College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for Michigan State vs. Indiana: How to Bet Saturday’s Key Big Ten Game

Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds

The undefeated Spartans roll into Memorial Stadium on Saturday to face a Hoosiers team that's still trying to figure out how to replicate last year's success.

While the Spartans are 6-0, I'm not sure that record tells the true story of this team. They've only beaten one ranked opponent and struggled against Nebraska just a few weeks ago. Michigan State hasn't faced any team — other than Nebraska — that has a challenging defense.

Unfortunately for Indiana, they also fall into the category of teams with nothing to brag about on defense. They have allowed every team — other than Idaho — to score at least 21 points so far this season.

Michigan State has its biggest test of the season next week in the Big House against Michigan. So, can the Hoosiers catch these Spartans looking ahead and get their first conference win of the season?

Saturday, Oct. 16

12 p.m. ET

FS1

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State Offense

Last week against Rutgers, quarterback Payton Thorne set a career-high in passing yards with 339 while recording three touchdowns and one interception.

Wide receiver Jalen Nailor also posted a record-breaking number with 221 receiving yards, the fourth-highest in school history. And it didn't stop there, as running back Kenneth Walker III recorded 233 yards on 29 carries.

Thorne, Nailor and Walker combined to become just the fifth trio in the FBS and first in Michigan State history to pass for 300 yards, run for 200 yards and total 200 receiving yards in the same game.

The Spartans rank 17th in the country in points per game (35.6) and 20th in the country in yards per game (467). But while they appear to be firing on all cylinders, head coach Mel Tucker says they have yet to play their best football.

To his point, against Rutgers, the Spartans committed nine penalties for 68 yards. Their offense also struggled in the second half, scoring only one touchdown.

My biggest and only concern for this Michigan State offense is getting caught looking ahead to Michigan. They cannot take their foot off the gas in the second half against the Hoosiers like they did against Rutgers.

Michigan State Defense

The Spartans' defense struggled at times against Rutgers, particularly in the middle of the field. But overall, the defense has been quite solid, limiting opponents to just 20.4 points per game this season.

Specifically, they have been great in defending the run, ranking 23rd in the nation in opponent rush yards per game (108).

The Spartans' weakness has been defending the pass, as they allow opponents to record 335 yards per game on average.

The team's saving grace, however, has been getting stops when it matters most. Opponents are only converting 37.08% of their third downs and scoring on 77% of their trips to the red zone, both ranking inside the top 60 in the nation.

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Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana Offense

Last season the Hoosiers beat Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan and gave Ohio State a run for their money. Collin Wilson's TARP grades measured them at 81% offensively and 73% defensively for this year.

So, what happened?

One possibility is that quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is still struggling with his return from injury.

Another big issue is their turnover luck has shifted.

Last year, the Hoosiers had 17 interceptions in their seven conference contests and 20 total takeaways in those games, both Big Ten bests. This year, however, on offense, they are averaging 2.2 turnovers per game, ranking 122nd in the country.

One thing is for sure, these are not the Hoosiers of last year. Indiana is 2-3 straight up, 1-4 ATS and 0-2 in conference games.

But could one player change that this week?

Coming off the bye week, Indiana head coach Tom Allen has stated Penix is week-to-week and says he will provide no further updates before kickoff.

So if Penix doesn't go, who is the quarterback?

The answer is a one-time Elite 11 prospect and transfer from Utah, Jack Tuttle, who went onto beat Wisconsin on the road last year when Penix got hurt.

In his college career, Tuttle has completed 57% of passes and he is familiar with the team after playing late last season and working with them in the offseason while Penix rehabbed.

Indiana is averaging just 15.8 points per game on 345 yards, but if Tuttle gets the start, I think this offense improves.

Be sure to keep an eye on that Saturday before the game.

Indiana Defense

Despite defensive coordinator Kane Wommack leaving for South Alabama in the offseason, this defense has produced at almost the same level as last season.

Their last game against Penn State, however, was a different story.

Against the Nittany Lions, the Hoosiers allowed 408 total yards, 209 of those coming on the ground. Indiana ranks 57th in the country in rush yards allowed per game (144), while also ranking 61st in pass yards allowed per game (229).

In total, the Hoosiers allow 374.2 yards per game and 31.8 points per game, both respectable numbers nationally. But they rank 112th in the country in opponent red zone scoring (93.7%).

This week against a Spartans team scoring on 95% of drives into the red zone, they will need to step up when it matters.

Michigan State vs. Indiana Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Indiana match up statistically:

Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	25	79
Line Yards	22	40
Pass Success	20	66
Pass Blocking**	42	92
Big Play	12	63
Havoc	36	86
Finishing Drives	67	103
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	99	62
Line Yards	105	65
Pass Success	119	74
Pass Blocking**	76	16
Big Play	97	24
Havoc	48	63
Finishing Drives	76	21
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	71	15
Coverage	52	60
Middle 8	21	107
SP+ Special Teams	79	78
Plays per Minute	39	73
Rush Rate	57.9% (47)	50.1% (89)

Michigan State vs. Indiana Betting Pick

While the Spartans have their biggest game of the season next week against Michigan, I don't think Indiana is good enough to beat them even if they are looking ahead.

Even if Tuttle gets the start, the gap between these teams on both sides of the ball is too large for me to consider anything other than Michigan State here.

I was able to get Michigan State earlier in the week at -3 (-115), which has now moved up to -4.5 at most shops. I still feel comfortable with the Spartans up to -6.5.

Pick: Michigan State -3 (Play to -6.5)