Navy vs. Temple Odds & Picks: Fade the Owls Once Again

Navy vs. Temple Odds & Picks: Fade the Owls Once Again article feature image
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Rob Carr/Getty Images. Picture: A football belonging to the Navy Midshipmen.

  • The Navy Midshipmen take on the Temple Owls in Saturday college football action.
  • The Midshipmen enter as -13.5 favorites, according to updated odds.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and shares his top betting pick below.

Navy vs. Temple Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27
12 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Navy Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-13.5
-105
43
-110o / -110u
-550
Temple Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+13.5
-115
43
-110o / -110u
+400
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Temple has played the last six games like its season actually ended in October after the Owls beat Memphis on Oct. 3 to secure a 3-2 record.

The Owls have lost six in a row, all by at least 20 points. They haven’t exactly run through a gauntlet of daunting opponents in these games either, getting blown out by UCF, South Florida and Tulsa, along with much better opponents mixed in.

Navy has had a season to forget at 2-8 and won’t be bowling, but the Midshipmen do still have two games left this year, including Army next week as a potential look-ahead spot.

Despite the potentially bad spot for Navy, the Temple program is in shambles, as many are calling for head coach Rod Carey to be fired and highly-touted transfer quarterback D’Wan Mathis entered the transfer portal midseason.

Even though it’s dangerous to lay large numbers with the Midshipmen given their style of play, Navy is the only look here given Temple’s questionable motivation this month.


Navy Midshipmen

Navy’s triple option hasn’t been as dominant offensively as it has been in years past, as the Midshipmen are 43rd in Rushing Success Rate but just 79th in Offensive Line Yards.

Navy’s been better than its record indicates, though, as it’s lost one-score games to Cincinnati, Houston, SMU and East Carolina, all of which are four of the top teams in the conference.

The Midshipmen have an excellent defensive line based on Line Yards, and that unit should be able to easily shut down a Temple rushing attack that has produced very little for the last month.

Where Navy can be exploited defensively is through the air, as it generates little to no pass rush, grades poorly in coverage and allows plenty of success.

But given the inefficiencies Temple backup quarterback Justin Lynch has had throwing in recent weeks, it’s hard to envision the Owls successfully passing.

Navy will test Temple’s eye discipline. They’ll make the Owls stay on the field for long drives and dominate the time of possession. Navy has a way of frustrating defenses by forcing them to tackle on every single play, and it’s hard to see Temple matching that intensity if it’s not all-in here.

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Temple Owls

The handicap on Navy games is typically pretty simple:

  • How well does the opposing team tackle?
  • How disciplined is it?
  • How well-coached is it?
  • What’s the Defensive Line Yards number?

Temple fails all of those tests.

The Owls rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 91st in Line Yards. Temple is below-average in Power Success Rate defensively as well, meaning it struggles to stop runs on third-and-short and fourth-and-short. The result is long Navy drives resulting in points.

Offensively, the Owls haven’t scored more than 14 points since Oct. 2, and that’s primarily because they’ve had field-goal kicking woes, red-zone offense struggles and an inability to establish any consistent passing success.

Temple is bottom-10 in Passing Success Rate, bottom-10 in Finishing Drives, bottom-20 in pass blocking and has next to no explosiveness on offense.

While it’s hard for Navy to gain a scoring margin, the Owls offense probably won’t be scoring many touchdowns even if they move the ball down toward the 20.


Navy vs. Temple Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Temple match up statistically:

Navy Offense vs. Temple Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 108
Line Yards 79 91
Pass Success 129 87
Pass Blocking** 126 83
Big Play 131 95
Havoc 98 91
Finishing Drives 61 126
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Temple Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 64
Line Yards 87 15
Pass Success 124 104
Pass Blocking** 111 129
Big Play 99 110
Havoc 68 82
Finishing Drives 127 91
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 87 119
Coverage 124 122
Middle 8 119 120
SP+ Special Teams 70 126
Plays per Minute 128 80
Rush Rate 88.1% (2) 49.3% (98)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Navy vs. Temple Betting Pick

Laying 12.5 with a service academy is always a dangerous game because the Midshipmen play at an extremely slow pace, take a long time to move down the field and often struggle to gain a margin.

It makes them an excellent big underdog of two touchdowns or more but also makes them a bad big favorite.

The exception to that is when the opponent has no way to stop explosive plays, poor tackling metrics and questionable motivation. Temple has all three of those defensively and hasn’t been competitive with any FBS program in two months.

Maybe the Owls will give an all-in effort here for the last game, but the injuries are mounting, the quarterback has left, and the coach may be gone next. There’s nothing positive for this Temple program, which is unbettable at this number.

Navy should make for another 20-point defeat for the Owls.

Pick: Navy -12.5 

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