College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Buffalo vs. Old Dominion: Bulls Set To Rebound?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Buffalo vs. Old Dominion: Bulls Set To Rebound? article feature image
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Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Buffalo Bulls quarterback Kyle Vantrease.

  • Buffalo faces Old Dominion after it dropped two straight games.
  • The Monarchs were blown out by Wake Forest in Week 1, bounced back with a win over Hampton in Week 2 and lost to Liberty in Week 3.
  • Matt Wispe offers up his best bet for this matchup below.

Buffalo vs. Old Dominion Odds

Buffalo Odds -13 (-110)
Old Dominion Odds +13 (-110)
Moneyline -510 / +375
Over/Under 51 (-110 / -110)
Time 6 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Buffalo enters Saturday’s game off of back-to-back losses, with its only win coming against FCS side Wagner.

As for Old Dominion, it’s a 1-2 team that skipped the 2020 season. The Monarchs’ victory came against FCS program Hampton.

After its dominating win over Wagner, Buffalo was brought back down to earth in a one-sided loss to Nebraska. However, first-year coach Maurice Linguist managed to get his team prepared for Coastal Carolina and the Bulls kept the score close in defeat.

Old Dominion’s games have been one-sided in both directions. The Monarchs’ losses have been by an average of 30 points and their win was by 40 points.


Buffalo vs. Old Dominion Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
6 p.m. ET
ESPN+

Buffalo Bulls

Buffalo Offense

Their 1-2 record may fool you, but the Bulls have been efficient on offense in their three games.

They’ve scored 32.3 points per contest, averaging 6.7 yards per play. They’ve also averaged 25.6 seconds per play.  Some of this is buoyed by their opening game against Wagner, but their competitive game against Coastal Carolina appears to show that this offense is back on track.

Quarterback Kyle Vantrease is completing 61.8% of his pass attempts and averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. The Bulls have only averaged two passes over 20 yards per game. They have a passing success rate of 61%.

Buffalo has run the ball 53% of the time, splitting the workload between a few backs.

Kevin Marks leads the group with 54 carries for 221 yards. As a team, the Bulls are averaging 6.3 yards per carry and have a rushing success rate of 48.5%.

They’ve shown the ability to break away on long runs with 1.67 20+ yard runs per game.

Their offensive line has made the running back’s jobs easier as they have generated 3.24 line yards per attempt and have allowed an 11% stuff rate.


Buffalo Defense

After a dominant performance against an overmatched Wagner team, the Bulls have allowed 28 points in back-to-back games.

In those two outings, they’ve allowed 7.86 yards per play. For the year, they’ve allowed an overall success rate of 44.6% and have held opponents to 2.8 points per opportunity.

The pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 63% of their passes and has allowed a passing success rate of 54.8%. They’ve managed to hold opponents to just 2.33 passes over 20 yards per game, but haven’t been able to force turnovers with only one interception in three games.

The run defense starts with the defensive line that has held opponents to 3.05 line yards per attempt and stuffed 13.9% of attempts. The Bulls allowed a rushing success rate of 39.2%, but against their two FBS opponents, they yielded 5.2 yards per rush.

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Old Dominion Monarchs

Old Dominion Offense

Old Dominion has averaged 24.7 points per game in its first three games and 4.7 yards per play. The offense has an overall success rate of 45.8% and has averaged 25.4 seconds per play.

Quarterback D.J. Mack Jr. has taken over the starting job for the Monarchs, completing just 47.1% of his passes for an average of 4.8 yards per attempt. He’s thrown for just two touchdowns and has three interceptions.

The Monarchs have a Passing Success Rate of 40.7% and have completed 1.67 passes over 20 yards per game.

Mack also leads the team in rush attempts with 32, but while he hasn’t produced significant yardage, he’s scored three times. Elijah Davis and Jon-Luke Peaker have been the backfield leaders. They’ve averaged 6.96 yards per rush attempt.

As a whole, the team has a Rushing Success Rate of 50%, which has been helped by their line generating 3.61 line yards/attempt.


Old Dominion Defense

Old Dominion’s defense has allowed 31.3 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. The defense has allowed a success rate of 39.7% and has allowed an average of 3.33 explosive plays per game.

Despite containing opponents from consistent explosive plays, foes have found success finishing drives with 5.2 points per opportunity.

The Monarchs’ run defense has been a strength, as it has allowed a rushing success rate of 36%. Yet, even as it has controlled the running game, it hasn’t dominated the line of scrimmage. Old Dominion has conceded 3.31 line yards per attempt and has only stuffed 9.3% of rush attempts.

The pass defense has been more of an issue. It has allowed a passing success rate of 45.1%.

Explosive plays have been more prevalent through the passing game, as the Monarchs have allowed 2.33 20-plus yard passing plays per game. And while they’ve defended five passes, they have no interceptions.


Buffalo vs. Old Dominion Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Old Dominion match up statistically:

Buffalo Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 43 33
Line Yards 50 99
Pass Success 3 90
Pass Blocking** 111 117
Big Play 122 50
Havoc 10
Finishing Drives 54 120
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Old Dominion Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 33 25
Line Yards 16 21
Pass Success 82 2
Pass Blocking** 62 23
Big Play 57 113
Havoc 86
Finishing Drives 26 24
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 1 119
PFF Coverage 111 114
Middle 8 100 94
SP+ Special Teams 113 85
Plays per Minute 57 49
Rush Rate 59.4% (41) 57.7% (54)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Both of these offenses prefer to lean on their respective running games, and that’s each team’s defensive strength.

The biggest difference in this meeting will be Buffalo’s ability to score once they cross the 50-yard line and Old Dominion’s inability to stop it.


Buffalo vs. Old Dominion Betting Pick

According to the Pro Report, sharp money has come in on the Bulls, as well as the bulk of the money and tickets. And that’s the side I’m favoring this game.

While Buffalo appears to have taken a significant step backward from last season, it still appears to have significant advantages. Until the game crosses the two-touchdown mark, I’m taking the Bulls.

If, or more realistically when, the line does go past two touchdowns, I’d lean in favor of the under 49.5 total or better, as both of these teams lean heavily on their running games.

Pick: Buffalo -14 or better

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