College Football Odds & Picks for North Texas vs. Missouri: Betting Guide for Non-Conference Duel

College Football Odds & Picks for North Texas vs. Missouri: Betting Guide for Non-Conference Duel article feature image
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  • Missouri hosts North Texas after losing two straight to Boston College and Tennessee.
  • The Tigers could be looking ahead to a critical SEC matchup vs. Texas A&M next week.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the duel and offers up his best bet.

North Texas vs. Missouri Odds

North Texas Odds +18.5 (-110)
Missouri Odds -18.5 (-110)
Moneyline +700 / -1125
Over/Under 69.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 4 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

North Texas has enjoyed some success against the Power Five in the Seth Littrell era, tripping up Arkansas in 2018 and nearly beating Cal in its own building the following year.

Missouri’s next up on the checklist.

The Tigers enter Week 6 deflated, particularly on defense, where they’ve given up more than 100 points total the last two weeks.

The market’s expecting a high-scoring affair, pushing the total up a few points from open.

Let’s dive into the entertaining non-con tilt and see where the value’s at.


North Texas vs. Missouri Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
4 p.m. ET
SEC Network

North Texas Mean Green

North Texas Offense

Both Jace Ruder and Austin Aune have taken snaps under center, but neither has been the answer.

The tandem’s collectively posted more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four) this season, with just 4.7 yards per attempt.

The running game picked up an even five yards a pop on the ground last season but has been limited to just 3.6 against three mid-majors and FCS Northwestern State.

Only two Mean Green receivers have more than seven receptions on the year, while their top deep threat — Jyaire Shorter, 17.8 YPC in 2021 — is out indefinitely.


North Texas Defense

North Texas set a low bar in 2020, allowing 31 or more points in nine of its 10 contests. The defense still can’t wrap up (117th in tackling), but it’s been marginally better this fall, giving up just north of 28.

The Mean Green’s ability to get after the quarterback has helped out the secondary. They rank 11th in pass rush, in turn, grading out as a top-15 unit in Pass Success.

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Missouri Tigers

Missouri Offense

The Tigers are running at a quick pace (fringe top-25 nationally in plays per minute) and picking up chunks through the air, ranking seventh in Pass Success.

The only problem is the offense has had to play a whole lot of catch-up.

Missouri’s ninth in the country in pass-play rate (60.2%) — probably not ideal when you employ a running back in Tyler Badie, who ripped off north of seven yards per carry over the first three weeks.

However, Boston College and Tennessee did whatever offensively the last two weeks, forcing quarterback Connor Bazelak and the offense into a negative game script.


Missouri Defense

“Hey, Siri: Show me how Missouri’s defense has fared over its last eight games dating back to last season.”

“OK. Here’s what I found. But if you bet unders, please be aware this is not a pretty sight.”

Missouri Defense (Last 8)

Opponent Team Total Points Scored
Tennessee 31.5 62
Boston College 30.5 41
SEMO 13.5 28
Kentucky 24.5 35
Central Michigan 23.5 24
Mississippi State 24.5 51
Georgia 34.5 49
Arkansas 25.5 48

In layman’s terms: the Tigers are giving up points — in bunches. They’ve been particularly brutal as a favorite, allowing 42.8 points per contest over the last five.

Only Arkansas State is surrendering more yards on the ground per game (318.5) than Missouri’s 311.5 this season. The Tigers are in the basement of the nation in Finishing Drives, as well as bottom-10 in big play.


North Texas vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and Missouri match up statistically:

North Texas Offense vs. Missouri Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
75
128
Line Yards
35
23
Pass Success
116
5
Pass Blocking**
124
41
Big Play
110
121
Havoc
38
104
Finishing Drives
69
130
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Missouri Offense vs. North Texas Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
72
58
Line Yards
94
59
Pass Success
7
15
Pass Blocking**
23
11
Big Play
53
98
Havoc
33
64
Finishing Drives
52
103
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
107
102
PFF Coverage
117
90
Middle 8
97
36
SP+ Special Teams
98
1
Plays per Minute
6
26
Rush Rate
54.8% (66)
41.3% (124)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


North Texas vs. Missouri Betting Pick

This looks like a track meet on paper, but it has all the makings of a get-right spot for Missouri’s defense.

The market can’t seem to find a pulse on North Texas totals. The Mean Green are the only Conference USA club without an ‘over’ this season, and it hasn’t even been close — all four games have missed the closing total by at least seven points.

The North Texas offense from a few years ago would have salivated over this matchup, but Littrell doesn’t have enough weapons to keep pace on the scoreboard.

Missouri hasn’t been on script in weeks, but that’ll change as a 19.5-point favorite. No barn burner in Columbia this week.

Pick: Under 69.5 (Play to 68)

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