Iowa State vs. Kansas State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will the Cyclones Stay in Big 12 Title Race?

Iowa State vs. Kansas State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will the Cyclones Stay in Big 12 Title Race? article feature image
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  • Iowa State and Kansas State meet for a Big 12 matchup on Saturday night.
  • While the Cyclones haven't met preseason expectations, a win over the Wildcats keeps their conference title hopes alive.
  • Check out Alex Hinton's breakdown and top pick for the game, below.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State Odds

Iowa State Odds -6.5 (-115)
Kansas State Odds +6.5 (-105)
Moneyline -255 / +205
Over/Under 51
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Iowa State enters this one 3-2 and unranked, a far cry from its preseason expectations as a top-10 team with plans to bust into the College Football Playoff.

With just one conference loss, the Big 12 title is still a possibility for Iowa State. The Cyclones beat up on Kansas State’s in-state rival Kansas, 59-7, before heading into a bye last week.

Kansas State is also 3-2, but 0-2 in the conference after consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Another loss likely eliminates the Wildcats from the Big 12 title race.

Kansas State beat the Cyclones 45-0 last season. The programs have split the last four meetings. Iowa State leads the all-time series 51-49-4, a rivalry that has become known as “Farmagedon”.


Iowa State vs. Kansas State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Offense

Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell went into Kansas and landed Wichita native Breece Hall a few years ago as a recruit.

The star running back is now the engine of the Cyclones and has 194 yards and three touchdowns against his home state team. After a slow start, Hall is up to 553 yards rushing on 5.3 yards per carry and eight touchdowns.

Hall is a big reason why the Cyclones are fifth in creating explosive plays, however, the passing game is no slouch.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is completing 71% of his passes and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. Wide Xavier Hutchinson leads the team with 31 receptions for 381 yards and three touchdowns.

Tight ends Chase Allen and Charlie Kolar give Purdy a potent duo to work the seams.


Iowa State Defense

The Cyclones are second in the FBS in passing defense, allowing 144 yards per game through the air.

The number is a tad bit inflated due to the teams they faced so far like Northern Iowa, UNLV, Kansas and Iowa. However, the Cyclones do a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage.

The Cyclones are 22nd in Line Yards and 33rd in pass-rush grade. Defensive ends Eyioma Uwazurike and Will McDonald have combined for 6.5 sacks this season.

Iowa State also does an excellent job of limiting explosive plays, ranking fourth in the FBS in Big Play Rate.

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Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State Offense

The Wildcats were without the services of starting quarterback Skylar Thompson in last year’s loss to the Cyclones. He missed two games this season with a knee injury before he returned against Oklahoma.

Against the Sooners, Thompson went for 29-for-41 for 320 yards and three touchdowns.

His Wildcats will draw a difficult matchup from the Iowa State defense. The Wildcats are 101st in Havoc allowed while Iowa State will have an advantage there and in Passing Success Rate, where the Cyclones rank 19th.

Thompson will have the explosive Deuce Vaughn next to him in the backfield. Vaughn will be the focus of the Cyclones’ game plan as he has 650 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in the first five games.

The Wildcats like to get him out in space to create big plays. However, Iowa State ranks fourth in limiting big plays and 22nd in tackling.


Kansas State Defense

Stopping the run is the first objective for Kansas State. The Wildcats are giving up 86.4 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry, both of which rank No. 7 in the FBS.

Hall will be a tough assignment for the Kansas State defense as the Cyclones average 182 yards on the ground. However, the Wildcats will have a tougher time defending the Cyclones’ passing game.

Kansas State is 85th in coverage grade and 114th in Passing Success Rate. Purdy was 16-for-20 for 235 yards and three touchdowns last year.

The Wildcats are also just 75th in Havoc.


Iowa State vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Kansas State match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 53
Line Yards 17 31
Pass Success 59 114
Pass Blocking** 64 27
Big Play 5 87
Havoc 40 73
Finishing Drives 35 40
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kansas State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 40
Line Yards 39 22
Pass Success 87 19
Pass Blocking** 79 33
Big Play 37 4
Havoc 101 52
Finishing Drives 59 26
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 22 109
Coverage 50 85
Middle 8 7 101
SP+ Special Teams 67 43
Plays per Minute 98 120
Rush Rate 51.8% (77) 60.% (36)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Iowa State vs. Kansas State Betting Pick

Iowa State and Kansas State share some similarities as they’re both well-coached and fundamentally sound teams with rosters filled with guys that were overlooked during their recruiting process. 

The home team has won the last four meetings in the series and Iowa State has lost its last eight trips to Manhattan. Iowa State has the more talented roster and the statistical edge in most categories.

I do think this is the year that Iowa State snaps its road losing streak to Kansas State. However, the line has moved up to -6.5 on most books in favor of Iowa State.

I liked Iowa State at -4.5 and would probably take it up to -6. However, when you add the hook, that’s when I would start looking in Kansas State’s direction.

Iowa State is 2-3 ATS this season, including an outright loss in a similar spot a few weeks back as a seven-point favorite against Baylor.

Kansas State is 3-2 ATS, and I’m backing the home dogs in this one.

Pick: Kansas State +6.5

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