College Football Bowl Predictions for Week 9: Brett McMurphy’s Projections With Projected Spreads
Adam Hagy/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia’s Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.
Week 9 College Football Bowl Projections
As we pass the halfway point of the season, it’s time for my bowl projections to — you know — really start projecting. Get serious. No more guesswork. I’ve put away my Magic 8 Ball.
Sure, when a team starts 2-0 it’s easy for me to project them in a New Year’s Six bowl. However, when that team loses four of its next five games, I wonder if it will even become bowl eligible. But enough about Miami.
With only four or five games remaining in the regular season, 27 teams already have reached the magical six-win bowl-eligibility mark. Only two teams — Akron and Charlotte — are mathematically eliminated from winning six games (and Charlotte’s Will Healy was fired Sunday after the 49ers’ seventh bowl-eliminating loss).
Based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings, I can (hopefully) make a more educated projection on which teams reach six wins. Obviously, this is based on the favored team winning every game — which, of course, never happens. But enough about Texas.
Using Wilson’s ratings, I'm projecting there will be 79 bowl-eligible teams to fill 84 bowl spots. That means, five 5-7 teams would need a “bowl waiver” to participate in a bowl. Don’t worry, the NCAA passes out bowl waivers like candy on Halloween — the more, the merrier — so there will be enough teams to play in all 42 bowls.
Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, there have never been more than three losing teams that played in a bowl game in one season. So, we’re on pace to have a record number of losing teams in bowl games. But enough about Iowa.
Based on the bowl system needing five 5-7 teams to fill the openings, I'm currently projecting those teams as Iowa, Kansas, Miami, Michigan State and Texas Tech.
As the bowls get closer, the NCAA will clarify exactly how it will determine the pecking order of 5-7 teams — it will most likely be based on the Academic Progress Rate (APR) rankings.
But until then, here are this week’s projections with Wilson’s projected spreads from his updated college football betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
New Year's Six Bowl Games
Projections for All Other Bowls
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.
**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.