Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina College Football Odds & Picks: Grayson McCall’s Status Affects Over/Under
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Grayson McCall.
- No. 22 Coastal Carolina is a heavy favorite over Georgia State on Saturday.
- The Chanticleers appear likely to be without QB Grayson McCall, which affects betting strategy for this one.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks it all down, delivering his pick for bettors below.
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -10.5 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Coastal Carolina didn't have a vintage performance last week playing without quarterback Grayson McCall, but the program managed a win — and cover — in its 28-8 win against Georgia Southern.
His status for the remainder of the season remains uncertain as of Wednesday, but he seems unlikely to play. That's a tough situation, because the Chanticleers' season prospects hinge on the health of their star quarterback ahead of Saturday's game against Georgia State..
Coastal Carolina, which has just one loss on the season at Appalachian State, continues to be one of the better teams in the country against the spread after its excellent against-the-spread record last season and undefeated straight-up regular season.
However, trying to cover a double-digit number without McCall for the second consecutive week could be a major obstacle, given how much worse the the Chanticleers' offense performed without him through the air.
It's been an up-and-down season for Georgia State after it nearly pulled off an upset at Auburn, but was crushed by Army, North Carolina and Appalachian State in between that near win against Auburn.
The Panthers need two of three against Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State and Troy to become bowl eligible, so they've got a real opportunity to pull off the road upset if McCall is out.
Panthers' Offense Is Ground-Based
Georgia State Offense
There hasn't been a quarterback battle at Georgia State for weeks now, but former starter Cornelius Brown entered the transfer portal last week after he was benched following the second week of the season. The offense has made solid improvements since quarterback Darren Grainger took over, though.
Most of that has not come through the air, though, where he averages just 115 yards per game passing. The success has come on the ground, where Georgia State runs the ball a ton and is usually pretty effective at it.
Sitting 29th in Rushing Success Rate and 36th in Line Yards is solid production, especially when teams are spending the week gearing up to stop the run. The offense likes to play a pretty fast pace and could be in serious trouble if it falls down early and has to pass to try to come from behind.
So long as this competitive and within a score or two, Gerogia State should be able to move the ball on the ground. And once it gets past the 40-yard line, the Panthers are 24th in finishing drives. I'd expect them to slow it down more than usual in the hopes of pulling the upset by keeping the ball from the Coastal Carolina ball-control offense.
Georgia State Defense
Allowing 43 points to Army and 59 points to North Carolina to begin the college football season were major red flags for the defense. The improvements have come since then, though, as the Panthers kept Auburn in check for most of their game and got Bo Nix benched.
They followed that up with a poor pass-defense performance against Appalachian State and two solid showings against Louisiana and Georgia Southern. When teams are balanced like North Carolina and Appalachian State and have capable quarterbacks, the Panthers have been exposed defensively.
With McCall in this game, I'd probably lay the adjusted point spread on Coastal Carolina. There's not much resistance in the secondary, not much Havoc and a poor finishing-drives rating for this Panthers defense.
However, Carpenter appears very limited as a quarterback and won't be able to exploit Georgia State. Instead, it'll be a lot of running from the Chanticleers into a solid Panthers defense. They probably won't shut down Coastal Carolina, but they'll slow them down and make it difficult, which helps the under in this game.
Coastal Carolina Offense In Flux Without McCall
Coastal Carolina Offense
The news out of Coastal Carolina on Wednesday wasn’t particularly promising surrounding McCall's status. It seems to be a matter of pain management for the quarterback, but that he's dealing with an upper body/chest/shoulder injury that impacts his ability to throw the ball without pain. He seems unlikely to play, according to head coach Jamey Chadwell.
That means it's a second start for Bryce Carpenter, a senior backup who has played very little in his time with the program.
Carpenter managed just 85 passing yards on 13 of 20 passing, for a measly 4.25 yards per attempt. It's far from the country's most efficient passer in McCall and you can pretty much throw out the Coastal Carolina offensive numbers with McCall out of the lineup.
One thing is for sure: Coastal Carolina will lean on the run event more heavily than usual. The Chanticleers rank top 15 in rush rate nationally and might be running even more than the 41-20 run-to-pass split they had in last week.
Coastal Carolina has solid advantages on the ground in this game, ranking 15th in Rushing Success Rate and 14th in Line Yards. The Georgia State defense is a middling run defense, so there should be just enough success for the Chanticleers to extend drives, play at a slow pace and keep the chains moving.
It's unlikely that Coastal Carolina will maintain its third ranking in finishing drives without its quarterback though, so touchdowns may be harder to come by once the Chanticleers pass the 40-yard line. It's also harder for Coastal Carolina to replicate its second place ranking in big play if the offense is this limited through the air.
Both signs point toward long, slow scoring drives for Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina Defense
The Coastal Carolina run defense has shown some vulnerabilities at various points these season, but had an excellent showing last week, holding Georgia Southern to just eight points and 86 yards rushing on 36 carries. The Panthers won't be exactly the same, but they'll look to run the ball and run it often.
Coastal Carolina’s defense ranks middle of the road in rush defense, sitting 54th in Rushing Success Rate and 51st in Defensive Line Yards. Most importantly, Coastal Carolina doesn't allow big plays because it tackles really well. The Chanticleers rank 21st in preventing big plays and have the 16th-best tackling grades, per PFF.
The statistical strength of the defense is in the secondary, where Coastal Carolina ranks in the top 25 in pass rush, pass success rate and passing explosiveness allowed. However, that won't be really tested much by the Panthers' run heavy attack.
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:
Georgia State Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 24 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 112 | 23 | |
| Big Play | 84 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 68 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 61 | 29 | |
| Big Play | 2 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 98 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 16 |
| Coverage | 109 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 2 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 69 | 57 |
| Plays per Minute | 16 | 124 |
| Rush Rate | 64.5% (9) | 62.5% (15) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Pick
Whether or not McCall plays is worth up to five points to the number, according to our projections. His ability to sustain drives through the air and aid the ball control is crucial for Coastal Carolina’s ability to get margin.
Without McCall, it's hard to see any explosiveness from Coastal Carolina to get margin here and with two run heavy teams, this should be a lower scoring game if he doesn't play.
Keep an eye on McCall news, because the Chanticleers are very underpriced if he plays, but otherwise, I'll be playing the under 52.5 points. The snail Coastal Carolina tempo will grind this game to a halt and it will lean even heavier on the run than usual minus McCall.
Even though Georgia State plays up-tempo, I'd expect it to play a bit slower if this is a close game and expect it to run the ball repeatedly and look to pull off the upset.
Georgia State is good enough in the trenches to not get run over, and Coastal Carolina’s excellent tackling numbers should prevent any Georgia State explosiveness on the ground from putting up quick points.
Pick: Under 52.5 points
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