Missouri vs. Arkansas Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Battle Line Rivalry (November 26)

Missouri vs. Arkansas Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Battle Line Rivalry (November 26) article feature image
Credit:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Treylon Burks.

  • The Missouri Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks on Friday afternoon.
  • The Hogs enter as -14.5 favorites even after Mizzou's big win over Florida last week.
  • Check out Collin Wilson's full betting guide and pick.

Missouri vs. Arkansas Odds

Friday, Nov. 26
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Missouri Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14.5
-105
63.5
-110o / -110u
+475
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14.5
-115
63.5
-110o / -110u
-675
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

During the preseason, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman preached the four “B’s” as the goals for the Razorback football team in 2021.

With “Bowl” and “Boot” already getting the green check, the Hogs came up just short in a covering effort against “Bama.” Pittman has now focused on the final goal for the regular season: “Battle Line.”

Arkansas lost to Missouri in Columbia last season in a 98-point shootout that saw multiple injuries on both sides of the ball.

The Battle Line Rivalry trophy was created in 2015 in an effort to beef up a matchup that has only been played 12 times in the history of college football. Missouri has dominated the series in the SEC era, winning five of the six iterations.

Mizzou head coach Elijah Drinkwitz is coming off what might be the biggest victory in his short career as head coach — a 24-23 win over Florida. Missouri started the season off losing against the spread in eight straight games. The Tigers have now covered three straight and generated six wins to become bowl eligible.

Both Arkansas and Missouri had bowl cancellations due to COVID-19 last season, but the clinching win for Missouri came at the expense of Dan Mullen at Florida.

Florida and Missouri had on-field fighting in the 2020 game, further agitated by Mullen doing a post-game press conference in full Darth Vader gear. Drinkwitz had a classic response this past weekend in not only reaching bowl eligibility but trolling the now unemployed Mullen.

Here’s Drinkwitz executing a fantastic troll on Dan Mullen. Some poetic justice that Mullen acted like a complete buffoon in last year’s game and Drinkwitz probably just guaranteed the end to his Florida tenure with that win. pic.twitter.com/KZowLK1uKf

— T.J. Moe (@TJMoe28) November 21, 2021


Missouri Tigers

If any coach outside the state of Arkansas knows how loud Donald W. Reynolds Stadium can get, its Drinkwitz. The current Missouri coach is an Arkansas Tech alum.

Once Gus Malzahn and the “Springdale 5” made it into the college ranks, Drinkwitz made his way to Springdale High School as the new offensive coordinator.

The coach made mention of how close he was in proximity to the University of Arkansas in his Monday press conference. Eventually, Drinkwitz would make it to the Auburn staff as a quality control coach under Malzahn, but his career as a head coach quickly took off in stints at Appalachian State, NC State and now bowl-bound Missouri.

As called on Missouri Tigers radio: pic.twitter.com/Nz0jP5IToL

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) November 21, 2021

Drinkwitz now has the inevitable task of getting the Tigers to avoid a hangover after clinching a postseason berth.

Quarterback Connor Bazelak leads an offense that favors the pass out of the 11 formation mixed with heavy run in a two-tight end set.

The offensive line has done a fantastic job keeping pressure out of the pocket, but the explosiveness of previous Missouri teams has not been there. The Tigers are 101st in big-play percentage, which calculates the number of explosive rush and pass plays.

The defense has also had a large share of issues in ranking bottom-10 in the country in defending the run, preventing the big play and Finishing Drives. Missouri is 121st in red-zone defense, an area of focus for the Razorbacks’ offensive line and multi-player rushing unit.

Special teams have also been an area of strength for the Tigers, as they’re the No. 1 team in the nation in field goal efficiency.

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Arkansas Razorbacks

Pittman spent the majority of the Alabama post-game presser dodging questions about the differences between Alabama and Georgia. The Bulldogs shut out the Hogs’ rush attack, but Pittman stated, “We never felt like we could not run the ball against Alabama.”

Arkansas was stuffed on 46% of runs against the Crimson Tide and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. Despite the low total in the rushing game, Arkansas posted a 61% Success Rate in standard downs, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Alabama front seven.

The Hogs ran twice as many plays in standard downs than passing downs against an Alabama defense that is headed to the SEC Championship game.

The health of Treylon Burks was in question, as he was helped off the field at the end of the game in Tuscaloosa. Pittman put those questions to rest in the Monday press conference, a positive sign for the Razorbacks. Burks has 76 targets on the season, more than the next three wide receivers combined.

The Hogs will attempt to stay out of passing downs and run clock to keep the Missouri offense off the field.

Foot race advantage: Mr. Burks pic.twitter.com/XBjV5BhQtg

— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) November 20, 2021

Defensive coordinator Barry Odom has done a magnificent job resurrecting the Arkansas defenders over the past 14 months. The former Missouri head coach brought his nickel and dime packages to Fayetteville and rebuilt the defensive line through the transfer portal.

Arkansas has played its best defense when getting teams behind schedule and in opponent scoring opportunities.

Arkansas ranks 10th in Passing Downs Success Rate on defense, generating plenty of punts this season. Odom’s defense is designed to give up yards on the field, but a rank of 30th in Finishing Drives is complemented by a top-25 unit in red zone touchdown scoring.

The linebacker trio of Grant Morgan, Bumper Pool and Hayden Henry are three of the top individual tacklers in the nation.


Missouri vs. Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Arkansas match up statistically:

Missouri Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 44
Line Yards 85 29
Pass Success 53 60
Pass Blocking** 20 48
Big Play 101 34
Havoc 47 59
Finishing Drives 51 30
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 30 120
Line Yards 42 95
Pass Success 52 95
Pass Blocking** 42 54
Big Play 12 120
Havoc 94 72
Finishing Drives 95 122
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 86 41
Coverage 70 79
Middle 8 57 42
SP+ Special Teams 10 53
Plays per Minute 55 31
Rush Rate 48.8% (101) 64.5% (8)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Missouri vs. Arkansas Betting Pick

Pittman is due a $250,000 dollar bonus in achieving his eighth win of the season, while Odom is seeking revenge against a program that fired him just 24 months ago.

There’s plenty of motivation for Arkansas to close out the season with a victory, aiming for the highest bowl placement possible. Our Brett McMurphy projects Arkansas to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, but a bump could lead to a more prestigious New Year’s Day game in Tampa or Orlando.

There are heavy advantages for Arkansas in this game on both sides of the ball. The Razorback rushing attack continues to be one of the most physical in the SEC, an advantage against a Missouri defense that is near dead last in defending the rush and 98th in Stuff Rate.

When KJ Jefferson is forced into passing downs, an injury-ridden Missouri secondary must cover Burks.

The Missouri offense has not been the same since Bazelak returned from injury. Since Week 7, the quarterback has posted just two big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays.

Bazelak has posted his two worst adjusted completion percentage games of the season over the past two weeks against South Carolina and Florida.

Arkansas has been a top-25 team in point differential over the first quarter this season at +3.64. That is in stark contrast to Missouri’s rank outside the top 100 at -1.73.

Considering this is a hangover spot on the road for the Tigers, look for Arkansas to get up in this game quick.

Pick: Arkansas 1Q -3.5 or Better · Arkansas 1H -7.5 or Better

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