College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Georgia Tech vs. Duke: Blue Devils in For Rude Awakening

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Georgia Tech vs. Duke: Blue Devils in For Rude Awakening article feature image
Credit:

Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims.

  • Both Georgia Tech and Duke are looking to bounce back from losses in Week 5 of the college football season.
  • The Yellow Jackets will have to attempt to stop one of the nation's top rushers in Mataeo Durant.
  • Kyle Remillard previews the ACC game and offers up his best bet.

Georgia Tech vs. Duke Odds

Georgia Tech Odds -4.5 (-110)
Duke Odds +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline -195 / +165
Over/Under 60.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 12:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN3
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Georgia Tech and Duke look to bounce back from 31-point defeats last week when they square off in Saturday’s action.

The Yellow Jackets had a nightmare start to their game against Pittsburgh last time out. Quarterback Jeff Sims threw interceptions on his first two pass attempts, with the second one getting returned for a touchdown.

Georgia Tech was unable to recover from the treacherous start, ultimately suffering a 52-21 blowout loss.

It was a disappointing performance after the Yellow Jackets put up three strong outings in a row. They previously battled Clemson to the final play of the game and defeated North Carolina by 23 points.

Duke was lackluster against North Carolina last week, showing little signs of an offensive pulse. The Blue Devils averaged just 4.9 yards per play in their 38-7 defeat.

They have benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the country, which included Charlotte, North Carolina A&T, Kansas and Northwestern.

So, where does the edge lie in this ACC showdown?


Georgia Tech vs. Duke Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
12:30 p.m. ET
ESPN3

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech Offense

Georgia Tech’s offense has seen strong improvement over the last two weeks, thanks to the return of Sims. He was sidelined with a shoulder injury suffered in the opening week but returned for the victory over North Carolina.

Sims is a true dual-threat quarterback who averaged 12.8 yards per carry while running and throwing for more than 100 yards in his return. He rebounded from his two early interceptions against Pitt by throwing for more than 350 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 10.9 yards per pass attempt.

His ability to run the read-option and extend plays has made the Yellow Jackets much more dangerous.

The offense has seen a jump in Explosive Plays and Havoc since the return of Sims. It should see even more success against a defense that has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks.


Georgia Tech Defense

Georgia Tech’s defense held Clemson to 14 points and 284 total yards of offense. The unit sacked Sam Howell eight times and created three turnovers against the high-flying North Carolina offense.

However, it laid an egg last week, allowing 580 yards of total offense and 52 points to Pittsburgh.

The Yellow Jackets struggle in creating Havoc, where they rank 106th in the country. However, their defensive strength has been stopping the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and ranking inside the top 30 in Rush Success Rate.

The run defense is pivotal in this matchup as Duke is a run-first team behind Mataeo Durant. If the Yellow Jackets can slow him down, then the Blue Devils’ offense will stall.

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Duke Blue Devils

Duke Offense

The Duke offense looks strong on paper, averaging 32 points per game and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Yet, those statistics have come against some of the worst defenses, according to SP+, such as Charlotte (123rd), Kansas (121st) and FCS opponent North Carolina A&T.

The quarterback play of Gunnar Holmberg has been full of smoke and mirrors.

Against North Carolina, he averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, including an 80-yard touchdown pass. Remove that touchdown from the equation, and Holmberg passed for just 104 yards on 23 attempts, good for an average of 4.5 YPPA.

The success of the Duke offense has been reliant on the legs of Durant, who has rushed for nearly 2,000 yards in his career. This season, Durant is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has punched in eight touchdowns.

Duke has struggled mightily to take care of the ball with six fumbles and three interceptions on the season.


Duke Defense

The defense was mediocre during the first month of the season against some bland offenses.

But we saw their true colors last week against North Carolina, where they struggled to get off the field on third down. Howell averaged 10 yards per passing attempt and picked apart the secondary.

Duke has struggled against the pass, allowing 9.2 yards per pass attempt against FBS opponents, which has them ranked 117th in the nation.

They have struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks, which was highlighted in their win over Kansas.

The Blue Devils allowed Jason Bean to lead the 110th-ranked offense to 24 points in the first half and throw for 10.1 yards per attempt. That’s a major concern, as Sims has been as effective running the ball as throwing it.


Georgia Tech vs. Duke Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Duke match up statistically:

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Duke Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 103 73
Line Yards 96 60
Pass Success 88 38
Pass Blocking** 72 56
Big Play 53 81
Havoc 71 39
Finishing Drives 79 88
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Duke Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 17 29
Line Yards 26 67
Pass Success 32 53
Pass Blocking** 29 79
Big Play 53 47
Havoc 59 106
Finishing Drives 12 60
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 82 109
PFF Coverage 103 105
Middle 8 19 77
SP+ Special Teams 100 57
Plays per Minute 56 8
Rush Rate 59.4% (37) 58.5% (43)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Georgia Tech vs. Duke Betting Pick

Duke football is extremely overvalued at this point in the season. The Blue Devils’ 3-2 record isn’t a good indicator of the lack of talent on this team, as they benefited from an easy non-conference schedule.

They are in store for a rude awakening as they enter ACC play.

Duke has won just one game in its last 11 ACC matchups, including a 56-33 slaughter by Georgia Tech last season. The Yellow Jackets ran for nearly 400-yards while averaging 7.9 yards per carry. They ran in four touchdowns, plus Sims connected for another three scores through the air.

We should see Georgia Tech’s offense thrive once again in this matchup, with Sims going for another 100-yards passing and rushing.

Pick: Georgia Tech -3.5 (Play up to -4)

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