Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Odds, Predictions, Picks: Betting Value Lies With Friday’s Over/Under (October 21)

Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Odds, Predictions, Picks: Betting Value Lies With Friday’s Over/Under (October 21) article feature image
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Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Odds

Thursday, Oct. 21
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Louisiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-18
-105
70
-110o / -110u
-900
Arkansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+18
-115
70
-110o / -110u
+600
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Few things make me happier than Sun Belt football — one of them being midweek Sun Belt football.

On Thursday night, the red-hot Ragin’ Cajuns will head to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to square off against the Red Wolves in this matchup of best vs. worst in the Sun Belt’s West Division.

Louisiana is coming off of a blowout win over App State in which it led by double digits from the end of the first quarter on. Since losing their first game of the season, the Ragin’ Cajuns have won five games in a row but have only covered the spread in two of the five.

Arkansas State has gone in the opposite direction, though. After winning its first outing, it has lost every game since and only covered the spread in two of those five losses.

Can Louisiana keep its streak alive on the road this week? Or will the Red Wolves find a way to get their season back on track?

More importantly, after opening at 15.5 and still climbing past 17.5, is this spread going to be too large for a Ragin’ Cajuns team that is 0-3 ATS on the road this year?


Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana Offense

Senior quarterback Levi Lewis has led a balanced Louisiana attack that averages 30.5 points and 405 yards per game. 

So far this year, Lewis has completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,305 yards while only throwing two interceptions and accounting for six touchdowns. Lewis also has an elite group of receivers, which makes his life even easier.

A huge benefit for Lewis has been a veteran offensive line that has been solid in pass protection, allowing only nine sacks in six games. And while it’s not the bulk of their offense the Ragin’ Cajuns’ rushing attack can be dangerous, with talent all the way down the depth chart. 

Four players alone have collectively accounted for 1,062 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground in six games


Louisiana Defense

On the opposite side of the ball, Louisiana defensive lineman Zi’Yon Hill leads the Ragin’ Cajuns in sacks and tackles for a loss. 

The Red Wolves’ high-powered passing attack will be put to the test against a veteran Louisiana defense that allows just 347 yards on 20 points per game.

Louisiana ranks in the top 50 in points per game, yards per play and is fourth in the nation at converting fourth downs. The defense ranks almost 100 spots higher than Arkansas State in rushing yards allowed and points per game. 

Billy Napier hopes to improve his career record against divisional foes to a perfect 14-0 with a win on Thursday night. Napier also will be in search of his 12th straight regular-season road win against Sun Belt competition.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have at points seemed unstoppable, most recently last week against App State. They limited the Mountaineers’ offense to just 211 yards and capitalized on four turnovers in the 41-13 victory.

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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Arkansas State Offense

The Red Wolves are very good offensively, averaging 440.2 yards on 30 points per game. Nearly all of their offense has come through a passing attack that ranks No. 1 in the Sun Belt.

The Red Wolves average 358.3 passing yards per game. 

Unfortunately, they will be without five-game starter James Blackman (shoulder injury) at quarterback on Thursday night.

Layne Hatcher, who has been splitting time under center and has had success, will be in his place. So far this year, Hatcher has connected on 57.4 percent of his passes for 806 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.


Arkansas State Defense

There is no team worse in all of D-I college football defensively overall than the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

They rank last in the FBS in yards allowed per game (584 per game), scoring defense (46.7 points per game), rushing yards allowed per carry (6.94) and yards allowed per pass attempt (10.3). 

As a result, they have surrendered 18 touchdowns on the ground and 18 additional scores through the air.


Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana and Arkansas State match up statistically:

Louisiana Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 47 101
Line Yards 41 116
Pass Success 71 112
Pass Blocking** 27 45
Big Play 12 123
Havoc 39 113
Finishing Drives 26 120
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 100 39
Line Yards 47 108
Pass Success 54 76
Pass Blocking** 72 78
Big Play 32 92
Havoc 115 93
Finishing Drives 103 22
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 116 127
Coverage 92 128
Middle 8 105 130
SP+ Special Teams 105 32
Plays per Minute 54 11
Rush Rate 55.2% (63) 35.8% (128)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Betting Pick

Louisiana leads the all-time series against Arkansas State, 26-20-1. 

The Ragin’ Cajuns have won each of the last three meetings in the series, including a 27-20 victory over the Red Wolves last season in Lafayette.

The over is 4-0 in the Ragin’ Cajuns’ last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The over is also 4-1 in the Red Wolves’ last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Arkansas State should be able to put some points on the scoreboard with its explosive passing game. But Louisiana will likely score points at will against the worst defense in the nation.

Because of that, I’m taking the over at 70, and I would take it up to 71.5

Pick: Over 70 (Play to 71.5)

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