (15) as pass attempts (17).
That approach looks like the best path forward for this Michigan offense, but I doubt you want to run Underwood much against a severely outmatched opponent in UTEP.
As a result, Underwood's inaccuracy in the traditional dropback game could lead to a few punts, which is all it might take to stay within this number.
Plus, UTEP is actually working at a very slow pace compared to previous seasons, which is always ideal for a large underdog. And it's not like the Wolverines operate with lightning tempo, which should suppress the number of possessions.
I'm not going to say too many positive things about the Miners, but they did move the ball at times much more effectively than I had expected in the opener at Oklahoma with a brand-new offense. They just couldn't make a field goal, going 0-for-3.
That could be an issue once again, but I at least expect the offense to look better with each passing week.
After maybe working on some dropback passing early in the game to get the timing down in live action, I expect Michigan to just lean on the run to get this over with as quickly as possible, with full health being the main priority.
Check out all of Stuckey's favorite situational spots for Week 3 here:
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Pick: UTEP +35 or Better
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Florida State vs. Alabama Best Bet
By Jordan Vanek
I think Florida State’s game plan will be to blitz Keelon Russell as much as possible and force him into mistakes, similar to what they did against SMU's Kevin Jennings.
The problem is Jennings still threw for 430 yards against them.
With those same tendencies, I think Russell should be able to clear the 260-yard mark.
Pick: Keelon Russell Higher Than 258.5 Passing Yards
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Ball State vs. Liberty Best Bet
By Kyle Hunter
Liberty has once again started the season really poorly on offense.
The Flames haven't had the explosiveness they were expected to have in the running game. They have zero rushing plays of 30 yards or more through two games, including in the 24-23 win over FCS Gardner-Webb last weekend.
Liberty plays at a bottom-25 pace nationally. It runs the ball on nearly 60% of its offensive plays, but it ranks just 131st nationally in PPA/Rush.
Ball State resides in the bottom 50 in tempo as well. I think it'll try to shorten the game here if it can.
The Cardinals defense isn’t good, but it's a touch better than expected. Ohio State struggled to run the football in the first half against this team.
Liberty put up only 5.7 yards per play against Gardner-Webb. Kanye Udoh is the most talented running back on the Liberty roster, but he has only one carry through the first two games.
The posted total in this game has dropped by more than a touchdown. Although the line move makes sense, Liberty is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers. Rather than taking Ball State on the spread, I’d rather fade the Flames offense here.
Check out more of Hunter's team total bets here:
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Pick: Liberty TT Under 32 or Better
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Ball State vs. Liberty Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Undervalued Road Dogs is a college football system that identifies situations where teams receiving little market respect have a stronger chance of covering the spread than expected.
These games occur in the regular season when the spread is set between 7.5 and 21.5 points, suggesting the road team is viewed as a heavy underdog.
Often these teams are on losing streaks away from home, which drives public perception even lower, but their Pythagorean rating indicates they are still performing competitively within a reasonable margin.
When the closing total is between 39 and 55.5, scoring is projected to be moderate, giving the underdog a better chance to keep the game within the number.
With public betting often leaning toward the favorite in these spots, the road dog is overlooked, allowing the line to offer value.
This combination of perception, spread range, and statistical balance consistently highlights underdogs that cover more often than expected.
Sure, Ball State is probably not a great team, but the Cardinals' statistical profile is skewed by the beatdown it took against Ohio State in Week 1. They bounced back by crushing Stony Brook in Week 2.
Meanwhile, what's up with Liberty? The Flames opened the season with a seven-point loss to James Madison and a disgusting one-point win over Gardner-Webb.
The Flames are always talented for a G6 squad, but they look lost in the early going. It seems things haven't quite meshed on the offensive side of the ball yet (38% Success Rate, 108th nationally), although they're probably due to punch in a few more touchdowns (1.77 points per opportunity, 134th nationally).
Still, we're catching over two touchdowns in a game with a total below 50 against a favorite that has looked underwhelming to start the year. Plus, neither of these teams wants to push the pace (especially Liberty, which ranks 130th nationally in seconds per play), so the game could shorten up pretty quickly.
Pick: Ball State +14 or Better
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Northern Iowa vs. Iowa Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
This line has bounced around this week and can be found with Iowa favored by between 38 and 41 points. The total comes in at 49.5. I'm going to take Northern Iowa in this game at +40.5.
Iowa comes into this game a bit banged up, and lingering questions remain regarding the high-profile quarterback battle that spilled into the opener.
Hank Brown has thrown the ball pretty well this season, and the emergence of Diaz has been really helpful. Yet, several questions at Kirk Ferentz’s most recent press conference surrounded why Jeremy Hecklinski didn’t play.
Being unsettled at the most important position on the field creates more questions than answers for an offense that's going to be missing key pieces.
DJ Vonnahme and LJ Phillips aren't likely to suit up in this game, while Kamari Moulton is considered day-to-day. Iowa is deep at running back and tight end, but without some of its star power, this offense will be less potent.
I wouldn't be stunned to see Addison Ostrenga, Zach Ortwerth, and Thomas Meyer take on more of a role this week in the run-blocking department and for reserve running backs to receive the majority of the touches.
Tony Diaz will see some targets come his way, but I expect this game plan to be quite conservative for Iowa’s offense.
Iowa’s defense played exceptionally well the first two weeks, but I believe this will be a game used to get plenty of depth players into the rotation. The Hawkeyes are coming off a physical game against Iowa State and have Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington on deck before the bye week.
Style points are a swear word around the Iowa football facilities, and I don't imagine Ferentz opening up the playbook or running up the score against the Panthers.
I can see Dailey having some success through the air, and I wouldn't be surprised to see UNI find the end zone at least once in this game.
Northern Iowa has 70 players who grew up in Iowa, many fulfilling a lifelong dream of playing at Kinnick Stadium. This game will mean a ton more to UNI, and we should see maximum effort here.
The Hawkeyes will win this game comfortably, but I suspect a slow-burning second half with minimal Iowa scoring, keeping UNI within the number.
Pick: Northern Iowa +40 or Better
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