College Football Odds & Picks for Missouri vs. Boston College: Why You Should Back The Eagles

College Football Odds & Picks for Missouri vs. Boston College: Why You Should Back The Eagles article feature image
Credit:

Cody Glenn/Getty Images. Pictured: Dennis Grosel

  • Missouri travels to face Boston College in a non-conference game at Chestnut Hill.
  • The Tigers dropped 59 points on SEMO in Week 3 while the Eagles shut Temple down to just three points.
  • Kyle Remillard gives you everything you need to know about his matchup, including a best bet.

Missouri vs. Boston College Odds

Missouri Odds -1.5 (-115)
Boston College Odds +1.5 (-105
Moneyline -125 / +105
Over/Under 58 (-115 / -105)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

This is the game of the year to this point for the Boston College Eagles, who welcome the Missouri Tigers to New England.

Boston College had high hopes for this season behind second-year quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The Notre Dame transfer is expected to be out for the season after getting surgery on a significant hand injury that occurred on the opening drive against UMass.

It was a blow to the program, but the season is not lost as they have an experienced backup in Dennis Grosel. The Eagles will also lean on their dominant defense and strong run game for the remainder of the season.

Second-year head coach Eliah Drinkwitz looks to continue to improve the Tigers’ program after a 5-5 season last year. They return just 53% of their offensive production and 69% of the defensive production, according to TARP.

Neither of these teams have faced quality competition apart from Missouri’s 35-28 loss to Kentucky in Week 2. This matchup will tell us a lot about these two programs and where they stand at this point in the season.


Missouri vs. Boston College Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
Noon ET
ESPN2

Missouri Tigers

Missouri Offense

The offense is spearheaded by the one-two punch of quarterback Connor Bazelak and running back Tyler Badie.

Bazelak is a redshirt sophomore who has thrown for nine touchdowns to just one interception through three games. He’s averaging 300 passing yards per game while putting up 7.9 yards per attempt.

Badie, a senior, has been the workhorse in the backfield, averaging 7.2 yards per carry on his 48 attempts this season. He’s logged three touchdowns and is averaging over 115 rushing yards per game. He’s also Bazelak’s top target, leading the team in receptions and hauling in three more touchdowns through the air.

The Tigers own an efficient offense that ranks inside the top-30 in both Rush Success and Pass Success. The Boston College defense will be by far the toughest challenge this offense has faced yet.


Missouri Defense

The Tigers’ defense has been the biggest disappointment at this point in the season. There was no doubt it needed to improve from last year’s numbers, but instead, the unit has taken another step backward. The Tigers allowed 457 yards to a MAC offense and nearly 300 yards on the ground against an FCS opponent.

Giving up 30 points per game and ranking 121st in the country in total defense is not where Drinkwitz imagined they’d be through three games. They’ve been prone to allowing big plays, where they rank nearly dead-last in the country.

Mizzou hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground, ranking 123rd in Rushing Success. The Tigers allowed 6.3 yards per carry against Central Michigan, Kentucky and SEMO.

This front seven will have its work cut out for it against one of the top rushing attacks in the country.

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Boston College Eagles

Boston College Offense

With Jurkovec sidelined, Boston College hands the keys to Grosel.

The former walk-on has seen plenty of playing time over the last two seasons replacing Anthony Brown and Jurkovec when injured. He’s started eight games and has thrown 17 touchdowns to seven interceptions.

Last season, he averaged more than 10.5 yards per pass attempt and completed 69% of his passes. Grosel proved he has big-game potential when he tied the school record against Virginia with 520 passing yards.

The offensive metrics are a bit skewed due to the soft schedule that BC has faced thus far. The Eagles have averaged 41.3 points per game, but that comes against the likes of Colgate, UMass and Temple.

The Eagles run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. They’ve averaged 200 yards per game on the ground and have scored three rushing touchdowns in all three matchups.

They rank 11th in Rushing Success Rate and will lean on that against a Missouri defense that has been shredded on the ground.


Boston College Defense

The defense is the backbone of this program.

The unit is allowing just 10.3 points per game this season, but that will be tested as Boston College steps up in class against an SEC opponent.

The defense ranks 29th in Defensive Rushing Success and 36th in Defensive Passing Success. The Eagles have been particularly stout with limiting big plays, where they rank fourth in the nation and are not allowing teams to finish drives.

The Eagles have been elite at getting off the field on third downs. Boston College has allowed opponents to convert on an astounding 5-of-32 attempts, good for a conversion rate of 15.6%.

That statistic could be pivotal against a Missouri offense that converted only 1-of-11 third-down attempts versus Central Michigan.

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Missouri vs. Boston College Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Boston College match up statistically:

Missouri Offense vs. Boston College Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 21 29
Line Yards 54 37
Pass Success 29 26
Pass Blocking** 33 76
Big Play 29 4
Havoc 37 30
Finishing Drives 29 7
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Boston College Offense vs. Missouri Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 11 123
Line Yards 91 127
Pass Success 19 63
Pass Blocking** 2 16
Big Play 50 128
Havoc 30 33
Finishing Drives 32 107
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 71 8
PFF Coverage 54 8
Middle 8 22 55
SP+ Special Teams 1 8
Plays per Minute 32 108
Rush Rate 43.5% (118) 65.3% (16)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Missouri vs. Boston College Betting Pick

Although the loss of Jurkovec was devastating, there’s not an enormous drop-off to his backup Grosel.

Grosel is an experienced and underrated quarterback, who has been efficient when he’s seen the field.

The Boston College rushing attack is elite and should shred through this Missouri front-seven, which will allow Grosel to be more of a game manager.

Badie has contributed 32% of the total yards from scrimmage for Missouri and is the heartbeat of this offense. Boston College’s defense is one of the top groups in the country and will focus their attention on slowing down Badie, forcing someone else to step up.

The wrong team is favored in this game and I am backing Boston College at home both with the points and the moneyline.

Pick: Boston College + 2

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