Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Picks, Predictions: Your SEC Betting Guide for Saturday (November 13)

Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Picks, Predictions: Your SEC Betting Guide for Saturday (November 13) article feature image
Credit:

Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Levis.

Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
7 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Kentucky Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-21
-110
52.5
-115o / -105u
-1500
Vanderbilt Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+21
-110
52.5
-115o / -105u
+850
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

SEC play has been in full swing over the past month, and it hasn’t been very kind to these two programs. This Saturday, either Kentucky or Vanderbilt will secure an elusive SEC win.

The Wildcats have been running the SEC East gauntlet and after starting strongly against LSU and Florida, they have dropped three straight.

Last week’s loss in a shootout to Tennessee was especially tough for the Wildcats, with head coach Mark Stoops saying, “very difficult loss, not sure I’ve been a part of one like that. So good in so many ways, but not so good on other things.”

A matchup with the Commodores may be just what Kentucky needs to right the ship. Vanderbilt has lost four straight and shown little signs of competing against superior competition.

Can the Wildcats bounce back, or will they show up flat coming off a season-crushing loss?


Kentucky Wildcats

Will the Wildcats Let Levis Cook?

Kentucky’s success this season has been built around its offensive scheme that is designed to control the clock through the run game and lean on its dominant defense.

In last week’s game against Tennessee, we saw a very different style of offense, though.

The Vols came out of the gates hot, connecting on multiple deep passes that led to quick scores. Instead of taking control of the pace, the Wildcats decided to fire back.

Kentucky quarterback Will Levis had his biggest game of the season, setting season highs in passing attempts and passing yardage. The uptick in passing volume allowed the Wildcats’ offense to go score-for-score with the Volunteers.

Levis wound up putting the team on his back with five total touchdowns (three passing, two rushing).

While the increase in passing volume may have stolen the spotlight, the running game was still very effective. As a team, the Wildcats rushed for 225 at 4.6 per carry clip.

Kentucky should have very few issues against the Vanderbilt defense, which is one of the worst in the country. The Commodores rank outside of the top 100 in nearly every defensive statistical category and advanced metric.

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Vanderbilt Commodores

This Season, Vandy is Not Dandy

The Commodores have had a rough season, to say the least. The simplest representation of that: They average just over 16 points per game but allow 37.

The Vanderbilt offense has been abysmal, ranking north of 120th in many team statistics and offensive metrics this season.

Oddly enough, the Commodores will actually have an edge through the air, as the Wildcats defense is 128th in Passing success Allowed, letting opposing quarterbacks complete over 70% of their passes.

Vandy might have a small edge there, but there should be doubts that it will do anything with it. The Commodores have only averaged 5.5 yards per completion this season, which ranks 126th.


Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Vanderbilt match up statistically:

Kentucky Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 32 107
Line Yards 7 112
Pass Success 85 116
Pass Blocking** 16 124
Big Play 53 121
Havoc 43 99
Finishing Drives 7 114
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Vanderbilt Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 124 47
Line Yards 125 29
Pass Success 111 128
Pass Blocking** 115 71
Big Play 123 64
Havoc 67 42
Finishing Drives 117 67
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 47 112
Coverage 47 118
Middle 8 92 121
SP+ Special Teams 62 120
Plays per Minute 114 70
Rush Rate 55.6% (58) 49.8% (99)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Betting Pick

This spread may be high, but the disparity of this mismatch certainly backs the number. According to our Pro Projections, the spread should be close to 26.

As long as the Wildcats avoid a flat start they should be in total control of this game. Vanderbilt will not be able to slow them down on offense. We may also see a more concerted effort from Kentucky defensively after getting torched, which spells trouble for the Commodores.

Give me the Wildcats to take out their frustrations on this lowly Vanderbilt team.

Pick: Kentucky -21 (Play to 23)

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