USC vs Washington Odds, Prediction, Pick: Value on Pac-12 Showdown
David Madison/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies.
USC vs Washington Odds
| USC Trojans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 75.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Washington Huskies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 75.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
College football is so beautiful because of its diversity.
In the same week, Iowa vs. Northwestern's total threatens to dip below 30, and USC vs Washington's total assumes there'll be around 11 touchdowns in the matchup.
But while Brian Ferentz, the man responsible for the aforementioned low total, received his walking papers this week for the 2024 season, USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has still apparently not done enough to earn his.
These are two of the nation's highest-powered offenses. Washington (8-0) has slipped into a funk the last two weeks, but USC (6-2) might be spiraling out of control.
Is there a play to make on one of the highest totals of the season? Or is the smarter move to back one of these teams to get back on track for the season’s homestretch?
Let's dive into the Washington vs. USCodds and make a prediction and pick for Saturday's Pac-12 college football showdown.
The hype surrounding Lincoln Riley’s USC program has quickly lost steam as the defense remains the team’s fatal flaw. The Trojans have allowed 41-plus points in four of their last five games, with Utah being the lone team held in the 30s – a game in which USC lost.
There are no redeeming qualities for this unit. The Trojans struggle against both the pass and the rush. They've allowed over 300 yards passing to teams like Arizona State, Arizona and Colorado, now ranking 128th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
USC is arguably even worse against the run, where six of their nine opponents have rushed for over 190 yards against the Trojans, including 247 and 235 in their last two games against Utah and Cal, respectively.
The only thing keeping USC in the Pac-12 hunt has been Caleb Williams and the offense. Despite three straight games against Arizona, Notre Dame and Utah that were below the high standards associated with the reigning Heisman winner, Williams still leads the Pac-12 with 25 passing touchdowns.
USC’s 45.9 points per game are the second most in the nation, and the Trojans have one of the nation's most explosive playmakers in MarShawn Lloyd. The former South Carolina running back has the third most 20-plus yards nationally, and he racked up 115 yards rushing and 72 yards receiving last week against Cal.
Michael Penix Jr. bounced back from his first multi-interception game in Week 9 by throwing for 369 yards and four scores against the Sun Devils last week.
Washington’s 25 passing touchdowns are the third most in the country, a number that’s only going to grow facing a USC defense that's allowed the third most passing touchdowns.
One potential bugaboo for the Washington offense is the recent poor play on the interior offensive line. Not only is it impacting how quickly Penix has to throw the ball, but the Huskies' signal-caller has taken some big hits recently, and those are starting to add up.
USC ranks 11th in Havoc and 23rd in sacks, so it will be on the Huskies to keep Penix upright, especially with no support in the ground game.
The Huskies are no stranger to shootouts, as its defense has allowed over 30 points in three of its six conference games. Washington struggles most against the run, ranking 125th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Despite the high scores, Washington ranks top-50 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, primarily because of a strong secondary that's fifth in passes defended (49) and 19th in PFF's Coverage grades.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and USC match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs USC Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 82 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 85 |
USC Offense vs Washington Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 37 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 90 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (72) | 26.2 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 38.3% (127) | 46.2% (117) |
USC vs Washington
Prediction and Pick
This is an ultimate vibe-check game.
The Huskies have spent two weeks stuck in a funk, while USC looks checked out.
Points will be scored, but I want nothing to do with a total in the mid-70s.
Washington, at its best, is a problem for any team, and its defense has shown that it can at least relatively slow down teams like Oregon.
USC, meanwhile, has shown zero evidence it can slow even an average offense, let alone what is the best offense it has faced this season.
The Trojans are ready to shut it down, while Washington has a point to prove, and only having to swallow four points feels like a gift.
Back the Huskies to put the nail in USC’s coffin.
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