Navy vs. Temple Odds & Picks: Fade the Owls Once Again
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Picture: A football belonging to the Navy Midshipmen.
- The Navy Midshipmen take on the Temple Owls in Saturday college football action.
- The Midshipmen enter as -13.5 favorites, according to updated odds.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and shares his top betting pick below.
Navy vs. Temple Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Temple has played the last six games like its season actually ended in October after the Owls beat Memphis on Oct. 3 to secure a 3-2 record.
The Owls have lost six in a row, all by at least 20 points. They haven't exactly run through a gauntlet of daunting opponents in these games either, getting blown out by UCF, South Florida and Tulsa, along with much better opponents mixed in.
Navy has had a season to forget at 2-8 and won't be bowling, but the Midshipmen do still have two games left this year, including Army next week as a potential look-ahead spot.
Despite the potentially bad spot for Navy, the Temple program is in shambles, as many are calling for head coach Rod Carey to be fired and highly-touted transfer quarterback D'Wan Mathis entered the transfer portal midseason.
Even though it's dangerous to lay large numbers with the Midshipmen given their style of play, Navy is the only look here given Temple's questionable motivation this month.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy's triple option hasn't been as dominant offensively as it has been in years past, as the Midshipmen are 43rd in Rushing Success Rate but just 79th in Offensive Line Yards.
Navy's been better than its record indicates, though, as it's lost one-score games to Cincinnati, Houston, SMU and East Carolina, all of which are four of the top teams in the conference.
The Midshipmen have an excellent defensive line based on Line Yards, and that unit should be able to easily shut down a Temple rushing attack that has produced very little for the last month.
Where Navy can be exploited defensively is through the air, as it generates little to no pass rush, grades poorly in coverage and allows plenty of success.
But given the inefficiencies Temple backup quarterback Justin Lynch has had throwing in recent weeks, it's hard to envision the Owls successfully passing.
Navy will test Temple's eye discipline. They'll make the Owls stay on the field for long drives and dominate the time of possession. Navy has a way of frustrating defenses by forcing them to tackle on every single play, and it's hard to see Temple matching that intensity if it's not all-in here.
Temple Owls
The handicap on Navy games is typically pretty simple:
- How well does the opposing team tackle?
- How disciplined is it?
- How well-coached is it?
- What's the Defensive Line Yards number?
Temple fails all of those tests.
The Owls rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 91st in Line Yards. Temple is below-average in Power Success Rate defensively as well, meaning it struggles to stop runs on third-and-short and fourth-and-short. The result is long Navy drives resulting in points.
Offensively, the Owls haven't scored more than 14 points since Oct. 2, and that's primarily because they've had field-goal kicking woes, red-zone offense struggles and an inability to establish any consistent passing success.
Temple is bottom-10 in Passing Success Rate, bottom-10 in Finishing Drives, bottom-20 in pass blocking and has next to no explosiveness on offense.
While it's hard for Navy to gain a scoring margin, the Owls offense probably won't be scoring many touchdowns even if they move the ball down toward the 20.
Navy vs. Temple Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Temple match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. Temple Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 87 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 126 | 83 | |
| Big Play | 131 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Temple Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 124 | 104 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 111 | 129 | |
| Big Play | 99 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 91 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 87 | 119 |
| Coverage | 124 | 122 |
| Middle 8 | 119 | 120 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 70 | 126 |
| Plays per Minute | 128 | 80 |
| Rush Rate | 88.1% (2) | 49.3% (98) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Navy vs. Temple Betting Pick
Laying 12.5 with a service academy is always a dangerous game because the Midshipmen play at an extremely slow pace, take a long time to move down the field and often struggle to gain a margin.
It makes them an excellent big underdog of two touchdowns or more but also makes them a bad big favorite.
The exception to that is when the opponent has no way to stop explosive plays, poor tackling metrics and questionable motivation. Temple has all three of those defensively and hasn't been competitive with any FBS program in two months.
Maybe the Owls will give an all-in effort here for the last game, but the injuries are mounting, the quarterback has left, and the coach may be gone next. There's nothing positive for this Temple program, which is unbettable at this number.
Navy should make for another 20-point defeat for the Owls.
Pick: Navy -12.5
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