Wednesday College Football Betting Odds & Picks: Analysis on NIU-Toledo & Bowling Green-Miami
Matt Cashore, USA Today Sports.
Bowling Green at Miami Odds
- Spread: Miami -17
- Over/Under: 50
- Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN U
Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Bowling Green at Miami Line Movement
An 18.5-point opening spread in favor of Miami Ohio hasn’t turned bettors away from the favorite, as 66% of bets to this point have landed on the RedHawks. As for actual money, however, it’s been almost the exact opposite. Sixty-eight percent of the loot on this spread has come on the underdog, revealing that bigger bettors are finding value in the points. Perhaps as a result, this spread has been lowered to a flat 18.
The total, on the other hand, has generated a sense of agreement between the majority of bettors and the bigger bettors, as the under has attracted 64% of bets and 76% of dollars. Oddsmakers have reacted by dropping the total from 51.5 to 49.5 at some spots. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: When Will Miami’s Luck Run Out?
If MACtion wants to turn the East Division on its head, Bowling Green would need to pull off the upset as a three-touchdown underdog on Wednesday night.
This projects as a low-scoring game and if the forecasted wind holds, this total will continue to drop.
Miami of Ohio is coming off a close win over Ohio in a huge game in the race for the East Division. Miami now controls its own destiny in the hunt for a trip to Detroit for the MAC Championship game. The RedHawks have put themselves in this position despite having one of the worst offenses in the country.
Miami ranks 126th in rushing success and 117th in passing success and have a -0.67 yards per play differential. The RedHawks have been out-gained in wins over Ohio, Northern Illinois and Buffalo. In other words, Chuck Martin’s team has benefited from some good fortune this season.
Bowling Green also boasts a negative yards per play differential and ranks 123rd in passing success rate. The Falcons are also susceptible to giving up the big play, ranking outside the top 110 in preventing explosive plays.
We may see a lot of punts in this one as neither of these squads are particularly good on third down. Bowling Green ranks 109th in converting third downs and Miami ranks 120th.
The Falcons should be able to move the ball on the ground through Andrew Clair and Bryson Denley. Miami ranks 98th in opportunity and power success rate, so Bowling Green’s two-headed rushing attack could have some big moments on Wednesday night.
Miami’s offensive gameplan won’t be all that different, as it will look to feed the ball to their running backs, Jaylon Bester and Tyre Shelton.
If this game stays on script and both teams go with a run-heavy strategy, points may be hard to come by and the clock should be on the move. While that does give a bit of value to Bowling Green against an inflated spread, I think the Under may have more value.
Bowling Green ranks 121st in red zone scoring percentage, meaning it is one of the worst teams in the nation at finishing drive. Miami isn’t much better in that regard, ranking 102nd in red zone touchdown percentage, overall.
Neither of these teams are explosive, they both have trouble finishing drives and the clock should be on the move. All of those factors lead me to investing in the Under at 50 or better.
The Bet: Under 50 or better
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Northern Illinois at Toledo Odds
- Spread: Toledo -2.5
- Over/Under: 53
- Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN 2
Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Northern Illinois at Toledo Line Movement
As a short home favorite boasting a better record, Toledo has generated the majority of bets in this game (69%). Despite that, the percentage of money landing on the Rockets is all the way down at 16%.
The line movement hasn’t necessarily reflected that impressive percentage discrepancy, as the spread sits at its opening number of Toledo -2.5. It’s worth noting, though, that when oddsmakers attempted to increase the line to -3, they were convinced to bring the line back inside the key number.
The total has come down a bit from its opener, and it looks like weather could be playing a role. Double-digit wind speeds are expected to move across the field, which should limit pass and kick effectiveness, and the number has fallen from 55 to 52.5. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: Can NIU Stop Toledo’s Rushing Attack?
The Huskies and Rockets had long been the blue bloods of the MAC, with the winner of this matchup annually attending the conference championship game.
In 2019, Northern Illinois is one loss away from losing bowl eligibility and Toledo will need a lot of help to have a chance to win the MAC West.
The Rockets are undefeated at home and were undefeated Against the Spread at the Glass Bowl until Kent State beat the number last week. The Huskies, meanwhile, have just one win on the road this season.
The advanced statistics for both teams suggest that those home-and-away splits may hold true in this tilt. Northern Illinois’ offense hasn’t gotten going this season, ranking 112th in rushing success rate and 117th in converting third downs.
Toledo’s defense has struggled this season, but its main issue has been stopping big plays. The Rockets rank outside the top 100 in preventing explosiveness. The good news for Toledo is that Northern Illinois is one of the worst teams in the country at generating explosiveness.
The biggest discrepancy in the numbers is Toledo’s edge on the ground. The Rockets have the eighth-most explosive rushing attack while the Huskies rank 123rd in preventing explosive runs.
Our Action Network projections make Toledo a 2.5-point favorite in this game,
Toledo should have multiple chunk gains on the ground in this one. Our Action Network projections make this line Toledo -2.5, so I will be more than happy to wait until kickoff for some Northern Illinois steam to hit the market. At that point I’ll look to back Toledo -2 or play the Rockets on the moneyline.
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