Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Picks, Predictions: Your SEC Betting Guide for Saturday (November 13)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Levis.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -1500 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +850 |
SEC play has been in full swing over the past month, and it hasn't been very kind to these two programs. This Saturday, either Kentucky or Vanderbilt will secure an elusive SEC win.
The Wildcats have been running the SEC East gauntlet and after starting strongly against LSU and Florida, they have dropped three straight.
Last week's loss in a shootout to Tennessee was especially tough for the Wildcats, with head coach Mark Stoops saying, "very difficult loss, not sure I've been a part of one like that. So good in so many ways, but not so good on other things."
A matchup with the Commodores may be just what Kentucky needs to right the ship. Vanderbilt has lost four straight and shown little signs of competing against superior competition.
Can the Wildcats bounce back, or will they show up flat coming off a season-crushing loss?
Kentucky Wildcats
Will the Wildcats Let Levis Cook?
Kentucky's success this season has been built around its offensive scheme that is designed to control the clock through the run game and lean on its dominant defense.
In last week's game against Tennessee, we saw a very different style of offense, though.
The Vols came out of the gates hot, connecting on multiple deep passes that led to quick scores. Instead of taking control of the pace, the Wildcats decided to fire back.
Kentucky quarterback Will Levis had his biggest game of the season, setting season highs in passing attempts and passing yardage. The uptick in passing volume allowed the Wildcats' offense to go score-for-score with the Volunteers.
Levis wound up putting the team on his back with five total touchdowns (three passing, two rushing).
While the increase in passing volume may have stolen the spotlight, the running game was still very effective. As a team, the Wildcats rushed for 225 at 4.6 per carry clip.
Kentucky should have very few issues against the Vanderbilt defense, which is one of the worst in the country. The Commodores rank outside of the top 100 in nearly every defensive statistical category and advanced metric.
Vanderbilt Commodores
This Season, Vandy is Not Dandy
The Commodores have had a rough season, to say the least. The simplest representation of that: They average just over 16 points per game but allow 37.
The Vanderbilt offense has been abysmal, ranking north of 120th in many team statistics and offensive metrics this season.
Oddly enough, the Commodores will actually have an edge through the air, as the Wildcats defense is 128th in Passing success Allowed, letting opposing quarterbacks complete over 70% of their passes.
Vandy might have a small edge there, but there should be doubts that it will do anything with it. The Commodores have only averaged 5.5 yards per completion this season, which ranks 126th.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 107 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 116 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 16 | 124 | |
| Big Play | 53 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 114 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 125 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 128 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 115 | 71 | |
| Big Play | 123 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 47 | 112 |
| Coverage | 47 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 121 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 62 | 120 |
| Plays per Minute | 114 | 70 |
| Rush Rate | 55.6% (58) | 49.8% (99) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Betting Pick
This spread may be high, but the disparity of this mismatch certainly backs the number. According to our Pro Projections, the spread should be close to 26.
As long as the Wildcats avoid a flat start they should be in total control of this game. Vanderbilt will not be able to slow them down on offense. We may also see a more concerted effort from Kentucky defensively after getting torched, which spells trouble for the Commodores.
Give me the Wildcats to take out their frustrations on this lowly Vanderbilt team.
Pick: Kentucky -21 (Play to 23)
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