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Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Bets for Week 7

Oct 13, 2018 11:28 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson is back with his favorite bets for Week 7's college football slate.
  • He's laying the points with a few favorites, and backing a few dirty dogs that haven't looked good this season.

The CW9 went contrarian with Central Michigan, Virginia Tech and Texas State last week, and we got rewarded with plenty of turnovers and third-down inefficiency. It was good to get UAB and Pitt outright, but there is still plenty of work to do in this column to line everyone’s pockets with cash.

Week 7 means we’re close to the first rankings for the College Football Playoff. Georgia-LSU and Michigan-Wisconsin will go a long way toward determining those rankings, but there are plenty of conference and divisional angles to take advantage of this week.

This column will leverage The Action Network power ratings and plenty of advanced stats from Football Outsiders.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 7 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 27-26-1


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All data below as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.


College Football Betting Picks, Week 7

Florida at Vanderbilt

  • Spread: Vanderbilt +7
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

Florida makes its way to Nashville after consecutive emotional victories over Mississippi State and LSU. Dan Mullen has rebounded nicely from an embarrassing program loss to Kentucky.

The Gators will head into a bye week after this game with Vanderbilt, leaving Mullen with two goals for this game — seal a victory and get out healthy in this possible hangover spot.

Vanderbilt has some terrible splits in the advanced numbers, but that could be excused with a strength of schedule rank at 14th. The Commodores are great with explosiveness on both sides of the ball, ranking 30th on offense and 28th on defense. Florida will have a tough time stopping big plays on the ground and in the air.

Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has been fantastic for Vanderbilt so far this season, with 1,400 yards passing and a ranking of 14th in explosiveness on passing downs. He is protected by an offensive line that ranks 17th in adjusted sack rate.

It’s worth noting that Florida is second in the nation in turnover margin at +11 so far this season. Look for some regression to the mean at some point for that Gators, and for Shurmur to extend drives in passing-down situations to keep this inside the number.

Play On: Vanderbilt +7

Troy at Liberty

  • Spread: Liberty +9.5
  • Over/Under: 63.5
  • Time: 2 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: WatchESPN

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Shurmur, Jake Fromm and Karan Higdon

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